Get the defence sorted and we’re contenders?

[bcfcredandwhite]

At the time of posting this I think we’ve given away 25 points from winning positions (trusting Sky punditry). 
We will always let SOME leads slip or there would be no score draws, but 25 points is a lot. With those points we’d be 3rd on 77 (ok as I said we would have dropped SOME of them anyway) 
Looking at the league table, we have been scoring quite well - 57 goals - more than Sheffield U (56) - and only QPR have scored more (58) outside the top 5. 
So, on goals scored we are 7th in the league. The reason we are where we are is our defence. 
we’ve been better of late - and if we get it sorted for next season there’s no reason why we can’t be up there around the top 6. 

Edited April 24, 2022 by bcfcredandwhite
Hadn’t finished!!

[bcfc01]

11 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

At the time of posting this I think we’ve given away 25 points from winning positions (trusting Sky punditry). 
We will always let SOME leads slip or there would be no score draws, but 25 points is a lot. With those points we’d be 3rd on 77 (ok as I said we would have dropped SOME of them anyway) 
Looking at the league table, we have been scoring quite well - 57 goals - more than Sheffield U (56) - and only QPR have scored more (58) outside the top 5. 
So, on goals scored we are 7th in the league. The reason we are where we are is our defence. 
we’ve been better of late - and if we get it sorted for next season there’s no reason why we can’t be up there around the top 6. 

Or, more specifically, our defending.

[Fuber]

39 minutes ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

At the time of posting this I think we’ve given away 25 points from winning positions (trusting Sky punditry). 
We will always let SOME leads slip or there would be no score draws, but 25 points is a lot. With those points we’d be 3rd on 77 (ok as I said we would have dropped SOME of them anyway) 
Looking at the league table, we have been scoring quite well - 57 goals - more than Sheffield U (56) - and only QPR have scored more (58) outside the top 5. 
So, on goals scored we are 7th in the league. The reason we are where we are is our defence. 
we’ve been better of late - and if we get it sorted for next season there’s no reason why we can’t be up there around the top 6. 

I'd actually say barring Peterborough the defence has markedly improved - the issue being these same games have had a Cundy-Klose-Atkinson combination at the back.

I actually wouldn't be averse to selling Kalas at this moment in time, moving on the likes of Taylor-Moore, Vyner; need to find out the situation with Baker this summer and see if enforced retirement is needed, which would be covered by insurance in best case scenario(?).

I think one of the weaker points may actually be keeper. O'Leary is at a stage where he needs games, and barring the odd wonder-save, Bents does give me kittens when he comes off of his line, for anything, I.e. Sheff Utd.

What we need most of all is proper fullbacks. Especially RB, where its just Tanner on paper.

Who knows.

No matter what, despite early signs, it's going to be an interesting summer.

[Waconda]

7 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

Or, more specifically, our defending.

and lack of organisation when we don't have the ball. 

Has been pub league standard until the last 3 games.

[Major Isewater]

We can hope but we all know that next season we could equally have a tight defence and the forwards misfiring. 

[ExiledAjax]

We need to sort the defence yes, and that is probably the priority. However we musn't rest on our laurels regarding attack.

If you look at the last ten matches then you see the only games in which we've registered 10 or more shots are against Barnsley, Birmingham, Peterborough and Derby. Derby is the only game where we managed more than 15 shots, with more than 5 on target. Against better teams we are struggling to create a large number of chances, and rely on our good finishing to get our goals.

Similarly, I'd urge anyone expecting a second 20 goal season from Weimann to reconsider. He's more likely to regress to a performance in line with his career averages so far. Those figures suggest that 12-15 is a more likely goal total than 20. Still respectable, buy not the exceptional performance we've seen this year. Another 20 is possible, but it's not probable.

Add in the possibility of Semenyo leaving, and Martin not getting younger, and I think we need to keep trying to improve in attack as well as defence.

[SecretSam]

I do wonder if the problem is the players, or the way they are playing. The lack of a RWB/RB is a big problem.

And let's be honest, up front AW and Martin have massively over-performed this season. Antoine, if he stays, needs to bag more next season, but I think he has it in him.

[Waconda]

25 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We need to sort the defence yes, and that is probably the priority. However we musn't rest on our laurels regarding attack.

If you look at the last ten matches then you see the only games in which we've registered 10 or more shots are against Barnsley, Birmingham, Peterborough and Derby. Derby is the only game where we managed more than 15 shots, with more than 5 on target. Against better teams we are struggling to create a large number of chances, and rely on our good finishing to get our goals.

Similarly, I'd urge anyone expecting a second 20 goal season from Weimann to reconsider. He's more likely to regress to a performance in line with his career averages so far. Those figures suggest that 12-15 is a more likely goal total than 20. Still respectable, buy not the exceptional performance we've seen this year. Another 20 is possible, but it's not probable.

Add in the possibility of Semenyo leaving, and Martin not getting younger, and I think we need to keep trying to improve in attack as well as defence.

Academic because Weimann will be scoring 20 goals for a different team in all probability.

[redsquirrel]

Mentality from the halfway line back to bents is a big issue.is it zonal marking,switching off or leaving things for someone else to deal with? I dont know but far too often, the ball comes straight through with no one trying to stop it

[GrahamC]

No chance are we going to be “contenders” but being defensively sounder next season means we can at least look up the table, not down.

[KegCity]

Full back and central midfield are the areas needing upgrades. Think we're ok at the back, just going to need a replacement for Baker, probably sell Kalas and give Klose a new contract. Stopping the ball reaching the centre backs has been our main problem, either through not preventing crosses or getting passed around in midfield.

[Tin Soldier]

Get the defence, midfield, forwards sorted and we will be contenders. Otherwise another season of struggle……

[City oz]

1 hour ago, Major Isewater said:

We can hope but we all know that next season we could equally have a tight defence and the forwards misfiring. 

Be positive major. Let us hope NP has all this planned and covered.

[AshtonGreat]

1 hour ago, SecretSam said:

I do wonder if the problem is the players, or the way they are playing. The lack of a RWB/RB is a big problem.

And let's be honest, up front AW and Martin have massively over-performed this season. Antoine, if he stays, needs to bag more next season, but I think he has it in him.

Seven goals is massively overperforming?

[Major Isewater]

16 minutes ago, AshtonGreat said:

Seven goals is massively overperforming?

He has ten and for an OAP to play as many games as he has, he has  ‘ massively ‘ overperformed . 

[Waconda]

47 minutes ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Oddly, i don't think it's the defence itself that's the issue per se. I've had this conversation elsewhere, but it's midfield and lack of constant possession that's the problem meaning we get under seige, alot of the time. 

Considering that the defenders themselves do pretty well. Kalas had been playing with an injury for a long time and, since then, Bents in goal and some woeful finishing has kept scores down in the main. 

Organisation wasnt ever the issue, barring maybe corners. 

You can only have so much pressure before conceding no matter how much the defence is good or not. 

Massengo Scott and a 'screener' work well but we rarely see it at the moment. 

We have been poorly organised and drilled defensively as a TEAM for most of the season.

The constant blaming of individuals is a nice deflection but you don't have to be a highly qualified coach to have seen the lack of any organisation when we don't have the ball. leading to our defenders having to defend in "Alamo", last ditch style for long periods of games and in that scenario eventually some individual mistakes are bound to happen.

Better coaching and a decent defensive midfielder (Ben Pearson like) would help immensely.

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Waconda

[KegCity]

14 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

He has ten and for an OAP to play as many games as he has, he has  ‘ massively ‘ overperformed . 

If he plays as many minutes next season I would expect another 10. Think Weimann will be up there again if he spends more time up front.

[Major Isewater]

39 minutes ago, City oz said:

Be positive major. Let us hope NP has all this planned and covered.

I am sure he has but we all know football don’t we? 
Despite the idea that there are only two or three clubs who win anything every year if you go back ten years , then ten years again where were Man City , Liverpool or Man Utd? 
The beauty of the game is the dream that it could be your season next season, normally shot down by October … or that one of your players is going to have an outstanding one and turn into Pèle. 

[Red-Robbo]

I agree with those that say the midfield is the real issue. 

We have some very talented players there, but no one who really breaks up opposition play. James and Williams, whose role that should really be, have been disappointing in that sense. 

I was thinking about how Gary Johnson took a fairly ordinary team of players to the play-off final in 2008 and the thing I remember in that season and others around it was how important Marvin Elliott was at occupying that space right in the middle of the park and preventing opponents running in on the defence from distance. Bradley Orr's defensive work from distance was great too, but it was Marv more often than not who could cut down opponents' options, slow down their attacks or totally neutralise them. 

No one would say Marv was the most "cultured" footballer out there and going forward, he was decent but not outstanding.

However it was hard to just run past him, and that's what we need.

We need a Marv. 

[Bris Red]

15 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

I agree with those that say the midfield is the real issue. 

We have some very talented players there, but no one who really breaks up opposition play. James and Williams, whose role that should really be, have been disappointing in that sense. 

I was thinking about how Gary Johnson took a fairly ordinary team of players to the play-off final in 2008 and the thing I remember in that season and others around it was how important Marvin Elliott was at occupying that space right in the middle of the park and preventing opponents running in on the defence from distance. Bradley Orr's defensive work from distance was great too, but it was Marv more often than not who could cut down opponents' options, slow down their attacks or totally neutralise them. 

No one would say Marv was the most "cultured" footballer out there and going forward, he was decent but not outstanding.

However it was hard to just run past him, and that's what we need.

We need a Marv. 

The Marv of 07/08 or the 17/18 Korey Smith is what is needed. A player with high energy who is tenacious and aggressive and who can get about people and break the play up whilst not being out injured for long periods!

Obviously not easy players to find but you are just hoping Pearson can work some magic in the summer and find a player of this ilk on a free.

I’d imagine (and hope) he has a list of potential targets already..

Edited April 25, 2022 by bris red

[1960maaan]

1 hour ago, Tafkarmlf said:

Oddly, i don't think it's the defence itself that's the issue per se. I've had this conversation elsewhere, but it's midfield and lack of constant possession that's the problem meaning we get under seige, alot of the time. 

Considering that the defenders themselves do pretty well. Kalas had been playing with an injury for a long time and, since then, Bents in goal and some woeful finishing has kept scores down in the main. 

Organisation wasnt ever the issue, barring maybe corners. 

You can only have so much pressure before conceding no matter how much the defence is good or not. 

Massengo Scott and a 'screener' work well but we rarely see it at the moment. 

Agree.

That midfield has been massively hampered by injuries, Williams, King , James , the more experienced parts of the midfield have all been out for long spells. Scott has been forced to play WB, which has also meant we have struggled for continuity. We have started to be a little more consistent with our MF, rotating 2 from 3. The CBs have had chance to play together, and I think having Klose helping the younger 2 has been important.
James , Williams and HNM (if he stays, big if possibly) is the basis of a good central midfield.  We could probably do with one addition.

The CB situation is wide open. Kalas could go, we're not 100% sure what Pearson thinks of Cundy & Klose. Atkinson is probably the only one you can say will be here next season. Add Tanner & DaSilva, there must be a question over Pring because of his recent absences . 
I'd guess Cundy and Klose will stay, Kalas would be either the 4th CB or sold to raise funds for new blood. 

We have looked more solid lately, but with possibly a bit of a turnover possible, this summer makes it hard to know where we actually are.

I am not looking forward to all the speculation.

[TheReds]

11 hours ago, bcfcredandwhite said:

At the time of posting this I think we’ve given away 25 points from winning positions (trusting Sky punditry). 
We will always let SOME leads slip or there would be no score draws, but 25 points is a lot. With those points we’d be 3rd on 77 (ok as I said we would have dropped SOME of them anyway) 
Looking at the league table, we have been scoring quite well - 57 goals - more than Sheffield U (56) - and only QPR have scored more (58) outside the top 5. 
So, on goals scored we are 7th in the league. The reason we are where we are is our defence. 
we’ve been better of late - and if we get it sorted for next season there’s no reason why we can’t be up there around the top 6. 

How many points have we got from losing positions, I think you need to take them into account as well. We were behind against Cardiff, Millwall and Barnsley but won, expect there are a couple of draws as well. 

[GrahamC]

2 hours ago, AshtonGreat said:

Seven goals is massively overperforming?

He’s scored 10 goals actually & has 5 assists.

I get that some don’t like him but you can at least be accurate.

[bcfcredandwhite]

30 minutes ago, TheReds said:

How many points have we got from losing positions, I think you need to take them into account as well. We were behind against Cardiff, Millwall and Barnsley but won, expect there are a couple of draws as well. 

Yes I agree with you - and although I didn't talk specifically about it I did kind-of elude to the fact that we would be highly unlikely to have retained all those points when I said 'We will always let SOME leads slip or there would be no score draws' in my OP.
Most seasons it should even itself out more or less within say 9 points either way (guess). However 25 points lost from a winning position isn't 'evened out' - it's the highest number of points lost from a winning position in the whole of the professional league's 4 divisions (according to Sky Sports). I haven't done the research into what the average is but because Sky have seen fit to mention it on a number of occasions I assume it must be significant.

We have also conceded the third-highest tally of goals in the Championship (75 so far). Only Reading  and Peterborough have conceded more goals than we have (85 and 84 respectively). Birmingham are 4th with 72, then Cardiff with 65. Something is wrong there - maybe it's the Midfield rather then the defence as has been suggested, but something is awry for us to be shipping so many goals.

Edited April 25, 2022 by bcfcredandwhite
Correction

[REDOXO]

12 hours ago, bcfc01 said:

Or, more specifically, our defending.

Exactly. I personally think we have made huge strides in recent games. 
 

Like it or not we look better at dead ball defending without Kalas. Cundy Atkinson and Klose look as good as anything out of the top ten and the two lads are developing. 
 

We suffered in midfield without James and Williams as Massengo and Scott were not strong enough. Massengo is excellent at getting his body between the opponent and the ball and getting a foot in and you can say much the same with Scott from a defensive perspective, but they are not quite strong enough yet to deal with the power top sides have in midfield. 
 

However we are seeing developments with a couple of decent signings/or players coming through we could well be competitive particularly defending throughout the team next season. 

[Davefevs]

You beat me to it @REDOXO.

We are seeing a little bit more consistency in team selection through the centre of the pitch, something we’ve not been able to do that often this season.  Nige has often said “competition for places is key”.

Cundy | Klose | Atkinson - a threat at both ends of the pitch, 8 successive starts together

James has been the constant in CM, 9 consecutive starts, even if it’s meant rotating Massengo and Williams.  I’m not sure on an individual performance level he’s hit the heights but maybe it’s the stuff that we can’t see that is giving us better structure.  I did think he had a good game v Derby though.

Perhaps we are finally building partnerships / pairings….to match the WSM.

Coincidence or not, P8 W3 D3 L2 is our best run of the season, the same as our first 8 games of the season.

It is frustrating to lose points from leading positions and I’d rather we didn’t, but I just think it’s the nature of where we are as an evolving squad.

Back in September it was - “if our away form drops that’s it we are down” type stuff.  I said I didn’t really care where our points come from.  As it happened our home and away form switched around.

 

[And Its Smith]

Defence has improved but over the last 10 games we have still conceded the fifth most in the league

I think it’s too simplistic to say if we sort the defence then we will be challenging.  If we sort the defence then it may well mean having more men behind the ball and thus less potency on the break

With our previous good away form, it was said that all we needed to do was improve our home form. We did but our away form was then awful.  

[Mr Popodopolous]

The attack is definitely our strong point, 8th highest scorers in the division I believe.

Defence, don't think it's so bad individually but we allow far too many chances.

Still think a true CM 3 and back 4 would be most secure but I have slight tactical biases.

Just on the attack though, a note of caution. Despite being 8th highest scorers we actually don't create an awful lot odd though it may sound. Think our shots/goals ratio is rather good. However if that regressed to the mean and the defence remained shaky or the protection of it remained variable then we would be in trouble.

That's not to say I haven't enjoyed it in recent months and at home anyway, I think the improvement started from Blackburn at home performance level wise but 8th highest scorers when we have had nothing like that in terms of shots at goal is quite a mismatch.

Otoh with less injuries and more consistency of selection I could see improvements in all areas. A fully/largely fit Tanner, James, Williams- and indeed Semenyo has missed chunks of the season should bring improvement.

DaSilva too since he got back on the bus has been a decent outlet, 1 goal and 4 assists.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

32 minutes ago, billywedlock said:

We have had a poor goal difference for a few years now , and next season , to compete , we have a difference of maybe 30 to find. But we are a threat going forward , so that is a bonus . All will centre on recruitment as various threads have discussed . But a big turnaround is possible , other clubs have done it . Of course not top 2 , miles  off , but the last 2 play off places would be feasible. Wishful thinking as of today , but something to revisit when we know who we have in the squad next year . At least we are starting to see a team again , working hard for each other . That should not be underestimated. Since January , I have very much enjoyed a lot of games , that has been another step forward . 
 

Let’s see where we are in August 

 

Yeh to have a hope of competing for play offs you need to be on +10ish by this stage. Currently there are 6 teams with a GD better than +10...and they are the top 6.

So yeh, either cut down the goals allowed, or increase those scored. Either way, it's as you say, a positive swing of 30ish.

Big ask, and why right now I think that targeting a true midtable finish of 10th to 14th is more realistic for 22/23.

[bcfcredandwhite]

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh to have a hope of competing for play offs you need to be on +10ish by this stage. Currently there are 6 teams with a GD better than +10...and they are the top 6.

So yeh, either cut down the goals allowed, or increase those scored. Either way, it's as you say, a positive swing of 30ish.

Big ask, and why right now I think that targeting a true midtable finish of 10th to 14th is more realistic for 22/23.

... but we made it to the playoff final once with a GD of 0 under GJ!