Dr Balls

The health service is busy making preparations but it’s like watching for a tsunami. We know it’s coming, the tide has gone out, but we really have no idea exactly how big the wave that’s due to come crashing our way will be. All we can hope is that we can cope with it. And the reality is no one quite knows exactly the best way to deal with this pAndemic anyway. China has pretty much limited the infection to Wuhan by closing it down for a few weeks. However at some point the virus will spread back through the rest of China and then a whole new vulnerable population will be at risk. The herd immunity idea is a reasonable theory (it’s the same as vaccinating 90-95% of a population and keeping pretty much everyone safe) as is trying to spread the peak of the outbreak, but still having it occur during our summer months, when the NHS will be more able to cope. However no one knows for certain if this plan will work. The one thing I can tell you is don’t go hoping for a vaccine any time soon. As it stands, we have never managed to develop a vaccine against any Coronavirus.

There is not much on the horizon I’m afraid. We can support patients and their organ systems but there are actually very few antiviral treatments. One potential is a drug that was developed against Ebola and is apparently already in trials in China but that is at least months away at best. The concern I have is that people don’t realise how long this is going to last. We are talking months not days. Keep calm, but do not just carry on. Wash your hands much more than you did, especially before eating, and if you have potential symptoms self isolate, including as much as possible from your own family members. And if you get really sick (and I mean properly sick, not just feeling a bit rubbish) then go to hospital. The vast majority of us will get through it but it’s going to be a difficult time, and to be honest football, as much as it’s a great diversion most of the time, really doesn’t feel that important right now.

Getting up close and personal in sport is more likely to spread the virus than sitting near someone as long as they take the appropriate precautions. Closing schools is an interesting one. Children get infected with Coronavirus but all the evidence so far suggests that they aren’t as affected by symptoms, which is almost unlike every other virus that the medical profession has to deal with it. It’s frankly bizarre and unlike my own experience as a paediatrician. Children spreading it amongst themselves therefore seems less of a risk. The issue is keeping them away from their grandparents and other older people who appear to be very susceptible to the worst symptoms.

Because whilst players likes Hudson-Odoi and coaches like Arteta test positive, and the aim is to slow the spread, just stoping spectators is of little use in itself.

The issue is that this outbreak is going to go on for most of the rest of this year, if not into next year. This current phase is trying to slow down the spread of the virus, so that the health services can cope with the numbers of the sickest cases. Limiting the size of gatherings of people might make a bit of difference but it’s not the only issue. Sitting in your seat at AG is less likely to be a cause of spread compared to cramming into a pub or bar before or after the game, so how long the situation continues with sporting events is unclear. Of course if members of the teams or coaching staff are infectious then that even stops teams playing behind closed doors. That could put a lot of smaller clubs in Leagues 1 and 2 into financial difficulty. Given all of that, I would suggest the positions of the clubs at present should be taken as their finishing positions with just those in the automatic positions going up taking the place of the equivalent number of clubs at the bottom of the league above. However you can never count against the greed of both Sky and football club owners, so common sense may not prevail. If the sensible option was followed, it’s unlikely that any more football would be played before next season, and even the start of that may be delayed. It’s not the end of the world and neither will the virus be the end of it either. People just need to stay calm and sensible, wash their hands frequently and properly, self isolate if they display the symptoms of a viral illness, and stop panic buying everything from toilet rolls to eggs. Only a small percentage of people will die, most will be old (over 70) and this will be very sad for the families affected, but this is not Ebola or SARS which kill 30% of all those infected. This outbreak will have long lasting effects on the world, just as others have done in the past. Some may take years to play out, and are unpredictable at this stage, unlike football, which by this time next year should be looking forward to another set of champions, promotions and relegations and probably Euro 2021.

Agreed. Although we have had recent scares about SARS, Swine flu, MERS & Ebola, the worry is that this virus has the perfect combination of being novel, so no one has immunity or has been vaccinated, highly infectious and with what seems a long incubation period with minimal symptoms, so many people will catch it, and lethal enough to kill a significant percentage, but not so many that people die before spreading it. Out of 7 billion people on the planet, if even only 1 billion are infected, a 1% mortality rate equals 10 million deaths worldwide. The reality is that many more people will catch this virus in the next year, because of the virus characteristics and the fact that the world is so interconnected these days. And although many deaths will be among the older and less well, there have been plenty of reports of younger people dying, especially health workers or anyone who has had potential multiple exposures. The NHS is taking this very seriously indeed, and the risk of hospitals being swamped with cases is not a scare tactic. It is a genuine concern. Realistically the season is unlikely to be cancelled, but there is likely to be an impact on anything where large numbers of people meet, particularly sporting fixtures, which will either be postponed (such as 6 Nations games), played behind closed doors, or even in some cases, like the Chinese Grand Prix, cancelled. On that basis, both Euro 2020 and the Tokyo Olympics are at serious risk of just not taking place, because if the virus still spreads as readily in warmer temperatures, as per the other coronaviruses that infect humans, then the summer could be the start of the peak infective period running into next winter and beyond..

There were moves to get rid of teams before WW2 because there was a feeling from many that they got in the way of the traffic, through the narrow streets and main roads here, in contrast to the avenues that you find in places like Liverpool or Birmingham, while buses are part of the traffic. Plus in Bristol we made our own buses in those days so there was thought to be little economic loss from getting rid of them. The bombing of the Electricity Station was a convenient excuse to get rid of the trams. Of course, being electric they would now be much more environmentally friendly too, although back then it would have all been coal powered generation. Where we really missed out in Bristol was not becoming a metropolitan authority with a transport executive, unlike say Newcastle, which was able to recycle its abandone railway lines from the 60s into a metro system in the 70s and 80s. Bring Bristol, we did nothing much and ended up with cycle tracks instead. Fair play to those who developed them but it just about says it all really of what happens in this city. Not forward-looking and dependent on people getting on with things themselves on the cheap as local politicians bicker amongst themselves and achieve nothing. Now we have a mayor we have just got rid of the bickering but still achieved nothing!!

So that’s £3 million per year. There must be some gate receipts, they keep selling at least one half decent player every year for a few hundred thousand, plus they get something for just being in League 1. Their outgoings can’t be that big as they can’t be paying their players much. £3k per week would be a big earner for them. They bought the ground for next to nothing, and other than a trip to “Go Outdoors” to buy their biggest tent, they’ve spent no money on it, so where is the money going? We all know Wally doesn’t have 2 Dhiram to rub together, but the numbers still don’t seem to add up.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/31/death-of-bury-fc-not-only-thing-rotten-in-game-of-football Another interesting read putting Bury’s demise into a wider context in what is happening to football globally.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2019/aug/28/bury-expulsion-efl-regulations-meaningless https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/29/bury-cva-investigation Both articles are worth a read and back up much that has been written on this thread already. And while the Champions League undertakes its group stage draw and where money of £2bn is going to shared out this season, mostly to the clubs that are already the richest, you can see how a “free market” in football really works. Like many parts of capitalism, those with the most would actually like a monopoly on the commodity, so as to become even richer, whether it be stitching up the competitions to ensure that they always qualify, or enduring that they make the most from the TV rights. Sport thrives on unpredictability, witness last weekend’s test match. And although last season’s Champions League semi-finals, and Ajax’s run to the semi-final were a throw back to more unpredictable times of the European Cup (finalists from Greece, Belgium and Sweden for instance) in the main, it’s the same predictable few clubs who make it to the last few rounds. And after a while if you don’t support one of those teams, it all gets just a bit boring.

Bury have been finished off by 2 sharks. The first one loaded the debts of his failing business onto the football club. The second one, on the basis of no personal investment at all (£1) is looking to make a quick million or two from the club going bust and selling off its assets to the creditors, which alledgely include a close family member, who apparently bought some of the debt at a knockdown price. Neither of these 2 “businessmen” should have been let anywhere near a football club, but only in the EFL could you also have one of the Oystons previously act as an advisor for others club owners on behalf of the EFL itself. As long as club owners have control over the EFL, this situation will not improve, and the risk is that more clubs could go to the wall, thanks to poor decisions and dodgy dealings, plus what appears to be a complete lack of appropriate governance from those supposedly running the leagues.

It’s a wider societal problem in this country. Huge amounts of money sloshing around a few large clubs, some of which is of at least dubious origins, or the club has been mortgaged to the hilt to make the owners a profit (the Glazers), while the values of community and camaraderie that are the lifeblood of most of the clubs in the EFL count for nothing, especially when you see some of the people allowed to own them, a significant proportion of whom have had previous rulings against them in terms of business activities outside football. IF (and it’s an enormous if) the EFL had any gumption, it would run a much tighter rein over clubs, including real “fit and proper” assessments of owners, plus direct supporter involvement at a high level. Any decent investigation into what has happened at Bolton & Bury would likely make similar recommendations, but I won’t hold my breath on it happening. Instead it will be the usual guff and hand-wringing about particular unfortunate circumstances etc, rather than dealing with the real substance of the problem. If it means some EFL clubs going semi-professional to survive, so be it. A Bury-Bolton derby amongst semi-pros in the third tier of English football is infinitely preferable to a competition containing “Man Utd B” v “Man City B”, however much that might suit Guardiola.

This has just appeared on the BBC website. Compare and contrast with the Sky coverage... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-49479847 There may be hope for Bury and Bolton but it might seem a long way off at present.

The EFL are a joke - simple as! However as noted in that David Squires cartoon strip, your football is a wider reflection of your country: Germany - highly organised; supporters owning 51% of a club’s shares; stability guaranteed, tradition and local relevance valued. England - no organisation; any chancer can own a club and drive it to the wall (or over a cliff); “it’s a free market” - winners and losers, “Devil take the hindmost”. As a nation, our stock is rapidly dropping and the demise of Bury and Bolton is just another small symptom of our national affliction!

This is a reflection of the gulf in football caused by the money going from TV into the Premier League. The weekly wage bill of either Man United or Man City, just 10 or so miles away, could probably wipe out all the debts of both Bolton & Bury. Not surprising that debts are so bad in the Championship as clubs overextend in their promotion attempts, or unless clubs relegated from the Premier League are savvy about their contracts, they will be in trouble, parachute payments or not. And that can become a downward spiral of further debt and relegation. If either club are lucky, they might be able to resurrect themselves like another of the original 12 Football League teams, Accrington Stanley. But that seems to require owners who care about the club AND know how to run the finances. They seem to be in short supply...

From my understanding for phase 1 of this scheme, there was no station at Ashton Gate. Obviously that decision was made some time ago, possibly before the upgrade of the stadium and certainly before the arena was proposed. There could be a station if there was a stipulation for Section 106 funding from the arena development to build one or potentially if SL pushed hard enough and offered funding anyway. However knowing Bristol (actually the whole of the UK), don't expect sensible, logical joined up thinking, instead a expect piecemeal, not properly thought through bodge that satisfies no one. In other words, even if there was a station, services wouldn't run at times to make it of any use for most people going to and from the stadium or arena. Cynical? Maybe. Realistic? Absolutely!!

The problem is that in London we are viewed as country bumpkins and not deemed worthy of any investment, plus it is assumed rightly that we won't put up much of a fuss if things don't happen - like pulling the electrification through Bath to Temple Meads. Must explain in part how Liam Fox is still MP for North Somerset.....

Laparoscopically if you know what that means. And yes they do that in our NHS as well, but footballers don't necessarily jump the queue. That's why it will be done privately, probably this weekend. And yes 3 weeks seems reasonable for a recovery period.

In Bristol?

Strangely had a funny feeling that Wilbraham would start after Wednesday's capitulation. Looks like LJ has set us up as 4-5-1, not on the basis of us winning but trying not to lose by too many. We will see...

I don't see how your arthritis is going to help us any! Would love to see us win today but honestly that seems way beyond us at present.

Because no one has worked on their endurance training? Don't ask me, ask the coaches. The midfielders should be able to run about 12 km per match, and be as good at the end as the beginning. Perhaps a bit rich coming from a somewhat unfit spectator but most of these players have at least 20 if not 25 years on me. And they are supposed to be professionals. As is their head coach, who should know their weaknesses, and react accordingly!

They fall back because they are tired. And they stop tracking back for the last 20 minutes. Because they are tired. Agree about Hegeler - needs to be in midfield. And if Brownhill plays he needs substituting at 60 mins or so. Perhaps by GON so experience at the end of the game. Hey but what do I know, I've only been watching football for over 40 years!

Brownhill tiring was a large part of what went wrong at the end against Reading, plus going to 4-4-2 from 4-1-4-1, adding extra work for those left in midfield against fresh substitutes. He needed replacing on both occasions st about 70 minutes but that didn't happen with the consequences of conceding late goals. I am trying hard not to blame Brownhill himself because I think there is a potentially good player if he can progress appropriately and cuts out the silly mistakes like the back heel against Cardiff. I just don't think he can do 90 minutes at this level yet & LJ should also have realised that. Considering how many midfielders we have you would hope that we had a replacement somewhere on the bench who could come on earlier than after the opposition have already scored the winning goal. We have to be able to play to 90 minutes. Until then we are risk of conceding late and losing by a single goal. And all compounded by the lack of confidence engendered by doing it again & again in the last 2-3 months.

We actually pressed really well for 70 mins against Reading then Bryan & Brownhill got knackered so LJ replaced them with..... Wilbraham! LJ also talked about getting a Cisse equivalent. I thought that was Hegeler but no, he gets put in as a centre back in a 3-5-2. There are major defensive issues to sort out. I actually like Goulbourne at left back but I know that view isn't necessarily held by LJ. Selling Ayling is looking like more & more of a significant mistake in hindsight. Not perfect but not as injury prone as Matthews & a way better player than Little at right back. Flint's confidence looks shot but at least Wright looks good although I am not sure yet if he is much better than Derrick Williams. And we need a new goalkeeper. Frankie comes across as a nice bloke, a good shot stopper but he doesn't command his area. I still think RO'D has been undermined this season because he was a very large part of our upturn last season, but he has been punished for mistakes this season, when others have been forgiven & given more chances.