I think number 4 is the most likely, unless I'm remembering it wrong I seem to remember QPR negotiating their punishment when they fell foul of the rules a few years ago.
One thought that has crossed my mind, whilst lots of people have been accusing the the EFL/independent panel of being useless etc is that the delay in any sort of decision might be coming from the other side, as it would be in Wednesday's interest to drag this out as long as possible wouldn't it?