Zookeeper WSM

Yes, doing a couple of nights in Berlin and one in Munich - looking forward to it.

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Thing is our average xG against has actually changed much.

Under Johnson in 2019/20 it was 1.55 across the season, Holden's few games at the end of that season were 1.44, and the whole season 1.54. That was from 4.59 shots on target against per game, and we conceded 1.41 goals per game.

In 2020/21 those seasonal averages were 1.58 xGA, 4.26 shots on target, and 1.48 goals conceded.

This season we have averages of 1.64 xGA, 4.58 shots on target, and goals conceded is 1.77. 

So really, although those numbers are worse this season, they aren't drastically different to the past few years. The shots on target we're allowing tend to have fractionally more chance of being scored, but overall defensively we've stayed pretty static in terms of what we actually allow our opponents to do in front of our goal.

And yet we're conceding 23% more goals than we did last season.

The difference this year is that individuals are making errors, and those errors are being punished. That means it's not the system that has worsened, it's individual performance, or even luck.

Now, that being said, those numbers are all still pretty bad. Ideally we want xGA to be down at about 1.2 or below, shots on target against down at 3ish.  Those are the figures that top 6 teams generally put out.

Attacking output is back up to what it was under Johnson, after a horrific dip under Holden. So that's why we're scoring more, and scoring enough to just outpace what we're conceding.

Average game is a 2-1 loss, up from a 1-0 loss last season and a 1-1 draw in 2019/20.

I’d also say that we’re not seeing the Bentley one man shows that have enabled us to sneak so many games over the past few seasons when we were on the back foot and arguably less last ditch Kalas blocks. Both of these have been factors that have previously kept our goals conceded down whilst our XG against was high.

1 hour ago, Taunton_BCFC said:

So if they don’t arrive by Friday do we ring the club or message Jerry on Twitter??

They told me to ring on Friday.

2 hours ago, aa_bcfc said:

Ordered mine on day one and still haven't received them. Spoke to the club on Monday who said they sent them out the previous Monday and that I should have them. After some discussion the person in the ticket office said to call on Friday if they still haven't turned up and they will ask Swansea to reprint to pick up on Sunday at Swansea.

Yes, I got the same when I called just now. Apparently they’ve had problems with the batches ordered on the first 2 days of sales. As you say, need to call Friday if still not received to arrange pick up on Sunday.

On 05/02/2022 at 23:20, aa_bcfc said:

Same as me. Ordered on 1st day on sale and not showed up yet. 

Still not received ours. Are most people still waiting? If not, I’ll try calling tomorrow.

6 minutes ago, bissellredhead said:

Anyone not received tickets yet? Normally pretty prompt on delivery, can only assume city haven't received tickets to print? Ordered over a week ago

I’ve not received ours yet and bought first day they went on sale.

7 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

Forest maybe the only game we were unlucky because of decisions. The goal shouldn't have been allowed. Thought Forest were the better team though and the way we tried to see the game out was poor. So it was all probably avoidable if better decisions had been made.

I think we were perhaps unlucky to lose to Swansea too. But as a general rule there are so many games that we’ve got more out of than we ‘should’ have over the last 3 seasons. There’s a reason why we are constantly and massively over performing in the actual table v expected goals. I don’t think it’s ‘luck’ as such - to me we seem to pull off desperate, last ditch defending (often Kalas sliding in at the last minute) than others or have inspired performances by Bentley. As I say, this isn’t just this season - it’s the last 3 or so. I can count matches I’ve walked away from thinking we’ve been unlucky in that period on the fingers of one hand I think.

14 hours ago, Kibs said:

I’m not quite sure what some people expect from a mid-table Championship team that has just sold over £25m worth of players but I was happy enough with the performance.

City completely controlled the game away from home and if it wasn’t for a ridiculous 3 minute spell of sucidal defending, I think we’d have won. 

Tempo could have been better first half and we certainly lack the threat and presence of Diedhiou but there were some good performances. Bolton defended well and in numbers making them hard to break down. 2 teams make a game btw, some people don’t seem to get that it’s not just City that dictate the flow of a match. Bolton must have committed about a foul every few minutes today.

Surprised at some of what I’m reading. Maybe my expectations are lower than others this year. 

 

Completely agree. We were good today, controlled the game and at times moved the ball at pace in a similar way to when we were at our peak last season. Brownhill in particular was excellent.