SimonD

On 28/04/2024 at 23:16, Mr Popodopolous said:

Interesting snippet on QPR and FFP in the Football League Paper.

"Somehow, and it must have been by the skin of their teeth, QPR avoided sanctions. Even more incredibly, they might have dodged the same bullet next season too.

Clubs are allowed to lose £39m over a rolling three-year period, meaning that with all permitted deductions and exceptions, QPR's losses would need to decrease by roughly £11m in the current campaign to avoid a breach of PSR.

This seems improbable, yet the EFL demands that clubs submit their projected accounts by March 1 and this deadline is usually followed by rumours- as was the case with Leicester recently- that certain Club a are in trouble. So far, QPR have elicited nary a whisper".

That is somewhat in line with my own thinking numbers wise.

This is pretty much as I said on here when the last season's accounts were released, and in my analysis of the season's before for that matter.

The comment about having dodged the same bullet next season is weird, unless he has got his timeline confused.

45 minutes ago, Hxj said:

That doesn't appear in the decision - the relevant part of the summary of the decision is:

I also understand, though haven't read the whole decision yet, that if there was a 'reset' as in the EFL rules when you have been sanctioned Everton would not have breached and therefore not be penalised.

Are you saying that T-1 and T-2 are not capped as they have already been punished for them in the Premier League version of FFP?

The breach of circa £17m suggests that they are with the 22-23 loss alone being £89m.

 

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

He is on Twitter and he is called slbsn, ie that is the user name.

He is a former Man City Financial Advisor and he regularly appears on White and Jordan.

I do totally agree with you, it's just a prediction by him. However I'd say that wouldnt suit at minimum Brentford, Brighton, Liverpool, Tottemahn. Then maybe West Ham wouldn't like it and Wolves made major cuts to comply.

I think his thinking is that a critical mass may either fail or be hamstrung so tip the limit to this year and make it higher.

PL Rules stipulate minimum 14 clubs must vote for something to change it. I also suspect some or all of Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United would also disagree with it.

Leeds and Southampton who knows, Leicester I expect would welcome it. Arsenal?

I'd be looking to keep the status quo until summer 2025 at the earliest, anything else is a huge risk of moral hazard. Possibly even until summer 2026 ie to run until 2025-26.

I guess if 14 clubs were seriously concerned about breaching next season then it would be a shoo-in. If there aren't I can't see why they would vote for it as it would be allowing others to get away without making the same level of "sacrifice". 

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Seen a suggestion by Stefan Borson that the PL could retrospectively raise the FFP Threshold or clubs vote for it.

That would be even more ridiculous than changing the Rules mid cycle as they might look to do. Plus how would it effect it down here? Rules are sort of but not entirely harmonised.

Who?

Regardless of the answer, I'd put that is the same category as those who say that the thresholds need to be increased in line with inflation. Totally missing the point!

 

16 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I'd say so yeah.

The coefficent is a factor, so too the TV Pool.

All clubs get a starting fee then a fixed fee based on Group Stage wins and draws, however it won't just be Aston Villa fans tbh reckon Newcastle fans probably just took the headline numbers as a given this season.

Small matter too if they do qualify, some may forget that it isn t gross but they gained x from European Conference League this year and y from CL..net improvement of course.

This may have it covered

Prize money & Revenue distribution system. Live! | Football-coefficient.eu

 

5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Aston Villa fans who proclaim that CL qualification alone is a pathway to an easy £50-60m.

It just isn't true albeit perhaps distribution increases next year.

There must be a strong possibility that some Villa fans are not aware of UEFA's convoluted way of allocating payments from their competitions and simply believe that it is performance based. It presumably is in the public domain somewhere.

Not relevant to FFP any more but Reading are apparently selling their training ground to Wycombe Wanderers. I can't be easy supporting Reading these days.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Yep albeit their income will very much be down year on year. Obviously this year especially but last year too somewhat.

They didn't hit the top 30 in the Deloitte Money League..remember 10 places lower and no Europan revenue.

Fofana was £70m, less Book Value and Sell-on. Maddison £40m, less Book Value and Sell-on.

My prediction is fine to 2022-23, huge question mark to 2023-24.

This season they sold Barnes and Castagne I think, but bought a few too

11 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It helps to explain their activity summer. They also needed to fall in line with FFP/P&S. £83m plus Allowables.

Which brings me onto Leicester wh9 the media have barely mentioned. like them their loss limit will be some £83m plus Allowables. Already before Allowables lost £92.4m  pre tax in 2021-22. (Season in which they finished 8th, turned over £214m and reached a Europa Conference League semi final).

Leicester will have the sale of Fofana to Chelsea to help with the accounts due out shortly. 

With regard to qualifying my (well Swiss Ramble's) estimate of disallowable costs, I was looking around for typical costs for the various levels of academies and found this on Swansea.

The full extent of Swansea City's substantial academy saving revealed and the innovation club legend Alan Curtis will spearhead - Wales Online

Does this sound about right to you?

Level 1 £6m-£7m per season

Level 2 £2m per season.

 

 

 

On 22/02/2024 at 21:44, Mr Popodopolous said:

QPR club specific accounts are out.

I assume Holdings is the standard for P&S but @SimonD and anyone else?

The Management Charge?

Yes, definitely the Holdings accounts.

We'd have no problems with FFP on the other set......

 

6 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Don't have time to post a load of screenshots but yes..

*1st March- Actual and Projected.

**31st March- FFI, next 2 years.

I would also add that clubs who miss 1st March deadline, should get an automatic points deduction in addition to anything that FFP may uncover. This is my view only.

Some clubs were late with it in prior years, that should be a strict liability offence, -12 maybe.

Because if you are late with it beyond a few days, that de facto pushes any possible In-Season assessment into the following Season and could be seen as a way to game the system.

*If Losses exceed £15m after adjustments in 3 years.

Thanks for this. 1st March makes more sense as it give the EFL more time to act, although that is not their specialty. 

I did think that I'd read/heard that they were looking to move the date to 31st Dec, but that can't be right. it has to be after the transfer window closes.

To reply to a couple or so comments over the last couple of days (I was quite busy!)

"This bit for example, smacks of the formation of an excuse. It seems weak with respect. Blaming the Covid impact upon the market is a bit rear view mirror"

I disagree, but this is me purely commenting on how I see the terrain, not an official QPR line. There were very few transfers between Championship clubs in the Covid aftermath.

 

"Not that impressive in all honesty."

Nor me! Letting Beale dictate transfer policy was stupid. One sale in that summer (assuming there were any offers for our players) would have have allowed us some breathing space this season.

 

"The original piece last February did have a bullish estimate about the loss falling by £5.5m in one year"

Sadly true. I was just looking for a scenario which matched the stated position (as I'm sure you guessed)

 

 

 

 

 

 

I heard / read that Everton's second breach was just for the season following the three they previously got docked points for. Having been punished, a line was drawn and they were allowed to lose £35m in that season after allowances and lost more, which knocks all of the "punished twice for the same seasons" complaints on the head. I do recall a similar clause in either Birmingham's or Sheffield Wednesday's resolution document.

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Supposedly at the start of January or by mid Janaury QPR couldn't add anyone due to FFP.

Dozzell loaned to Birmingham but Kelman to a lower League side, 

Their activity in and out..how does this stack to solve FFP exactly. We were under much harsher measures last January.

 

Unless you know something I don't, we were not under any measures per se, we just knew where we stood with FFP and were not in a position to make any signing.

 

Dozzell was one of the higher earners (I use the term loosely) at the club, I believe Birmingham in effect just took over the remaining few months on his contract, freeing up some funds.

With regard to Begovic, he opened up a football school in the area and so was happy to come to the club at a cut down rate.

 

We knew our what our position this season was going to be at the start of last season; if we have breached FFP by this January's windows activities we will deserve what ever punishment we get. 

 

Ours (QPR's) were out pretty late last year, very much towards the end of February. 

I'm not reading anything into that.

I'm reading this in a sense of disbelief. You will win, my guess would be 3-0.

Suggestions that we will sit back and defend are well off the mark. We simply aren't capable of doing that, nor can we defend set pieces.

The one hope we've got, outside of the unlikely event of another "worldy" from Chair, is to isolate Sinclair Armstrong against Rob Dickie. Armstrong is powerful and fast, but don't expect him to do anything with the ball once he has got free.

I would say enjoy the match, but you will.

 

51 minutes ago, Hxj said:

The Regulations make no exceptions for clubs promoted from League One, neither are there any guidance notes saying there are differences.

The natural reading of the Regulations, in my view, is that the three year test applies to any club in the championship.  To me that also makes perfect sense from a consistency and practical perspective.  It also means that League One clubs need to keep an eye on the Championship FFP tests, which makes also makes sense.

 

So I didn't imagine it and, yes, it does make perfect sense.

Many thanks.

 

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thank you.

QPR and last year no issue.

Left by mutual consent can mean a loss on Impairment or that an Impairment has to be taken somewhere- Johansen and or Bonne. Otoh it can mean a wage saving depending on the terms of the Settlement.

In theory a player can demand full wages to leave if course, or if the motivation is game time perhaps they waive wages or agree on some mutually beneficial figure.

Dieng joined on a free iirc, pure Profit. Dickie we can extrapolate from our Accounts, the reported fee seems to be the right Ball Park..anyway Fee - Remaining Book Value.

Any loan fee for Dozzell will help too, assume he was a larger earner.

That is very strange given PL clubs look to extract value from their loan deals. Back end heavy sounds..unusual. Sounds Derbyesque except with wages in place of Amortisation.

Championship clubs aren't charity cases but in the case of Hayden I can see why Newcastle may not want much. A young promising midfielder like Hodge though..his wages maybe lower but that seems odd.

Newcastle losing £146m in 2 years pre tax loaning on the cheap, Wolves losing if reports to be believed £110-111m pre tax in 2 years..they have their own 3 Year PSR to think about.

Naiming Rights

Now this is interesting. QPR on the face of it sounds aok, I also recall Sheffield Wednesday and Derby rights not being huge but Birmingham a side in the bottom 3rd and who haven't finished in the top half, 16-21k.

Their value is, seems very toppy? Have a look if you haven't already.

https://www.bcfc.com/news/all/birmingham-city-announces-naming-rights-partnership-with-knighthead

A bit more all encompassing but toppy??

With regard to Dickie, while I thoroughly understand what you are saying and why, considering that the info came from within the club, was a year before he signed for you and they would have been fully aware that he would have been entering his final year of that contract, I would expect that his NBV would already have been taken into account in the £10m required.

I agree that the the Birmingham sponsorship is ridiculous. 

 

Anyway I have a question for you Mr P. I sent to Kieran Maguire and the POF pod so long ago I'm considering sending it a birthday card. We all understand the rolling three-year FFP reporting period, but what is the situation for a club promoted from League One? I thought that I'd read that at the end of their first season in The Championship they are assessed on that season AND the previous two as if they'd been in the Championship all the time - but I cant' find where I read that so may have misunderstood something else. The other option is that they are assessed on one season with a £13m permitted loss, than at the end of the second season on a £26m loss which is how I believe Championship clubs are assessed after being found guilty of breaching and having points docked. Any idea?

 

 

 

9 hours ago, TommyD68 said:

I said a while ago I think the Vyner/Dickie partnership could be one of the strongest we’ve seen since Kalas/Webster and I stand by that. They both compliment each other so well. I was very pleased to see Sky do a piece on Zak before the game saying how crucial he is to the team. I still think some fans overlook how important he is for us. To Zak’s credit I think this is because we’ve almost got used to him now performing at a 7 or 8/10 most weeks. Not many CBs in the championship have the attributes he has imo, I thought he was brilliant today and was probably my MOTM.

As for Dickie, what a signing he has been. No idea why QPR let him go for such a small fee, he might not be the quickest but he’s terrific on the ball and great in the air. I think top 6 this season might be a little too soon, but if we keep these two fit and playing well I really do feel excited about next season. Especially if O’Leary, Tanner, Pring and Mccorie carry on with their great performances too. Great time to be a city fan

If I may, as a QPR supporter (over here for your excellent FFP thread) I can answer that.

 

Dickie was great when we signed him, but he'd been well a truly QPR'd and was playing as if in a state of shock last season. To his credit he never hid, but regularly cost us at least a goal every match. He was entering his last year of contract and none of us expected him to be offered an extension. We had a big FFP hole to fill, and so accepted a reasonable offer for him.

I'm pleased he has recovered from his time with us, he always seems a genuine bloke. 

The £10 million deficit that needed to be addressed to avoid breaching FFP this season is not a figure plucked from thin air. It originated from a meeting at the club with manager Michael Beale at the start of the 2022/23 season. Clive has revealed the source on LFW a couple of times so I'm comfortable doing so here.

Events in that season that will have impacted on that amount include the club being paid compensation for Ilias Chair and Seny Dieng being selected for their respective nations’ World Cup squads, compensation received from Rangers for Beale’s services, compensation paid to Neil Critchley for his subsequent sacking and compensation paid to Wycombe Wanderers in respect of Gareth Ainsworth.

 

Summer Business:

Sold:

Dieng to Middlesborough

Dickie to Bristol City

 

Loans Returned to Parent Club:

Ethan Laird – Manchester United

Tim Iroegbunam – Aston Villa

Jamal Lowe - Bournemouth

Tyler Roberts - Leeds

 

Released at End of Contract:

Luke Amos

Leon Balogun

Chris Martin

Olamide Shodipo

 

Left by Mutual Consent

Stefan Johansen

Macualey Bonne (actually Jan 23)

 

 

January Window loans out

Andre Dozzell

Charlie Kelman

Stephen Duke-McKenna

 

Naming Rights secured this season:

MATRADE Loftus Road Stadium - £400k per season

Achilleus Security Stand

Bhatia Stand

TSG Elite Training & Performance Centre

 

Misc:

Dykes contract extension spreading his last year of amortisation a little thinner.

 

All transfer fees, loans, wages etc are undisclosed and I never believe the numbers in the media. According to Sky Sports we sold Josh Bowler to Everton for over £4million. Most of that would have been add-ons which never got realised. We now have a new policy of not disclosing contract lengths either! 

 

The strikers name you were struggling to remember is Frey.

 

A couple of season back we had Jeff Hendrick on loan from Newcastle for free. No loan fee nor contribution to his wages. If you saw him play, we were done! There is a lot of speculation that we have Hayden and Hodge on very similar deals. Both need game time and will get it if they remain fit.

The wages deals for Andersen and Frey and believed to be back end heavy. I'm not aware of anything that would substantiate that though.

Colback came to us because we were the only ones stupid enough to offer him a two year deal.

 

In my opinion, there are far too many unknowns to be sure that the £10m hole has been filled, but if it hasn't been and they took on additional cost in January, then they deserve what ever punishment they get.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

PPS, the £10m hole I assume to be a net figure.

As in £10m hole before summer activity.

Adding:

Summer

Begovic (Free) (Everton)

Cook (Free) (Nottingham Forest)

Colback (Free) (Nottingham Forest)

Richards (Loan to Perm) (Brighton)

Then Cannon on a free in Autumn

January:

Hayden (Loan) (Newcastle)

Hodge (Loan) (Wolves)

Plus Andersen (Free) and the striker whose name escapes me.

Plus

Ainsworth- Sack, some level of compensation due.

Cifuenfes- In

Austerity?? Maybe the payroll has fallen drastically but tbh I'd be sceptical about that. How do you square that circle @SimonD that £10m is a Net figure.

The Fixed Asset loophole has gone, when you factor in all of the replacements/Additions.

I haven't got time to do that now, but will get back to you later or tomorrow.

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Good morning and welcome. Do periodically read the articles on LFW- finance and sometimes in general. Good site.

What Dave said, 18 months of austerity in the market, perhaps it even begun in January 2021 on a low level, by which I mean cutbacks and restraint plus the Semenyo and Scott sales have helped us and we are now fine it seems.

We appear to have been planning for both systems ie the eventual 70% turnover one and P&S. Was a close run thing for us for a while, possibly we overcorrected a little in some ways.

We didn't spend a fee between January 2022 and late January 2023. We also refrained from signing a PL loanees from January 2021 to summer 2024..Scott Twine the first since Summer 2020.

Think the 3 of 4 Windows is from January 2021 to Summer 2022 no fee was laid out and the same in January 2023 until Semenyo left..drastic steps were taken.

The wage bill is probably on the football side 2/3 of what it was at its peak and the amortisation has also been reduced drastically. Albeit the hole was big.

QPR.

I'm interested in the clawing back of the -£10m hole..the sales don't seem to have been huge yes Dieng and Dickie (thank you, he has been great) and loan or free signings from PL clubs have continued at a steady pace since 2022. £10m in one year as a net figure is a big hole given that the Fixed Asset loophole has gone.

Compensation IN for Beale but presumably to Critchley for the sack, to Wycombe for Ainsworth then to Ainsworth for the sack then possibly but I don't know for sure, Cifuentes and his Swedish club.

I also have a certain interest from a 3 year loss angle in Birmingham, Cardiff, Leicester. The former have what appears to be an inflated Naming Rights Sponsorship, the 2nd have some sort of Sala (RIP) compensation and the latter could sign nobody in Janaury without sales. £83m plus Allowables to this year..hmm.

Thanks for the low down on Bristol City. 

 

The £10 million hole. We should have made sales the summer before last, but they were so determined to get Beale in as manager that they let him dictate who left. 

Last season's managerial change (Beale out, Critchley out and Ainsworth in) was hopefully neutral. We also "earned" around 1/2 million compensation from Chair and Dieng being at the World Cup. Not taking up the option on Charlie Austin's contract made a very decent saving. 

 

This season, Cifuentes was end of contract in Sweden. We'd tried to get him last season, but couldn't afford the buyout. 

The generally accepted amounts are £2m for Dieng and £700k for Dickie. (He had started well for us, but we'd broken him. He definitely needed a fresh start)

We've gone to town with naming rights this season. Stadium, Away Stand, South Africa Road Stand and training ground have all been "claimed". 

The majority of the rest will be through payroll which has left us very weak, but the activity towards the end of the January window do suggest we made it.

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

We’ve had our issues because of covid and shit recruitment (at times) under the previous regime, but we steadied the ship, sold Semenyo last Jan for £9m and Scott this summer for £20m.  We don’t have to worry about FFP for a season or two.  We can now go into windows on the front-foot, not needing to sell to buy.

Re LFW, I’ll be writing the City preview for Clive for this Saturday’s game.

We've all suffered from poor recruitment. Our bigger problem though is the owners getting too excited by the prospect of promotion and over spending in an attempt to achieve it. We are really suffering this season because of it. It will be a minor miracle if we can cut our losses by the required £10m and stay in this division.

 

 

Good morning everyone.

I was led here from Loft for Words, a QPR forum and was pleasantly surprised to see an intelligent and informed thread on FFP covering all Championship clubs.

I write an annual piece for LFW after the accounts are published, this was the last one.

On the edge of the precipice — Column - Queens Park Rangers News | Loft For Words (fansnetwork.co.uk)

 

Bristol City is a club that often gets mentioned on LFW as a club that could be close to breaching FFP, how do you guys see where they sit?