Loderingo Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 The Times Online has a very interesting site called the think Tank. What they do is look at goals and shots data of football matches going back the last few years or so. They give most importance to recent results and produce an attack, defence and overall rating for each team. They can then produce probabilities for all forthcoming fixtures. http://www.dectech.org/football_sites/football/ Why this is particularly interesting is that I looked at this at the end of last season and we were 4th in the table but it had us down as the 17th best team in their model. And I thought then what a load of rubbish. Looking again now it has us as the 18th best team in the league and we are currently 18th. I guess this shows then how well we did last season and how much we overperformed really due to hard work, luck and momentum. The current overall ratings are as follows: Reading 100 Brum 100 Sheff U 82 Palace 78 Charlton 77 Plymouth 76 Preston 74 Wolves 73 Soton 68 Watford 68 Ipswich 67 Cardiff 66 QPR 63 Norwich 62 Derby 62 Coventry 60 Blackpool 59 Us 58 Burnley 58 Forest 53 Sheff W 52 Swansea 49 Donny 47 Barnsley 47 So by that Burnley are massively overperforming and Charlton massively underperforming in particularly Looking at our attack and defence ratings we have the 8th best attack rating but the 4th worst defence rating. This makes sense as teams (particularly at AG this season) don't need many shots to score against us and reflects on the number of soft goals we conceed. This suggests that rather than getting another striker our priority for the window should be on bolstering the defence. The other thing I'd take out of this is that teams go through short term patches of wildly overperforming or underperforming but in the end tend to revert back to the mean i.e. Hull have massively overperformed in the Prem this year but we should expect them to be relegated next year as they suffer their own second season syndrome. This means as well that it's much harder to produce real long-term improvement as teams cannot keep overperforming forever. Sadly for City this means it'll probably take some years of gradual improvement before we can have another serious shot at the Prem again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavidNoble Posted December 21, 2008 Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 It says Barnsley are the worst in the league yet predicts them to finish clear of relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loderingo Posted December 21, 2008 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2008 It says Barnsley are the worst in the league yet predicts them to finish clear of relegation. That's because Barnsley are currently 7 points clear of the drop. They are not that much worse than the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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