Getting From Mid-table To Promotion

[Tom Fleuriot]

If we look at the table this season compared to last:

Wolves 1st this year finished 7th last year - 9 players out, 5 players in (+8 loans): end of season form was 19 pts from 30)

Birmingham 2nd (ex-Prem) - 5 out, 3 in (+9 loans):

Sheff Utd 3rd last year 9th - 8 out, 6 in (+9 loans): 20 from 30

Reading 4th (ex-Prem) - 9 out, 3 in (+ 3 loans):

Cardiff 5th last year 12th - 5 out, 5 in (+9 loans): 16 from 30

Burnley 6th last year 13th - 3 out, 2 in (+3 loans): 11 out of 30

Preston 7th last year 15th - 6 out, 5 in (+7 loans): 16 out of 30

(City - 3 in, 6 out, + 2 loans)

What I think this tells us:

1. It is possible to get from mid-table to competing at the top with around 5 replacement players (as GJ is aiming for).

2. A lot of the teams supplement their squads with loan players throughout the season. I've never thought we should do this but it looks like this does actually help (assuming the loanee isn't Andy Webster. Two of those teams got NIgel Quashie in, but that wouldn't excite me either).

3. None of the three losing play-off teams last year were in the promotion shake-up this year.

4. End of season form seems to indicate success for the following season (in non-relegated teams). An average of 15 points does quite nicely.

5. None of these teams changed their manager in the close season, which probably helps.

What this doesn't tell us:

1. Why have Watford and Crystal Palace fallen away so spectacularly?

2. Why do Burnley not fit any of these guides? They have made very few signings, had below-par end of season form, yet are still in with a shout of promotion (and had good cup runs). My theory - Chris Eagles. Possibly the best player I saw at the Gate this season.

3. I haven't captured signings made the previous season who took a while to "bed in", and pulled data from soccerbase so it may not capture end of season signings (i.e. May / June 08)

4. Have all other clubs in this division got similar stats for transfer changes that I just can't be bothered to research? I may do this later if I get bored, but if they have then it would indicate that end of season for is more important.

5. Anything else that all these teams have in common? Would appreciate some thoughts.

But I still think it's interesting that all these teams have similarities. My conclusion? Considering our end of season form, unless we sign a couple of players of exceptionally high calibre, it will be a season of consolidation next year. As we are unlikely to find the next Kightly or Chris Eagles due to the nature of player transfers, I'm setting my hopes for a simple top-half finish as a minimum requirement.