Irish_Red Posted March 7, 2010 Report Share Posted March 7, 2010 I decided to have a quick look at the Championship over the last 5 seasons at roughly the same point to see how many points the 3rd bottom team had and whether the same bottom three got relegated. Here are the result ComparisonAfter 34 games 2009 34points Bottom 3 down 2008 36points Leicester on 40 points at 17th position 2007 35points Luton 20th position 2006 29points Bottom 3 down 2005 34points Bottom 3 down Therefore over the last 3 seaons the points total at this time are roughly equal to this season. 3rd Bottom 4th Bottom 2009 46 51 2008 52 53 2007 42 49 2006 42 50 2005 50 50 I therefore think that 52/53 points should be enough to keep us up. So the reasons to be joyful, invariably the bottom 3 teams go down or those very close to them (though Leicester were on 17th and thier form kept on spiralling downwards towards relegation) and 10/11 points from 12 games is not impossible. Of the next twelve games 7 of them are against teams potentially battling for relegation and I include Derby in the bracket. So our fate is very much in our own hands... The reasons to be fearful. We have 7 of the next 12 games against teams battling relegation and I would not trust our fate in our own hands at the moment. We are 21st in the form league, of our last 5 home games we are 23rd (Doncaster are bottom!). If you look at the next (and last 12 games) it is definitely squeaky bum time. I include my prediction and the oppositions current form (the rest should be fairly self explanatory). Fixture Home / Away Current Pos Pred Points Cum Points Form Crystal Palace A 19th L 0 42 WdLLLwWl Reading A 18th D 1 43 WlwWwWll Plymouth A 23rd W 3 46 DlDDwlLl Newcastle H 1st L 0 46 WwWWdlWd Barnsley H 11th L 0 46 lWwlLlWw Peterborough A 24th D 1 47 LlWllWlL Notts Forest H 2nd L 0 47 WlWWllWl Sheffield Wed A 22nd D 1 48 WlLLWlWl Swansea City H 4th L 0 48 lWwdDwWD S****horpe A 20th D 1 49 lDDWllLw Derby County H 14th W 3 52 WlLWWdWl Blackpool A 7th L 0 52 WlWWdlLL Target52 The predictions are not predicated on a Johnson in/out basis just merely where do I see the points coming from. I think it is going to be mighty close, anyone who says it isn't is frankly living in cloud cuckoo land (reading some of the "we are not going down comments are niave). I am an optimist (believe me if you have supported the city since about 8 any other disposition would send you crazy) but I can honestly see this going to the wire. I personally think that GJ should have been sacked in February (at the start) but I do not know whether changing manager now would give us the lift that we desparately need... Could a new manager put together a battle plan for the final 12 games against some tricky opposition. Who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Red Hat Posted March 8, 2010 Report Share Posted March 8, 2010 I decided to have a quick look at the Championship over the last 5 seasons at roughly the same point to see how many points the 3rd bottom team had and whether the same bottom three got relegated. Here are the result ComparisonAfter 34 games 2009 34points Bottom 3 down 2008 36points Leicester on 40 points at 17th position 2007 35points Luton 20th position 2006 29points Bottom 3 down 2005 34points Bottom 3 down Therefore over the last 3 seaons the points total at this time are roughly equal to this season. 3rd Bottom 4th Bottom 2009 46 51 2008 52 53 2007 42 49 2006 42 50 2005 50 50 I therefore think that 52/53 points should be enough to keep us up. So the reasons to be joyful, invariably the bottom 3 teams go down or those very close to them (though Leicester were on 17th and thier form kept on spiralling downwards towards relegation) and 10/11 points from 12 games is not impossible. Of the next twelve games 7 of them are against teams potentially battling for relegation and I include Derby in the bracket. So our fate is very much in our own hands... The reasons to be fearful. We have 7 of the next 12 games against teams battling relegation and I would not trust our fate in our own hands at the moment. We are 21st in the form league, of our last 5 home games we are 23rd (Doncaster are bottom!). If you look at the next (and last 12 games) it is definitely squeaky bum time. I include my prediction and the oppositions current form (the rest should be fairly self explanatory). Fixture Home / Away Current Pos Pred Points Cum Points Form Crystal Palace A 19th L 0 42 WdLLLwWl Reading A 18th D 1 43 WlwWwWll Plymouth A 23rd W 3 46 DlDDwlLl Newcastle H 1st L 0 46 WwWWdlWd Barnsley H 11th L 0 46 lWwlLlWw Peterborough A 24th D 1 47 LlWllWlL Notts Forest H 2nd L 0 47 WlWWllWl Sheffield Wed A 22nd D 1 48 WlLLWlWl Swansea City H 4th L 0 48 lWwdDwWD S****horpe A 20th D 1 49 lDDWllLw Derby County H 14th W 3 52 WlLWWdWl Blackpool A 7th L 0 52 WlWWdlLL Target 52 The predictions are not predicated on a Johnson in/out basis just merely where do I see the points coming from. I think it is going to be mighty close, anyone who says it isn't is frankly living in cloud cuckoo land (reading some of the "we are not going down comments are niave). I am an optimist (believe me if you have supported the city since about 8 any other disposition would send you crazy) but I can honestly see this going to the wire. I personally think that GJ should have been sacked in February (at the start) but I do not know whether changing manager now would give us the lift that we desparately need... Could a new manager put together a battle plan for the final 12 games against some tricky opposition. Who knows... I personally think he should have been removed before the January transfer window opened. As for a new manager avoiding relegation, it depends who is appointed, a man proven and respected at this level and above would do the trick I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Ferret Posted March 8, 2010 Report Share Posted March 8, 2010 sterling work with the stats mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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