We Are Now Mathematically Safe From The Drop

[Loderingo]

Someone asked on another thread whether we were now mathematically safe. We are.

Peterborough are relegated

Plymouth are 15 points behind so can't overhaul us.

Wednesday are 11 points behind us so they would need to win all 4 of their remaining games. Palace are 10 points behind so they would need 3 wins and a draw. They play each other on the last day so they both can't overtake us.

We still have a very very slim chance of the playoffs. If we won all our games we would have 68 points

We can't catch Cardiff unless they go into admin due to 27 inferior goal difference

Swansea would need 3 points from 3 games (assuming we beat them) to overhaul us or 4 points if we beat them heavily enough to overturn the goal difference deficit. They have Donny and Barnsley H to come

Leicester would need 4 points from 4 games as unlikely to overturn 17 goal deficit

Blackpool would need 5 points from 3 games assuming we beat them) as unlikely to turnover 24 goal deficit. 1 of their games is Newcastle away. Also play Forest H and Peterborough A

Boro would need 10 points from 4 games

Very very unlikely to happen (but look at Cardiff/Preston last year). Our only slim chance would be to beat Swansea heavily and hope they then bottle it completely. We would then need to win our next 2 while hoping Blackpool struggle (and maybe GJ does us a favour) before going to them in a winner takes all clash.

As I said very unlikely and if we draw against Swansea (which is quite possibly) then Championship status will be nailed on.

[Dan Robin]

Yes,we're safe ....and remembering the bad feelings we had some weeks ago,I'm satisfied and happy

Now we can play without pressure,trying to make a good finish... with Leicester's win ,we have few chances for the PO ,but never say never ...we'll try,without expectations

[Mr Popodopolous]

Looking at the table and the run-ins- playoffs still very much highly unlikely for me, but a top 10 finish is eminently possible.

[Slave to the rhythm]

Someone asked on another thread whether we were now mathematically safe. We are.

Peterborough are relegated

Plymouth are 15 points behind so can't overhaul us.

Wednesday are 11 points behind us so they would need to win all 4 of their remaining games. Palace are 10 points behind so they would need 3 wins and a draw. They play each other on the last day so they both can't overtake us.

We still have a very very slim chance of the playoffs. If we won all our games we would have 68 points

We can't catch Cardiff unless they go into admin due to 27 inferior goal difference

Swansea would need 3 points from 3 games (assuming we beat them) to overhaul us or 4 points if we beat them heavily enough to overturn the goal difference deficit. They have Donny and Barnsley H to come

Leicester would need 4 points from 4 games as unlikely to overturn 17 goal deficit

Blackpool would need 5 points from 3 games assuming we beat them) as unlikely to turnover 24 goal deficit. 1 of their games is Newcastle away. Also play Forest H and Peterborough A

Boro would need 10 points from 4 games

Very very unlikely to happen (but look at Cardiff/Preston last year). Our only slim chance would be to beat Swansea heavily and hope they then bottle it completely. We would then need to win our next 2 while hoping Blackpool struggle (and maybe GJ does us a favour) before going to them in a winner takes all clash.

As I said very unlikely and if we draw against Swansea (which is quite possibly) then Championship status will be nailed on.

Considering that many of us were resigned to relegation only a couple of weeks ago, the last five games have been absolutely remarkable. We have a lot to thank Keith Millen for.

[BCAGFC]

We have a lot to thank Keith Millen for.

And Steve Lansdown who had to make the hard (for him anyway) but absolutely correct decision to sack GJ.

Think the players deserve a bit of credit as well, it is obvious that bad influences both on the player front and the management front can affect performances.

BCAGFC

[Pezo]

Considering that many of us were resigned to relegation only a couple of weeks ago, the last five games have been absolutely remarkable. We have a lot to thank Keith Millen for.

I know some of us were thinking we might get relegated but surely those people that were so worried about getting relegated now realise how silly that opinion was now that were safe with 4 games left to go.

[Alex_BCFC]

I know some of us were thinking we might get relegated but surely those people that were so worried about getting relegated now realise how silly that opinion was now that were safe with 4 games left to go.

It wasn't silly after the Plymouth game.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I was never massively worried about relegation at any stage. Panicked a bit post Plymouth though. Credit to Millen, Lansdown and the players for turning things round as they have.

[BCAGFC]

I know some of us were thinking we might get relegated but surely those people that were so worried about getting relegated now realise how silly that opinion was now that were safe with 4 games left to go.

It is blatantly obvious that the players weren't playing for GJ for whatever reason and the change in management has been the best thing for everyone concerned.

Just makes you wonder what might have been, if we had changed management after the Baaaardiff debacle.

BCAGFC

[Pezo]

It wasn't silly after the Plymouth game.

After the Plymouth game I had a chat with a mate and he thought we were going down I said "don't be silly" so from my point of view yes it was silly after the Plymouth. Each to there own but I have never felt that we were going to go down this season, maybe im the silly one.

[Alex_BCFC]

After the Plymouth game I had a chat with a mate and he thought we were going down I said "don't be silly" so from my point of view yes it was silly after the Plymouth. Each to there own but I have never felt that we were going to go down this season, maybe im the silly one.

I don't think you're silly. Just think that a lot of people after the Plymouth game were worried and that was fair enough. Luckily a change of manager turned it around but if we had kept GJ we could easily only be on something like 48 or 49 points now IMO.

[Portland Bill]

I know some of us were thinking we might get relegated but surely those people that were so worried about getting relegated now realise how silly

that opinion was now that were safe with 4 games left to go.

If Johnson was still the manager i dont think you would be saying what you have. We were in freefall. If he had gone 5 games earlier we may have even had a realistic play off chance. It was the people who could not see Johnson had to go that were the silly ones.

[Slave to the rhythm]

I don't think you're silly. Just think that a lot of people after the Plymouth game were worried and that was fair enough. Luckily a change of manager turned it around but if we had kept GJ we could easily only be on something like 48 or 49 points now IMO.

I agree.

It's perfectly possible that without the managerial change we may have scraped draws against Barnsley, Peterborough and Wednesday, while losing to Newcastle and Forest. Three points instead of the eleven we actually obtained.

Iwelumo had made it clear that he wasn't staying and we seemed utterly clueless without him. Maierhoffer seemed to be regarded as being our last hope.

It's amazing the difference two weeks have made.

[Pezo]

It is blatantly obvious that the players weren't playing for GJ for whatever reason and the change in management has been the best thing for everyone concerned.

Just makes you wonder what might have been, if we had changed management after the Baaaardiff debacle.

BCAGFC

The debate isnt really about if the players were playing for GJ or not, I have never thought we were going to go down and what I was trying to point out was that these people that couldn't see anything other than relegation must now see that there reaction was a knee jerk reaction and just panicking a bit early.

On your point, GJ going was the best option for all it seems now but I find it quite amazing the amount of people that have this opinion that the "players weren't playing for GJ". To me the players shouldn't be playing for any manager they should be playing for me and us the fans and if they were not playing as well as they could then they need to go because to me if they are not playing for the the fans (i.e. the club) then why are we paying them? We have watched some shockingly bad football this season and if that was because the players didn't want to play for us even if it was because they didn't like their manager then as far as im concerned they can go (to put it politely).

[Portland Bill]

Relegation was a serious concern before Johnson went, anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themself. SL obviously thought so as well or Gj would still be here.

[Pezo]

If Johnson was still the manager i dont think you would be saying what you have. We were in freefall. If he had gone 5 games earlier we may have even had a realistic play off chance. It was the people who could not see Johnson had to go that were the silly ones.

But what's to say if we got rid 5 games earlier we would have had the same results and SL would have had to rush to make an his appointment and we would have ended up with Ian Dowey. Its all if buts and maybes but after the Cardiff game I couldn't care less if GJ stayed or left as long as it was done at the end of the season as I have always thought that managerial changes mid season are the signs of a weak chairman and my opinion of SL has been dented slightly by his decision to get rid of GJ mid season.

[Pezo]

I don't think you're silly. Just think that a lot of people after the Plymouth game were worried and that was fair enough. Luckily a change of manager turned it around but if we had kept GJ we could easily only be on something like 48 or 49 points now IMO.

So if we had 48 points now (I think we would be doing better but I pick your lowest number) and the fact that 52 points usually keeps a team up you don't think we would get 4 points from our last 4 games?

[Alex_BCFC]

So if we had 48 points now (I think we would be doing better but I pick your lowest number) and the fact that 52 points usually keeps a team up you don't think we would get 4 points from our last 4 games?

Well if we had only picked up 3 points from the past 5 games as I reckon we could have under GJ then if we replicated that again in the last 4 games it could easily mean relegation.

I'm not saying we would have gone down but it was a concern and to say otherwise after the Plymouth game would be foolish for me.

[Pezo]

Well if we had only picked up 3 points from the past 5 games as I reckon we could have under GJ then if we replicated that again in the last 4 games it could easily mean relegation.

I'm not saying we would have gone down but it was a concern and to say otherwise after the Plymouth game would be foolish for me.

fair enough - but we would have had to have gone on a run far worse than what we had seen all season up to that point.

[Alex_BCFC]

fair enough - but we would have had to have gone on a run far worse than what we had seen all season up to that point.

And it was a serious possibility. Plymouth were so bad that night and we managed to lose to them. You only have to look at the runs we had been on since the Leicester win to see it was possible to get deeper into trouble.

[RedM]

Someone asked on another thread whether we were now mathematically safe. We are.

Peterborough are relegated

Plymouth are 15 points behind so can't overhaul us.

Wednesday are 11 points behind us so they would need to win all 4 of their remaining games. Palace are 10 points behind so they would need 3 wins and a draw. They play each other on the last day so they both can't overtake us.

We still have a very very slim chance of the playoffs. If we won all our games we would have 68 points

We can't catch Cardiff unless they go into admin due to 27 inferior goal difference

Swansea would need 3 points from 3 games (assuming we beat them) to overhaul us or 4 points if we beat them heavily enough to overturn the goal difference deficit. They have Donny and Barnsley H to come

Leicester would need 4 points from 4 games as unlikely to overturn 17 goal deficit

Blackpool would need 5 points from 3 games assuming we beat them) as unlikely to turnover 24 goal deficit. 1 of their games is Newcastle away. Also play Forest H and Peterborough A

Boro would need 10 points from 4 games

Very very unlikely to happen (but look at Cardiff/Preston last year). Our only slim chance would be to beat Swansea heavily and hope they then bottle it completely. We would then need to win our next 2 while hoping Blackpool struggle (and maybe GJ does us a favour) before going to them in a winner takes all clash.

As I said very unlikely and if we draw against Swansea (which is quite possibly) then Championship status will be nailed on.

Are you Colin Sexstone? I've seen him in action and he can come up with all these facts and figures off the top of his head, very impressive!

Personally, I can't see the playoff's for us, they are out of reach. But equally I'm just glad that relegation is definately out of reach too.

I am going to enjoy the rest of the season, draw a line and take a break. then it's onto next season with a new manager and players and see what that will bring. Last August I didn't forsee all the highs and lows of this one, so who knows.

[Bigdave60]

The debate isnt really about if the players were playing for GJ or not, I have never thought we were going to go down and what I was trying to point out was that these people that couldn't see anything other than relegation must now see that there reaction was a knee jerk reaction and just panicking a bit early.

On your point, GJ going was the best option for all it seems now but I find it quite amazing the amount of people that have this opinion that the "players weren't playing for GJ". To me the players shouldn't be playing for any manager they should be playing for me and us the fans and if they were not playing as well as they could then they need to go because to me if they are not playing for the the fans (i.e. the club) then why are we paying them? We have watched some shockingly bad football this season and if that was because the players didn't want to play for us even if it was because they didn't like their manager then as far as im concerned they can go (to put it politely).

I felt we should have ditched GJ after the Cardiff game, it is quite obvious he had lost the dressing room around that time.

He hadn,t a clue of his best team/formation for most if not all of this season.

Weather or not the players should play for the fans/club is not hear or their, it is human nature and eventualy will happen at most clubs.

[Pezo]

I felt we should have ditched GJ after the Cardiff game, it is quite obvious he had lost the dressing room around that time.

He hadn,t a clue of his best team/formation for most if not all of this season.

Weather or not the players should play for the fans/club is not hear or their, it is human nature and eventualy will happen at most clubs.

What? so all the players that "weren't playing for GJ" and not giving 100% that's OK to you is it? All of those games that GJ took abuse for in some cases because these players weren't playing as good as they could that was GJ's fault was it?

Bottom line if these players that were "not playing for GJ" in turn not playing for the club and not playing for us that pay there wages then what happens if Coppell comes in and does or says something they don't like? At what point does a player not giving 100% become the fault of the manager and not the player?

[BCAGFC]

What? so all the players that "weren't playing for GJ" and not giving 100% that's OK to you is it? All of those games that GJ took abuse for in some cases because these players weren't playing as good as they could that was GJ's fault was it?

Bottom line if these players that were "not playing for GJ" in turn not playing for the club and not playing for us that pay there wages then what happens if Coppell comes in and does or says something they don't like? At what point does a player not giving 100% become the fault of the manager and not the player?

Don't think it was matter of not giving 100%, I think it was that the players had lost COMPLETE faith in their manager and when that happens, results suffer big time.

As has been said before, GJ didn't know his best formation and was playing too many players in their wrong positions and was chopping and changing the side every game....worrying about the opposition instead of letting the opposition worry about us.

BCAGFC

[Nibor]

SteveL had it right when he called playoff talk cloud cuckoo land, it was then and still is

Just be grateful the action was taken to turn it around because before that make no mistake, we were heading for relegation. Nobody had any confidence and wanted to be out there.

When there are individuals not performing you can look to the players. When the entire squad is on a downer and not doing it you look to the manager.

It's not about whether you want to perform or not, it's about having faith and the motivation that that brings about. Confidence and belief change how you react subconsciously, not consciously.

With the greatest of respect for GJ and the great job he did here overall, it is no coincidence that making a change brought about our turnaround in form.

He'd become too entrenched, the players clearly weren't buying it any more and he wasn't going to get out of the mire with the thinking that got him into it, the panic signs were there for all to see.

KM has done a great job these last five games and instead of clinging to pipe dreams we should be enjoying seeing the players play with confidence and the young uns getting their chances.

[Economou]

SteveL had it right when he called playoff talk cloud cuckoo land, it was then and still is

Just be grateful the action was taken to turn it around because before that make no mistake, we were heading for relegation. Nobody had any confidence and wanted to be out there.

When there are individuals not performing you can look to the players. When the entire squad is on a downer and not doing it you look to the manager.

It's not about whether you want to perform or not, it's about having faith and the motivation that that brings about. Confidence and believe change how you react subconsciously, not consciously.

With the greatest of respect for GJ and the great job he did here overall, it is no coincidence that making a change brought about our turnaround in form.

He'd become too entrenched, the players clearly weren't buying it any more and he wasn't going to get out of the mire with the thinking that got him into it, the panic signs were there for all to see.

KM has done a great job these last five games and instead of clinging to pipe dreams we should be enjoying seeing the players play with confidence and the young uns getting their chances.

Not sure I quite agree with your synopsis. I'd have thought coming back from 2-0 down at Plymouth showed the players still had some spirit/confidence.

The fact is no one knows whether we were going down with GJ in charge, he could easily have turned it round. The crucial thing is Maynard started scoring again and that kicked off v Plymouth

[bucksred]

So if we had 48 points now (I think we would be doing better but I pick your lowest number) and the fact that 52 points usually keeps a team up you don't think we would get 4 points from our last 4 games?

Reckon its more likely to need 53 or more to stay up. 50,51 or 52 points will still be likely to get relegated. With GJ in charge I couldnt see us making that, let alone 53 or more.

I'm just glad Milly has saved our asses with the turn round in form, performances and getting the Gate rocking again.

[Nibor]

Not sure I quite agree with your synopsis. I'd have thought coming back from 2-0 down at Plymouth showed the players still had some spirit/confidence.

The fact is no one knows whether we were going down with GJ in charge, he could easily have turned it round. The crucial thing is Maynard started scoring again and that kicked off v Plymouth

Fair enough. Myself I don't think GJ showed any signs whatsoever of turning it around and showed plenty of signs of panicking (loaning more strikers, blaming the players, blaming the fans, changing the side every 30 minutes).