Milo Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Has anyone discovered any real good value bets for the World Cup? The best I can come up with at the moment is Uruguay to be the Highest Scoring Team at 125/1 with Boylesports. It's a massive long shot but Diego Forlan seemed inspired on the big occasions for Atletico Madrid in their Europa Cup run and strike partner Luis Suarez is highly rated too. Add this to them being in a fairly weak group they may get a few goals. Only worth a couple of quid. Other than that I'm struggling for ideas and would love to know what everyone else is backing, at what odds, with which bookie and why. Links for the main betting World Cup pages are Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Boylesports, Bet 365, Skybet, Betfred, Corals and Betfair. Finally, for those who like the occasional flutter you might like the Supporters Trust World Cup Prediction Game where points are awarded based on the betting odds. It might scratch a betting itch while helping with raising money for the Atyeo statue. Click here or in the link in my signature for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Batman Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 friend of mine got 30/1 for Van Persie to be top scorer. edit - he did this ages ago, just checked on paddy power and he's down to 11/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidersam Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Alberto Gilardino, Italy striker as top scorer 50/1 on the basis hes their best striker and they have New Zeland in their group. Worth an e/w bet as will be first 4 places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Economou Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Bet 365 have 14/1 USA to beat England 1-0, seems good value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CITYRED Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Has anyone discovered any real good value bets for the World Cup? The best I can come up with at the moment is Uruguay to be the Highest Scoring Team at 125/1 with Boylesports. It's a massive long shot but Diego Forlan seemed inspired on the big occasions for Atletico Madrid in their Europa Cup run and strike partner Luis Suarez is highly rated too. Add this to them being in a fairly weak group they may get a few goals. Only worth a couple of quid. Other than that I'm struggling for ideas and would love to know what everyone else is backing, at what odds, with which bookie and why. Links for the main betting World Cup pages are Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Boylesports, Bet 365, Skybet, Betfred, Corals and Betfair. Finally, for those who like the occasional flutter you might like the Supporters Trust World Cup Prediction Game where points are awarded based on the betting odds. It might scratch a betting itch while helping with raising money for the Atyeo statue. Click here or in the link in my signature for details. Fairly easy group?? are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted June 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Fairly easy group?? are you serious? Good point, I'll re-phrase. It's a group where there's no outstanding team with France being old, out-of-form and the least fancied of the 8 seeded teams. Mexico qualified well but didn't look great against England and you have to fancy South Africa to take a few points as the home team. I think that's a lot of even games where Uruguay with two top strikers could force themselves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted June 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Bet 365 have 14/1 USA to beat England 1-0, seems good value. Just the thought of it leaves me cold. I don't think I'd want to be cheered up by winning that bet but I agree it's a more likely outcome than the price suggests. Odds in favour of England are always weighted by demand from us patriotic punters and the reverse of that is that you can often get a really good price if you back against England, particularly if you're betting on betfair. I had a small flutter on Japan beating England at 16/1 the other day not because I had much expectation but an experimental England side could get beaten by an organised Japanese one. For most of the game the odds were much shorter than 16/1 after they took the lead! Similarly backing on a free-kick taking opponent to score the first goal in a match v England is often good value - Landon Donovan takes penalties and free-kicks for USA and is 12/1 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes to score the opening goal against England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted June 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted June 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 friend of mine got 30/1 for Van Persie to be top scorer. edit - he did this ages ago, just checked on paddy power and he's down to 11/1 Perhaps he got the price when RVP was injured. It's an outstanding price, particularly with Robben appearing to be fit to supply the ball for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbcfc Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 Robin Van Persie top goalscorer & Brazil to win the world cup 100/1 (now 66/1) Germany e/w 16/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted June 10, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 Robin Van Persie top goalscorer & Brazil to win the world cup 100/1 (now 66/1) Germany e/w 16/1 RVP + Brazil is 80/1 with Skybet and Boylesports. Seems plausible. As for Germany, I watched the ITV4 programme tonight with statistical analysis of what is needed to win the World Cup. Germany shoot more than any other team in World Cups and they score more goals per game than any other historically. They are the most successful penalty shoot out team and you have to be optimistic about them making good progress and scoring goals. According to last months' Four Four Two they have a surprisingly creative and youthful team this year. But who's going to get the goals? If Klose gets a run in the team you have to fancy his pedigree of 5 goals in each of the last two World Cups (Silver Boot in 2002 and Golden Boot in 2006) and he has his sights set on Ronaldo's record of 15 World Cup goals. The latest comments from Joachim Loew suggest that he'll get a chance. You can get 33/1 with many bookies for Klose to top score. <Memory Flashback> In 1990 Andrea Carnevale was Italy's leading striker in qualifying. In the first game he was subbed by debutant Toto Schillaci who scored two minutes later. Carnevale started the next game and was subbed again by Schillaci. In the third game, Schillaci started and went on to win the golden boot with 6 goals as Italy finished third. </Memory Flashback> Mark Twain said that history doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme. Klose and Podolski have both struggled for form this season. Meanwhile Brazilian born Cacau qualified for the German team last year and made his debut in May 2009. In the warm up games he scored 2 in a 3-0 win over Malta on 13th May 2010 and came off the bench for the second half against Bosnia Herzegovina last week, replacing Klose who had again failed to score, and duly scored again in a 3-1 win and by all accounts made a big impact. There is pressure in the German media for Cacau to start and while it doesn't look like he will, I think he has a good chance of staking a claim off the bench. While bwin have Cacau's top scorer odds as short as 40/1, he's currently 125/1 with Totesport (where there's an each-way option) and I've just bagged a remarkable 217/1 with Betfair (where there's no each-way option - odds quoted include betfair's 5% commission). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21. Marcham Posted June 11, 2010 Report Share Posted June 11, 2010 Tevez top scorer at 40/1 with Betfred. Also put a few on including the Argies to reach the semi's, France to fail to make it out of their group, and Portugal to reach the final. Cant remember all the odds but seemed pretty good at the time. (Not Accumulator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Red Posted June 11, 2010 Report Share Posted June 11, 2010 Germany at 16/1 e/w Uruguay to beat France tomorrow night at 3/1 Argentina, England, Holland, Italy & Spain to win their groups - 11/2 I was very tempted by Nani to be Portugal's top scorer at 7/1. Fortunately I didn't put it on and he got injured the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olé Posted June 11, 2010 Report Share Posted June 11, 2010 I work very closely with the betting industry and was speaking to a guy from Stan James and he said they'd had a lot of each way bets on Cameroon at 125-1 because 'if you look at it they can get out of their group and have an easier run than others to the semi's'. I'm not sure about that, and having watched live as Samuel Eto'o threw his tantrum in a warm up against Portugal (amid speculation he wanted out) I think Cameroon is a disaster waiting to happen. My dark horses are Paraguay, sure the final might be fanciful, but for group success and maybe even an each way shout for the semis. They are strong defensively and have real competition up front and even just added another striker who had been on fire in the Bundesliga and who's got 3 in 3 internationals in the last two months. They were strong in South American qualifying, they have World Cup group stages pedigree, and best of all they are the altitude specialists. If Italy start slowly Paraguay could even win that group because they're as well equipped if not more so to score goals against the other two make-weights and that could be the difference if they can hold Italy to a draw in the opener, where Italy are notoriously conservative. Speaking of Italy, convinced that both they and England have been blessed with extraordinarily easy groups, I've had a bet on their combined first round goal scored being 15 or more. For top goalscorer, if you are jumping on an Italy striker in the hope New Zealand and Slovakia offer field days, I would offer Di Natale far more so than Gilardino, he was top score in Serie A last season for a team that struggled and he looks bang on form. I liked the earlier poster's suggestion of Cacau as I was following him as value also. Sadly I'd be surprised if Germany were that unpredictable. Rooney, and I say this impartially not being an England fan, is an obvious pick if he stays fit. I haven't bought into the money on Uruguay, they scraped past Costa Rica in a play off, Forlan had an exhausting season and will need some help, yet they've simply got no game-changers behind him and Suarez. Their other players had average seasons and their temperament is the worst at the WC which is a volatile combination to be playing the hosts, I can see them losing player/s and qualification chances against South Africa, ref succumbing to pressure of the occasion to cast them as pantomine villains. For Portugal anything is possible, I'm not overly confident after qualifying but have some comfort that we're now establishing a very gritty defensively minded team (perhaps Queiroz studied Italy's last WC) the problem will be who'll score the goals. Queiroz coached in South Africa so our acclimitisation has been good. The trick is to get out of a nightmare group with Brasil and Ivory Coast, who are still a legitimate tip with or without Drogba - without him Kader Keita gets more playing time and he's a fantastic player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internetjef Posted June 11, 2010 Report Share Posted June 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted June 11, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2010 Re the post above, here's a link for 888.com. Most bookies will give some form of complimentary free bet when you open an account and they'll also pay a commission to the Trust to help fund this website if you sign up after clicking a link from this forum. See Blagdon Red's pinned post in the new "What we're buying" forum for details about Skimlinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WellRedPhil Posted June 13, 2010 Report Share Posted June 13, 2010 I've got a fair few on, had England down for the draw last night which won me a bit, but in no way softens the blow! I had Brazil and Robinho at 80/1 which I thought was excellent value and I also have a bet on group winners, going for all the obvious choices came in at close to 30/1, and I did another with Uruguay to win theirs instead of France and that was almost 50/1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olé Posted June 25, 2010 Report Share Posted June 25, 2010 I think Cameroon is a disaster waiting to happen. My dark horses are Paraguay, sure the final might be fanciful, but for group success and maybe even an each way shout for the semis. They are strong defensively and have real competition up front and even just added another striker who had been on fire in the Bundesliga and who's got 3 in 3 internationals in the last two months. They were strong in South American qualifying, they have World Cup group stages pedigree, and best of all they are the altitude specialists. If Italy start slowly Paraguay could even win that group Smug mode My group bets placed before the tournament have each been coming in during the last 48 hours, Ghana to go through @ 7-4, Paraguay to win group at @ 4-1, and forecast on Group E Netherlands 1st, Japan 2nd @ 9-1 (where the bookies had Japan finishing dead last). The bookies view of Japan has just been a licence to print money, they've been paying out all tournament, I had them at 4-1 just to beat Cameroon (following the point copied above I made about Cameroon earlier in the tournament) and my mate had them today at 9-4. I haven't bought into the money on Uruguay, they scraped past Costa Rica in a play off, Forlan had an exhausting season and will need some help, yet they've simply got no game-changers behind him and Suarez. Their other players had average seasons and their temperament is the worst at the WC which is a volatile combination to be playing the hosts, I can see them losing player/s and qualification chances against South Africa, ref succumbing to pressure of the occasion to cast them as pantomine villains. Okay, I got this one wrong, but note the line on temperament, they pick up red cards like it's Christmas, it was the same in qualifying. Given that you get about 4-1 with Betfair for each match on there being a red card, I backed this on each of Uruguay's games. Against the French, yes, red card. Against South Africa yes again (though oddly it was the South African keeper rather than Uruguay but the bet comes in) so that one has paid out twice this tournament too and I'm going to keep doing it each time they play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WellRedPhil Posted June 25, 2010 Report Share Posted June 25, 2010 I took advantage of Paddy Power pricing Uruguay at 7/2 to beat Mexico! I know they both needed a point but I thought they'd both go for it as none of them would want to face Argentina in the last 16. I've been well impressed by Uruguay so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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