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What Is The Magic Number


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Forest are currently on track for 40 points, Doncaster 39, and Coventry 34. We're on track for 46.

I'd imagine that one of those clubs will probably have a better end to the season than their current form, but a team above us may well have a much worse end to the season, so it's impossible to predict, but I'd imagine that relegation will be around the 42 points mark again.

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We need 5/6 wins to ensure our safety, with a few draws along the way. With 16 games left, we have a good chance!

Palace home - win

Peterborough Away- draw

Blackpool home - loss

Ipswich away - draw

Leicester home - loss

Cardiff home - draw

Portsmouth away - win

Watford home - win

Middlesbrough away - loss

Derby home - win

Forest away - draw

Coventry home - win

Brum away - loss

West ham home - draw

Barnsley home - win

Burnley away - loss

That would leave us on 53 points. Which would just about save us IMO

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We need 5/6 wins to ensure our safety, with a few draws along the way. With 16 games left, we have a good chance!

Palace home - win

Peterborough Away- draw

Blackpool home - loss

Ipswich away - draw

Leicester home - loss

Cardiff home - draw

Portsmouth away - win

Watford home - win

Middlesbrough away - loss

Derby home - win

Forest away - draw

Coventry home - win

Brum away - loss

West ham home - draw

Barnsley home - win

Burnley away - loss

That would leave us on 53 points. Which would just about save us IMO

5 of those games are effecively "6 pointers" as well. Our fate is certainly in our own hands, So there would be noone else to blame if the worst should happen.

I think you have been very generous there with your predictions. I think it is looking more like around 15 points that I would "expect" from those games. That SHOULD be enough, but it will be a close call!

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Palace home - draw

Peterborough Away- draw

Blackpool home - loss

Ipswich away - loss

Leicester home - loss

Cardiff home - draw

Portsmouth away - draw

Watford home - win

Middlesbrough away - loss

Derby home - draw

Forest away - draw

Coventry home - win

Brum away - loss

West ham home - loss

Barnsley home - win

Burnley away - loss

That gives us 45 points and right on the brink - eeeeek!

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Those three games in a row around Easter will be crucial. If we're within 5 points of the dopr zone after the Coventry game then we're pretty screwed I reckon with Birmingham and Burnley away and West Ham at home in the last 4. You'd hope that a couple of good results around Easter will pull us far enough away that we don't have to worry too much about the last 4 games.

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