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Stat Madness...and The Importance Of Pompey Away


Red Ferret

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Check this out

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html

An utter stat-fest that gets updated after every game and shows how it believes other results impact your teams chances of going up or down

Its all a bit heavy, but from what I can see is...

- Based on previous results we currently have a 45% chance of being relegated

- If we lose v Pompey on Saturday this will increase to a 55% chance of being relegated

- If we draw it will be reduced to 42% chance of being relegated

- If we win then it is reduced to a 24% of being relegated!!!

I know stats never tell the whole truth but thought its a cool link to check out...and shows just how important Saturdays game is for us if we win

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Very interesting from the bits at the bottom how the chance of relegation is effectively zero from 50 points, backing up the old rule of thumb. A few other "thresholds£ show as well - for example there's a big drop going to 47 points (15% risk to 7%) and again from 47 to 48 (then down to 2% risk). But for me the biggest one is 44 points - where the simulation gives a 50/50 chance of staying up. As things stand we therefore need to beat this if we can.

Great site thanks - now bookmarked

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Nice site. It does indeed show the importance of this game. I'm sure we will win. We'd better win. I will cry if we don't win.

I think your going to be crying.....Pompey are better than their position suggests.....and yes recent RESULTS have been poor....but PERFORMANCES have been ok.....

They are a decent outfit and I will definately take a point.

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I think your going to be crying.....Pompey are better than their position suggests.....and yes recent RESULTS have been poor....but PERFORMANCES have been ok.....

They are a decent outfit and I will definately take a point.

Indeed they've lost a few of players but they have enough experienced players left to put out a very good team.

They've lost Mullins, Lawrence, Huseklepp and Henderson but in reality this is not much worse worse than City being without Elliot, Clarkson and Wilson for the rest of the season, plus the other injuries we've suffered such as Skuse for an extended period.

Unless I've missed anything they will still have the likes of Ashdown, Rocha, Mokoena, Pearce, Halford, Ben Haim, Etuhu, Norris, Futacs, Varney, Kitson, Benjani, and Kanu to choose from.

They've got an Academy so they've got plenty of backup if necessary and will have their own Joe Bryan's ready to take their chance.

Their crowd will be right up for it and we know Fratton Park is a hard place to get a result, especially considering our dreadful away form.

I'd be more than happy with a point, and ecstatic with 3.

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They've lost Mullins, Lawrence, Huseklepp and Henderson but in reality this is not much worse worse than City being without Elliot, Clarkson and Wilson for the rest of the season,

I think we might be able to struggle by without Clarky, Nogbad! ;)

The fact is the game by no means in the bag, although the Skate I'm working with today seems to think they won't win another game this season.

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I think we might be able to struggle by without Clarky, Nogbad! ;)

The fact is the game by no means in the bag, although the Skate I'm working with today seems to think they won't win another game this season.

Fair enough R-R, how about Maynard instead then, he won't be playing for City again this season either. :yes:

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