Red Ferret Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Check this out http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/ChampionshipLeague.html An utter stat-fest that gets updated after every game and shows how it believes other results impact your teams chances of going up or down Its all a bit heavy, but from what I can see is... - Based on previous results we currently have a 45% chance of being relegated - If we lose v Pompey on Saturday this will increase to a 55% chance of being relegated - If we draw it will be reduced to 42% chance of being relegated - If we win then it is reduced to a 24% of being relegated!!! I know stats never tell the whole truth but thought its a cool link to check out...and shows just how important Saturdays game is for us if we win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse With No Name Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think if we lose, we have a far higher chance of going down than 55% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grifty Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 That made my brain melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipdawg Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Shitty iPhone post!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grifty Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I will n See, he only got half way through a sentence and his brain died! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipdawg Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I will not pretend for a second I understand even half of that. Disappointing to see that we apparenty have no chance of promotion now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Very interesting from the bits at the bottom how the chance of relegation is effectively zero from 50 points, backing up the old rule of thumb. A few other "thresholds£ show as well - for example there's a big drop going to 47 points (15% risk to 7%) and again from 47 to 48 (then down to 2% risk). But for me the biggest one is 44 points - where the simulation gives a 50/50 chance of staying up. As things stand we therefore need to beat this if we can. Great site thanks - now bookmarked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JammyOne Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nice site. It does indeed show the importance of this game. I'm sure we will win. We'd better win. I will cry if we don't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volta Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nice site. It does indeed show the importance of this game. I'm sure we will win. We'd better win. I will cry if we don't win. I think your going to be crying.....Pompey are better than their position suggests.....and yes recent RESULTS have been poor....but PERFORMANCES have been ok..... They are a decent outfit and I will definately take a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nogbad the Bad Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think your going to be crying.....Pompey are better than their position suggests.....and yes recent RESULTS have been poor....but PERFORMANCES have been ok..... They are a decent outfit and I will definately take a point. Indeed they've lost a few of players but they have enough experienced players left to put out a very good team. They've lost Mullins, Lawrence, Huseklepp and Henderson but in reality this is not much worse worse than City being without Elliot, Clarkson and Wilson for the rest of the season, plus the other injuries we've suffered such as Skuse for an extended period. Unless I've missed anything they will still have the likes of Ashdown, Rocha, Mokoena, Pearce, Halford, Ben Haim, Etuhu, Norris, Futacs, Varney, Kitson, Benjani, and Kanu to choose from. They've got an Academy so they've got plenty of backup if necessary and will have their own Joe Bryan's ready to take their chance. Their crowd will be right up for it and we know Fratton Park is a hard place to get a result, especially considering our dreadful away form. I'd be more than happy with a point, and ecstatic with 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red-Robbo Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 They've lost Mullins, Lawrence, Huseklepp and Henderson but in reality this is not much worse worse than City being without Elliot, Clarkson and Wilson for the rest of the season, I think we might be able to struggle by without Clarky, Nogbad! The fact is the game by no means in the bag, although the Skate I'm working with today seems to think they won't win another game this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nogbad the Bad Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think we might be able to struggle by without Clarky, Nogbad! The fact is the game by no means in the bag, although the Skate I'm working with today seems to think they won't win another game this season. Fair enough R-R, how about Maynard instead then, he won't be playing for City again this season either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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