The Maths

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

There are, believe it or not, 81 possible permutations of points from the last three games for City and Coventry. Either team can get 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7 or 9 points from their last three games. The reassuring news is that only 16 of these 81 permutations would see us down, 65 would keep us up.

The only permutations which would see us down are:

We get 5 points, Coventry get 9

We get 4 points, Coventry get 9

We get 3 points, Coventry get 9 or 7

We get 2 points, Coventry get 9,7 or 6

We get 1 point, Coventry get 9,7,6 or 5

We get no points, Coventry get 9,7,6,5 or 4

To put it simply, if we win one game, Coventry have to win at least two and draw the other. And they still have to to Southampton for their promotion party. I think one win will do it.

[Brizzle Jordan]

Top post, very positive way to look at things.

[cityexile]

We need to win a home game now.

W Ham feels like a shot to nothing - if that does not come off, then we have to beat Barnsley. Do that and the finishing line will be in sight!

[Super]

There are, believe it or not, 81 possible permutations of points from the last three games for City and Coventry. Either team can get 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7 or 9 points from their last three games. The reassuring news is that only 16 of these 81 permutations would see us down, 65 would keep us up.

The only permutations which would see us down are:

We get 5 points, Coventry get 9

We get 4 points, Coventry get 9

We get 3 points, Coventry get 9 or 7

We get 2 points, Coventry get 9,7 or 6

We get 1 point, Coventry get 9,7,6 or 5

We get no points, Coventry get 9,7,6,5 or 4

To put it simply, if we win one game, Coventry have to win at least two and draw the other. And they still have to to Southampton for their promotion party. I think one win will do it.

If West Ham beat us then that would most certainly mean that Saints will need a result last day.

[redlandrebel]

Still squeaky bum time then, to be absolutely sure we need to win two of the three matches. Just need to make sure we get something on Tuesday and pray that Millwall peform at the Ricoh Arena.

[Kermit the Frog]

Loving this post, makes me feel much more confident

[Calculus]

There are, believe it or not, 81 possible permutations of points from the last three games for City and Coventry. Either team can get 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7 or 9 points from their last three games. The reassuring news is that only 16 of these 81 permutations would see us down, 65 would keep us up.

The only permutations which would see us down are:

We get 5 points, Coventry get 9

We get 4 points, Coventry get 9

We get 3 points, Coventry get 9 or 7

We get 2 points, Coventry get 9,7 or 6

We get 1 point, Coventry get 9,7,6 or 5

We get no points, Coventry get 9,7,6,5 or 4

To put it simply, if we win one game, Coventry have to win at least two and draw the other. And they still have to to Southampton for their promotion party. I think one win will do it.

... and we can still catch Barnsley and Forest if Coventry do start winning.

[Brizzle Jordan]

The game vs Barnsley will be just as big as the Coventry game imo, massive game where we need to turn it on!

COYR.

[cityexile]

Would feel a little happier if Barnsley secure safety at Hull first, and if Millwall had something to play for against Coventry, but we are were we are. Some weeks back I was thinking if we are out of the bottom three with the last two games to go I would take that, and now we cannot be any worse off than that.

Today was the real worry for me - even if they had taken one point off us, they would have been thinking WHam beat us, they beat Millwall and they are above us again.

In our hands. Players are still going hard at it, so odds must be in our favour now, and Coventrys small sqaud seems to be hurting them again. Happier when the season is over and we are still a championship side of course!

[bearded_red]

^{The underlying factor is if we play as well as we did today in the next three games we will claim 7/9 points and stay up comfortably. I was really worried how losing our lead would effect us today, as at 2-0 up it was basically party time, but we reacted fantastically and only one team showed any desire to go on and win the game and that was us. Obviosuly it's a bit annoying to draw as we were the better team today, let a two goal lead slip and Woolford should have put us 3-1 up (Not criticising him though as he was very impressive) but in the bigger picture it is a massive point. I fully expected us to lose today so would have grabbed your hand off at 2:59 if you offered me the chance to simply match Coventry's result.}

[cityexile]

And another little effect of todays results - even in a worse case scenario now over the next two games, we take it to the last day!

[xerox6060]

Would feel a little happier if Barnsley secure safety at Hull first, and if Millwall had something to play for against Coventry, but we are were we are. Some weeks back I was thinking if we are out of the bottom three with the last two games to go I would take that, and now we cannot be any worse off than that.

Today was the real worry for me - even if they had taken one point off us, they would have been thinking WHam beat us, they beat Millwall and they are above us again.

In our hands. Players are still going hard at it, so odds must be in our favour now, and Coventrys small sqaud seems to be hurting them again. Happier when the season is over and we are still a championship side of course!

Agreed I think Cov have a decent chance of a beating a safe Wall side now, while I think i'd rather an uninterested and secure Barnsley turn up at the Gate next week. though obviously we can pull them right into it if they lose at Hull on Tues.

[Alex_BCFC]

Why would you want Barnsley to be safe by next Saturday? We can catch them as I think they will lose at Hull and we will be level on points with them this time next week.

[bcfcbs20]

^{The underlying factor is if we play as well as we did today in the next three games we will claim 7/9 points and stay up comfortably. I was really worried how losing our lead would effect us today, as at 2-0 up it was basically party time, but we reacted fantastically and only one team showed any desire to go on and win the game and that was us. Obviosuly it's a bit annoying to draw as we were the better team today, let a two goal lead slip and Woolford should have put us 3-1 up (Not criticising him though as he was very impressive) but in the bigger picture it is a massive point. I fully expected us to lose today so would have grabbed your hand off at 2:59 if you offered me the chance to simply match Coventry's result.}

What a delicious ball from Skuse to play him in I was hoping there was going to be some spin on the ball as it went loose.

[cityexile]

Might be rubbish, but given a choice still prefer to pick mid table teams with nothing to play for - does not always work out that way of course.

Some meaningless stats...playing teams the second time around, we have got the same result 11 times, worse just twice (Hull and Watford), and better 7 times.

I will admit its a small sample, but every time we have won first time round, we have done the double.

Our record against the 3 teams we have left to play is D, W,W.

Just keep our record intact, and we are safe!

[Kermit the Frog]

Put out the kids for WHAM and play full strength for the Tykes, sort of a Mad Mick idea?

That was terrible! Please, no!

[xerox6060]

Why would you want Barnsley to be safe by next Saturday? We can catch them as I think they will lose at Hull and we will be level on points with them this time next week.

Mm fair coments i'm just speculating that they are perhaps more likely to do better at home to Brighton last day than us at Burnley, so a relaxed Barnsley next Saturday will have less incentive to play, I suppose i'm focussing on making sure we're above Cov, but also a fair point to say Barnsley are falling like a stone at present.

[Murraysrightplum]

We could reel in Barnsley if we beat them. Forest still not safe as well. Wish we had better goal difference...

[Garland-sweden]

Barnsley have had a very bad run. Not surprised if they lose the 3 games left. We have a good chance to survial.

[old_eastender]

^{The underlying factor is if we play as well as we did today in the next three games we will claim 7/9 points and stay up comfortably. I was really worried how losing our lead would effect us today, as at 2-0 up it was basically party time, but we reacted fantastically and only one team showed any desire to go on and win the game and that was us. Obviosuly it's a bit annoying to draw as we were the better team today, let a two goal lead slip and Woolford should have put us 3-1 up (Not criticising him though as he was very impressive) but in the bigger picture it is a massive point. I fully expected us to lose today so would have grabbed your hand off at 2:59 if you offered me the chance to simply match Coventry's result.}

Hang on, Woolford Impressive, surely this MUST be a mis-type?

[OldlandReddies]

Barnsley are right in the thick of it too. If we can match their result on Tuesday and beat them by 3 on Saturday then they too will be behind us. Bring it on.

[Alex_BCFC]

Barnsley are right in the thick of it too. If we can match their result on Tuesday and beat them by 3 on Saturday then they too will be behind us. Bring it on.

This is why it is vitally important not to lose heavily against West Ham who have scored 13 in the last 3 I think.

[OldlandReddies]

Barnsley have won 1 in last twelve and picked up just 5 points in that time. On that form there is only one way they are going........down ! Perhaps us and Cov can both stay up once again.

[Brizzle Jordan]

I can see Barnsley picking up a point at Hull on tuesday.

[DC Red]

I do not know if this has been mentioned, but for those with long memories, there is one result combination with echoes from the distant past...

IF City beat West Ham, Barnsley lose to Hull and Coventry draw with Millwall. This would leave City and Barnsley on 47 points each and Coventry on 41 points (six points behind with two games to go).

In this situation, a "bore" draw between City and Barnsley next weekend would see BOTH teams mathematically safe... To me this has echoes from 35 years ago, when on May 19th, 1977 City and Coventry (of all teams) famously drew 2-2 to both avoid relegation from the old first division.

[Kingswood Robin]

I do not know if this has been mentioned, but for those with long memories, there is one result combination with echoes from the distant past...

IF City beat West Ham, Barnsley lose to Hull and Coventry draw with Millwall. This would leave City and Barnsley on 47 points each and Coventry on 41 points (six points behind with two games to go).

In this situation, a "bore" draw between City and Barnsley next weekend would see BOTH teams mathematically safe... To me this has echoes from 35 years ago, when on May 19th, 1977 City and Coventry (of all teams) famously drew 2-2 to both avoid relegation from the old first division.

I hadn't noticed this. It's a real possibility.

[slartibartfast]

There are, believe it or not, 81 possible permutations of points from the last three games for City and Coventry. Either team can get 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7 or 9 points from their last three games. The reassuring news is that only 16 of these 81 permutations would see us down, 65 would keep us up.

The only permutations which would see us down are:

We get 5 points, Coventry get 9

We get 4 points, Coventry get 9

We get 3 points, Coventry get 9 or 7

We get 2 points, Coventry get 9,7 or 6

We get 1 point, Coventry get 9,7,6 or 5

We get no points, Coventry get 9,7,6,5 or 4

To put it simply, if we win one game, Coventry have to win at least two and draw the other. And they still have to to Southampton for their promotion party. I think one win will do it.

One problem with that....

Every week there is a possibility of three results, TWO we would be quite happy with, ONE makes us unhappy QED the odds of being unhappy would appear to be 2/1 against.....how many times have we been unhappy this season ?

[havanatopia]

Barnsley are right in the thick of it too. If we can match their result on Tuesday and beat them by 3 on Saturday then they too will be behind us. Bring it on.

True and by then Coventry will be down. imo.

[fulham red]

I actually think 1 point might do it. A realistic outcome for Coventry's games is for them to draw v Millwall, beat Donny and lose to Southampton. That gives them an extra 4 points - level with what we have now. So just a draw from one of our remaining games would do it. Here's hoping...

[Super]

I actually think 1 point might do it. A realistic outcome for Coventry's games is for them to draw v Millwall, beat Donny and lose to Southampton. That gives them an extra 4 points - level with what we have now. So just a draw from one of our remaining games would do it. Here's hoping...

Difficult to predict really. Sure most people thought we would both lose yesterday. The plus side is that now it looks likely Saints will have something to play for last day.