Esmond Million's Bung Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 48 hours before the draw much of the media was already talking about Manu v Real Madrid. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/champions-league-draw-matches-rehearsal-odds-better-might-191618943--sow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Fishy...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 I don't understand the title of this thread, because the odds are not 200000/1, nor are they close to that figure. They're significantly shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loderingo Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 I don't understand the title of this thread, because the odds are not 200000/1, nor are they close to that figure. They're significantly shorter. Indeed. The basic odds were 8-1 but Madrid's odds of drawing Man U were only 5-1 as they couldn't get Dortmund (same group) or Barcelona/Malaga (same country) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Indeed. The basic odds were 8-1 but Madrid's odds of drawing Man U were only 5-1 as they couldn't get Dortmund (same group) or Barcelona/Malaga (same country) I think the point was that the entire draw is the same as the rehersal, not just Real Vs Man U. Even so, it's not anywhere near 200000/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portland Bill Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think the point was that the entire draw is the same as the rehersal, not just Real Vs Man U. Even so, it's not anywhere near 200000/1. In the rehearsal Man U got Celtic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Zeppelin Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Champions League Last 16 Draw: Actual Fixtures Exactly Same As Rehearsal, Odds Of That Happening About ’1 In 2 Million’ http://www.whoateallthepies.tv/champions_league/151000/champions-league-last-16-draw-actual-fixtures-exactly-same-as-rehearsal-odds-of-that-happening-about-1-in-2-million.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Right.... The first team from the left hand side is irrelevant, and they cannot draw a team from the same group that they were in, so it's a 7/1 chance that the first pairing is the same as one of the pairings in the rehersal. (There are 8 possible pairings, but we know one of them cannot happen) Assuming the draw was perfectly random (which of course it isn't, certain teams can only draw certain opponents) the order of teams from the left hand side is irrelevant as long as they are paired with the same club as in the rehersal. That gives a MAXIMUM odds of 7/1x7/1x6/1x5/1x4/1x3/1x2/1 = 35280/1 However, there are so many constraints that are not taken into consideration here, so the true odds are considerable SHORTER than 35280/1 and certainly no where near 2 million. That so called 'ESPN Statistician' is horribly wrong. The thing most people are not understanding is that the draw was the same as the rehersal in the sense that all the ties are the same. They weren't drawn in the exact same order though, I watched it. It is nowhere near as unlikely as people seem to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Champions League Last 16 Draw: Actual Fixtures Exactly Same As Rehearsal, Odds Of That Happening About ’1 In 2 Million’ http://www.whoateallthepies.tv/champions_league/151000/champions-league-last-16-draw-actual-fixtures-exactly-same-as-rehearsal-odds-of-that-happening-about-1-in-2-million.html Maths are very wrong when you take into account all the stipulations. It's unlikely but not astronomically so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 In the rehearsal Man U got Celtic! Ummm. No, they didn't, unless you had your own private rehearsal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan Tansley Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are they talking actual odds as in likelihood or that which a bookies might offer, as those two things are completely different. Can't be arsed to read it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arrytheb Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 According to football statisticians Opta the odds of the draw happening again are 2,160,900-1. The mathematics is made difficult by the fact that teams are not allowed to be drawn against one of their opponents from the group stage, or a club that plays in the same country. This means that the odds actually change every time a pairing is drawn. But, disregarding the order, the odds of the same eight pairings being drawn were made are based on the fact there were four group winners who had seven potential opponents in the next round, two group winners who had six potential opponents, while two others had just 5 teams they could be drawn against in the first knock-out phase. Hence the formula used by Opta was: 7 to the power 4 x 6 to the power 2 x 5 to the power 2 = 2,160,900-1 Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2251604/Champions-League-draw-produces-exact-pairings-dress-rehearsal--odds-staggering-2-000-000-1.html#ixzz2FiTqsecL Bookmakers say they would only offer punters odds of 5,000-1 on such an eventuality, but some have suggested the odds are as extreme as nearly 2,000,000-1. Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2251604/Champions-League-draw-produces-exact-pairings-dress-rehearsal--odds-staggering-2-000-000-1.html#ixzz2FiUMQwpF Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are they talking actual odds as in likelihood or that which a bookies might offer, as those two things are completely different. Can't be arsed to read it... Actual probabilities. As far as I am concerned, and I am a statistician who works for a bookmaker, their calculations are misinformed. I watched both draws, and they were not in the same order, just resulted in the same pairings. The calulations for these two things are INCREDIBLY different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esmond Million's Bung Posted December 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 Actual probabilities. As far as I am concerned, and I am a statistician who works for a bookmaker, their calculations are misinformed. I watched both draws, and they were not in the same order, just resulted in the same pairings. The calulations for these two things are INCREDIBLY different. I don't think anyone is claiming that they were in the same order, just the same pairings, the 2 photos clearly show that. I think the real problem is nobody can agree on the odds, but given the ridiculous stipulations, which make a mockery of 'a knock out stage', I suspect the are much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 I don't think anyone is claiming that they were in the same order, just the same pairings, the 2 photos clearly show that. I think the real problem is nobody can agree on the odds, but given the ridiculous stipulations, which make a mockery of 'a knock out stage', I suspect the are much lower. It vastly alters the probability though, which leads to the ludicrous numbers, such as 2 million to one. I suspect this is the mistake many 'statisticians' are making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talk Of The Town Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talk Of The Town Posted December 21, 2012 Report Share Posted December 21, 2012 d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portland Bill Posted December 22, 2012 Report Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ummm. No, they didn't, unless you had your own private rehearsal? I'm going by what radio 5 live said 5 minutes before the real draw. If I'm wrong I apologise, but it's not my fault:) Or perhaps I'm just going mad!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
City1984 Posted December 22, 2012 Report Share Posted December 22, 2012 The odds quoted on sky sports news straight after the draw were either 5000/1 or 8000/1. Can't remember which but they were significantly smaller than the crazy numbers being thrown around here. Don't forget these are book makers and they are not in it to give Joe public value but to make a ridiculous amount of money what ever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kateean2 Posted December 22, 2012 Report Share Posted December 22, 2012 Are they talking actual odds as in likelihood or that which a bookies might offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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