The Original OTIB Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 after 25 games last season, 27 points, after 25 games this season, 22 points. 19th position last, 23rd position now. Bottom 2? Coventry and doncaster. If you were/are a betting man? The way forward has to be a settle side (as much as possible, suspensions and injuries permitting) and a settled system regardless of the opposition. We have to get on the front foot and impose ourselves. There is no other way; whoever is in charge. Deckchairs/Titanic is the all too obvious alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Squirrel Kingdom Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 It may already be too late. In the last three seasons two of the three clubs in the bottom three on January 1st were relegated and the 8/13 that Ladbrokes are offering is about the only reasonably priced bet left. I got 7/4 with Bet Victor at the start of November; we haven't been anywhere near evens since shortly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimplyRed Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 ... we aren't down yet but I'd be very surprised if the Board aren't preparing for life in League One, I know I certainly am. Well I hope not! I don't think we would survive if we got relegated. Lansdown is not a bottomless pit of money, and one wonders how much debt he will allow the club to owe him (?!). This is my particular headache at the moment - if we go down, Lansdown will have to open his wallet again to keep us afloat - Lansdown's dilemma: is the pain (read:cost) of removing McInnes now (and buying the possibility of staying up) more or less than the pain of opening his wallet again to trying to come back up if relegated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo88 Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 Statistically it's not looking promising. I was wondering last night what the odds are of a re-bound back from League 1 within three years of relegation. Some clubs do it, others languish. Seems to be correlated with the size of the club, the larger clubs tend to do better for obvious reasons, though Peterborough are an exception. Wonder where that puts us? I know ... I know ... we aren't down yet but I'd be very surprised if the Board aren't preparing for life in League One, I know I certainly am. I agree. Although I thought that Steve Lansdowne’s speech on the pitch was very good, there were a few worrying hints about looking long term at the problems on and off the pitch. That, together with other things that have been said, makes me think that Steve and the board are preparing for life in division 1 with Del as the manager. They seem to have faith that he is the man who will turn things around so even if we go down I expect to see him as manager next season. (If we do go down he’ll probably get the sack in October) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Original OTIB Posted January 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 and only 6 teams conceded more in the entire football league in the last calendar year... So, I wonder where our problem lies? Expect 2 new strikers in Jan... as ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OfficiallyRed+ Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 How have we let this happen? how have we become so shockingly bad?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Fleuriot Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 The stats are terrifying. We are definitely in a worse situation than we were last season. An escape route is there, but doesn't feel promising. The gap between 21st and 23rd at this time last season was five points (six points if you apply Portsmouth's reduction retrospectively). It's currently three. The team in 18th this time last season (Watford without Portsmouth's deduction, City with) was six or five points clear of 22nd respectively. This season they are six points clear. Last season, three teams achieved less than 18 points from this point onwards; Barnsley (15), Peterborough (17), Doncaster (14). The rest of those finishing in the bottom 8 obtained 21 (Coventry & Portsmouth), 22 (City), 25 (Forest). Mid table (7th to 16th) all gained 31 or more, with the exception of Leeds (23), Burnley (26) and Derby (27). Of teams in the bottom eight at this point last season, Millwall gained 31 points, Ipswich 34 and Watford 34. Were it not for Portsmouth, 48 points would have seen a team relegated. We can expect a couple of teams to speed off from the current bottom six, most likely Ipswich and Birmingham. Even if Wolves, Huddersfield or Charlton collapse, we can't expect them to end on less than 47-49 points. Based on last season, we should assume (worst case) that the others around us will get 22 points. I'd suggest therefore we need at least 26 points to have a chance of being safe. Nine wins from 21 games. It's possible, but doesn't feel plausible with the current bunch. Would need to include at least a four or five game winning streak. Haven't looked at the season before mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+OfficiallyRed+ Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 The stats are terrifying. We are definitely in a worse situation than we were last season. An escape route is there, but doesn't feel promising. The gap between 21st and 23rd at this time last season was five points (six points if you apply Portsmouth's reduction retrospectively). It's currently three. The team in 18th this time last season (Watford without Portsmouth's deduction, City with) was six or five points clear of 22nd respectively. This season they are six points clear. Last season, three teams achieved less than 18 points from this point onwards; Barnsley (15), Peterborough (17), Doncaster (14). The rest of those finishing in the bottom 8 obtained 21 (Coventry & Portsmouth), 22 (City), 25 (Forest). Mid table (7th to 16th) all gained 31 or more, with the exception of Leeds (23), Burnley (26) and Derby (27). Of teams in the bottom eight at this point last season, Millwall gained 31 points, Ipswich 34 and Watford 34. Were it not for Portsmouth, 48 points would have seen a team relegated. We can expect a couple of teams to speed off from the current bottom six, most likely Ipswich and Birmingham. Even if Wolves, Huddersfield or Charlton collapse, we can't expect them to end on less than 47-49 points. Based on last season, we should assume (worst case) that the others around us will get 22 points. I'd suggest therefore we need at least 26 points to have a chance of being safe. Nine wins from 21 games. It's possible, but doesn't feel plausible with the current bunch. Would need to include at least a four or five game winning streak. Haven't looked at the season before mind. We had a chance to go on a winning streak after the peterborough game, and look what happened there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted January 2, 2013 Report Share Posted January 2, 2013 I am an eternal optimist as far as City are concerned and still believe we can stay up. I do think that Barnsley are doomed. I was at Wednesday when we somehow won that day. We were awful and they were worse so I think we wil finish above them as well. That leaves us v Posh. As we have done the double over them then I'd say we have a good chance of finishing 21st which will do for me. As I see it, and going by the average number of points required to stay in this division over the last few seasons, 50 points will be more than enough which means we have to get at least a win, a draw and a loss every 3 games for the remainder of the season. Sounds doable, lets hope the City players think the same ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivers_ctid Posted January 3, 2013 Report Share Posted January 3, 2013 How have we let this happen? how have we become so shockingly bad?? its not that we have got bad its the fact the league had got better other teams have got stronger and we have stayed the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Brent Posted January 4, 2013 Report Share Posted January 4, 2013 Despite all the payments they get, teams don't necessarily go straight back up after being relagated from the top flight. Teams relegated from Prem 2011/12 Bolton (currently 16th in Championship) Blackburn (currently 13th) Wolves (currently 18th) Teams relegated from Prem 2010/11 Birmingham (finished 4th in Championship) Blackpool (finished 5th) West Ham (finished 3rd) - Only West Ham promoted Teams relegated from Prem 2009/10 Burnley (finished 8th in Championship) Hull (finished 11th) Portsmouth (finished 16th) I'd say the Championship was definitely getting stronger. Actually, when we finished 4th it was tbh quite a poor league in comparison (don't wish to discredit our performance that season). Putting fight and passion to one side, you could argue our team now is much stronger than 2007/08. Or, perhaps all the bookies and pundits who predicted our league position back in August actually know what they are on about. Still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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