The Factors A Board Need To Consider Vs. The Factors The Fans (Wrongly) Consider

[the1stknowle]

Long post ahead. Apologies.

I'm sorry Del went and I do think he'll be a good manager elsewhere. I don't think sacking managers is a good idea (and is proven to make little difference http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100190878/it-makes-almost-literally-no-difference-who-replaces-roberto-di-matteo-as-chelseas-manager/ ) but I agree the football of late has been awful and bad football, bad results, bad league position, bad signings, strange loyalty to players that weren't repaying that and no sign of change is difficult to argue with.

The above telegraph article and the stuff it links to are worth reading as they show that a lot of the stuff we bang on about here to compare managers is nonsense and doesn't bear up to scrutiny.

Some considerations the board should be making, I think:

1. Have seen a lot of calls for Warnock on here. This seems unlikely. Firstly because he is the manager of Leeds and we arent in a position to poach the Leeds manager.

Even if he is sacked and would want to come down here, I don't think he'll be appointed. The board just made a big show of a new transfer policy. Paddy Kenny, Clint Hill and Sean Derry fall outside this stated policy to recruit re-sellable youth and these are the type of players Warnock likes to bring in. I just can't see him coming and agreeing to the policy and I think the policy is an excellent one that we should be sticking to. Principles are easy to keep in good times and so they only count if you dont throw them aside through the tough times.

2. I don't think we need the tough nut manager a lot are calling for. Actually, anyone who's got any experience of this knows its often a terrible thing. Players react badly to double training sessions and cancelled xmas parties or booze bans, they sulk, don't play for the manager and if the manager doesn't start getting results and the fans turn, he gets no support from the players and is the easy scapegoat. Avb - cost him chelsea and before the swing in results, nearly cost him spurs. There are plenty of examples of managers cracking the whip and it backfiring. You can say its wrong but it is the way it is. As good as it sounds on paper, being a hardline manager is tough to pull off and not necessarily the best way to handle 30 testosterone-filled men you are trying to bond into a group.

3. Keeping us up is certainly not impossible. But we are in a 4 horse race now and it will need a certain bit of luck. Long term planning says that whilst we don't resign ourselves to relegation in any way and fight until the end, we appoint a manager for the long term, not to try to win a 4 horse fight, the winner of whom will have likely had more than a little luck go their way.

4. So managers rarely make a difference but they dont make a little difference. Therefore the key is to find a good one, which as the article linked shows, is bloody tough. It's talent identification and not looking for a hardnut, or a name, or someone with a contact book, or someone that has "done it before". (When that person has had 4 go's and "done it before" on one out of those 4 occasions. that's not doing it before. That is playing probabilities.) Its much better to look around, find someone who seems to have a record of consistently performing above where they might be expected to perform with the clubs they have had and see if they'd fit your club and ethos.

5. Similarly, although win % is a decent stat, it's clearly not be all and end all. Danny Wilson's one here was amazing. Because he kept us in league one at the higher end. Had he got us promoted, a few seasons of struggle or even mid-table would have significantly reduced his win % but clearly, due to the promotion, we'd have considered him MORE successful, with a LOWER win %.

6. Now McInnes looked like he had talent. And it didnt work. What is almost impossible to wrap our brains around, but what is crucial to, is that that does not mean he was a bad appointment. He was actually a fairly good appointment. But it didn't work it. But it rarely does.

7. So, like all recruiting, it's talent identification + fit for the job and there is a lot of noise you have to tune out when doing that. I hope we stick to this new transfer policy, I hope we arent afraid to go out and get another promising young manager just because one didnt work out. (Hitler and Stalin both had facial hair!) And I hope we appoint for the long term because you can see that the board are desperate to back someone when a lot of other boards out there are trigger happy. For me, I said it last time, I like Tisdale. His record across two clubs is ridiculous and prolonged (although I don't think he'll be appointed and if he was the board would be savaged on this forum). I'll be very happy with O'Driscoll, Mellon, Robins, di canio, davies (although doubt Billy would agree to the transfer policy).

And also, I will support anyone who is manager of this club and not complain before they have managed a game.

So here's hoping they appoint Paul Tisdale or maybe even Micky Mellon. Because even if they get sacked in two year's time, that doesn't mean the appointment was a mistake. Maybe it won't work out. But it rarely does.

[Fordy62]

If I were the sort of person to write +1, I'd write it.

But I'm not. So I won't.

[Robin101]

Uplifting yet depressing at the same time. Impressive.

Ages ago I heard some chairman taking about managers and he said something like "when we interview managers who have failed before at clubs similar to us, we wonder what makes them think they'll be able to succeed here".

[Spike]

Whilst I can agree with some of that post I can't accept it because essentially what it says is "we're going down, we're not getting a good manager and we have to accept mediocrity again". If we've reached this point then essentially we're going back to the situation we were in 10-15 years ago.

The idea of going back that far and with what in my opinion is a far too costly team we'll essentially be in our worst position in over 20 years and if we then lose the Stadium entirely will be without anything to look forward to. All in all I can't accept we've gone that far backwards yet and I think it's about time the board take one final stab at improving our standing as a club, if we fail with a good Championship manager over the next 2 years I would then accept it's time to lay down and accept we're in for a very very long rebuild to get back to the Championship but atm I'm not willing to lay down and die, I just hope the board feel the same way.

[the1stknowle]

Fair enough. Its not supposed to depress. Its just saying a lot of the arguments made on here might not be looking at the right thing. Like if someone says "Hitler and Stalin both had facial hair so we should all clean shave." We all do it, I'm sure Ive done it in my big missive above a few times. The tough thing about being a board is that you are the ones that actually have to weigh the information and decide what factors you will consider important.

The liberating, and suppose uplifting thing, is that if you get it right, it works amazingly well. And also because most dont get it right, the talent doesn't get snapped up. And even when it does, it might not even work out for a whole host of reasons. I think McInnes' appointment was reasonably well thought out and him "failing" here doesn't mean we need to avoid all managers who can tenuously be compared or contrasted with him.

"McInnes didn't have a beard, so I hope we appoint a manager with at least a tache this time". That argument to me is just as relevant as ones about age, one previous success out of 5 attempts, win %, contacts book, hard nuts etc.

Just my opinion which is likely as wrong as everyone else's.

[Corleone]

What championship experience do Tisdale and Mellon have?

[the1stknowle]

Whilst I can agree with some of that post I can't accept it because essentially what it says is "we're going down, we're not getting a good manager and we have to accept mediocrity again". If we've reached this point then essentially we're going back to the situation we were in 10-15 years ago.

The idea of going back that far and with what in my opinion is a far too costly team we'll essentially be in our worst position in over 20 years and if we then lose the Stadium entirely will be without anything to look forward to. All in all I can't accept we've gone that far backwards yet and I think it's about time the board take one final stab at improving our standing as a club, if we fail with a good Championship manager over the next 2 years I would then accept it's time to lay down and accept we're in for a very very long rebuild to get back to the Championship but atm I'm not willing to lay down and die, I just hope the board feel the same way.

If that's what youre reading then that's not my intention. Its saying the opposite. Its saying we dont accept mediocrity, we dont accept being relegated, we lay out our criteria that we are looking for and we chase the best candidate on a set of criteria that actually matter, not the ones a lot of fans and people in the game place too much emphasis on.

I want to appoint the best manager. Ive resigned myself to nothing. What Im saying is that, I think what you call, a good championship manager is not found in the way a lot of fans think. There are good championship managers out there who have never managed in the championship. that doesnt mean we automatically chase a lower league one. There are good ones that have.

So please dont misunderstand me if Im not getting my point over well. Its a post about how to find the very best manager we can - not one about how to settle or lower expectations. Its an extremely optimistic post - or should be.

[the1stknowle]

What championship experience do Tisdale and Mellon have?

Hi Corleone,

Exactly my point.

[BCAGFC]

You can guarantee that not one of the current PL/Championship managers will apply and that says it all really.

We are seen as small fish in the football world, we have a chance of getting a young, talented manager (Robinson/Tisdale etc) but we won't attract a Warnock or a Jones.

Not sure what the board will do, will they go for the long term view (Robinson/Tisdale) or will they go for the footballing dinosaur type (Curbishley/Keane).

I certainly wouldn't want their job.

BCAGFC

[the1stknowle]

You can guarantee that not one of the current PL/Championship managers will apply and that says it all really.

We are seen as small fish in the football world, we have a chance of getting a young, talented manager (Robinson/Tisadle etc) but we won't attract a Warnock or a Jones.

Not sure what the board will do, will they go for the long term view (Robinson/Tisdale) or will they go for the footballing dinosaur type (Curbishley/Keane).

I certainly wouldn't want their job.

BCAGFC

Yeah exactly. Whatever they do they will get mauled on here as we have seen the ardent diversity of opinion across the forum. Some people would love SOD, some people are saying he'd be terrible. Same with all candidates. Board can't win. But if they accept that they can focus on the factors they think are most important.

Agree they need to be realistic but again, to be clear, my point is that we're not after Tisdale or Robinson or Mellon because we can't get Jones or Warnock or Davies or that the former are cheaper options. My point is that the former MIGHT (and I honestly mean might because nobody knows) be better candidates and need to be weighed alongside the more experienced.

[LondonBristolian]

Brilliant OP.

I don't know who I want as manager because I don't know how all the candidates linked would feel about our player recruitment policy etc. but I really want us to get someone in who'll plan for the long-term and work under the framework Landsdown laid out last week and indeed continue the coaching/youth policy revamp that's been started over the last year or so.

I don't really mind how experienced the manager is because it's how good they are and how they fit the club that matters. McInnes and Millen don't prove all inexperienced managers are failures any more than Paolo Di Canio and Malky McKay prove all young, hungry managers do well. But if we get a young manager in it has to be part of a longer policy, not a chop and change if it doesn't work out.

I still believe that, in the future, we might see the McInnes era as the start of a process of change in the club that ultimately pays dividends. McInnes hasn't worked out as our manager because of his team selections and results on the pitch but that doesn't mean that the philosophy behind appointing him was wrong or that all the work behind the scenes over the last year should be cast aside too and I hope we get a manager who buys into what we're doing and keeps it going, whoever that is.

I don't want a ranter whose idea of man management is to pick fights with the players as I think those managers get shown up sooner or later and I don't want a manager who's got mediocre to poor results everywhere he's been but that aside I'll support whoever gets put in place.

[the1stknowle]

Read, dont agree with it short haul, plus a 12 game dead cat bounce, may actually be enough to keep us up. As the report states clearly there are managers who buck the trend, it's finding one that is the key

Warnock has done the whole youth thing before at Palace, with Bostock etc. At Leeds there is the likes of Aidy White as well coming through. So he can work with youth, it isnt a problem. Results at Leeds currently are and I think he is approaching his 'time' to call it quits. We are in a position to go to whomever we like. We can be put off or decide against pursuing managers if there is prohibitive cost. However, the right man is the right man. And the board should go for that.

Well different folks for different strokes. I want a manager who has a set vision for the club in terms of keeping with the philosophy of youth, will improve basic skills, decide a way of play and can be interchanged if results dont work out, for someone who can follow the same vision, but differently or tweek it if you will. Player power and whatever is bandied about like confetti on here if it was as prevalent as people suggest, no club would ever be successful as they would all be prima donnas. In every job it's managing ego's, expectations, talent and providing impetus for those who are under your wing and getting the best out of the players on the pitch. There are several ways of doing that. Some will respond to the stick approach some wont. It's not about having one set philosophy it's about maximising everyone's potential by taking time to work on them to grow as a team

Well, it's close to impossible, we need promotion winning form to stay up currently. It's clear that the board have too late realised this sleepwalking into disaster as usual and the change in direction from them suggests that there has been a realisation, but a bit late. Appoint a manager for the long term is risky. Sorting out a strategy where the personnel are interchangable ala Swansea for example is less so and means that we can survive any management jumps or failings rather than nuking the lot from space just to be sure.

Well we've just tried the potential route. and that didnt work, we have tried the experience, but gave up when the manager walked and we havent really gone back to that ever. Indeed the last 20 years show we have gone for up and coming talent over proven at the level we are at manager more often than not. It has not been a successful chase. So sticking to that really is not going to help as it has consistently not worked. We need to make a decision to some one proven in whatever philosphy that we chose to adapt playing wise, and stick with it. Performing above is not a quantifer of success here either. It needs to be consistent and implemented change in ethos whereby a manager can be replaced if doesnt work

Well GJ's win percentage isnt miles off DW's and we struggled with him initially and at the end. So it does have his advantages and winning more consistently will mean we are stuck with relegation fears. To be honest . Id be happy with a hard to beat team who were disciplined in terms of positioning tactics and player progression as well as following an overall strategy for the long term that a manager could be part of but not so integral that things fall apart should they leave.

I take exception at this, because there was no indication of talent here, none what so ever. He was a terrible appointment and that has been clear for about 12 months if people take a step back and look at it properly.

I hope we stay clear of young promising managers if we havent got a vision to fit and he can be replaced, but maintain the vision if things go rubbish. We have failed so so so many times with the young upcomer it's beuyond belief. And the Davies thing re transfers is a myth Ive proved it before in relation to Preston, If the posts are still on here search through my post history. His spending was less than GJ and others so it can and has been done

Nope to either Im afraid at this stage, unless the board and management are explicitly clear that there is a long term playing and development pattern that is going to be adhered to irrespective of the manager. I dont just mean signing youths either. If they appoint someone of that ilk and just hype as usual we are going to be back to failure very quickly as proven by x number of appointments in that manner thus far

Hi RMLF,

If you read the article and the links and dont agree with them then there is nothing I can do to change your mind. For me its pretty compelling evidence. Most of your points are just statements of things I disagree with in my for reasons stated in my original post. Where you question the point about talent identification with "well we've just tried that and it didn't work." That's exactly my point so if you dont agree with that, there is nothing I can say to persuade you.

I would say a few (try to be quick) things.

• Im not saying Warnock wouldn't work with youth. Im saying (and its my impression based on just his reputation) that he wouldnt agree to be bound by our new policy.
• I totally agree the right man is the right man - that is exactly the point Im making.
• The new manager effect (or the dead cat bounce as it keeps getting called here but for me that refers to something slightly different) - as statistics evidence there is some small truth in it. But if all the bottom teams sack their manager, you have to factor it out as all will, on probability, receive a similar bounce.
• Staying up is tough - not impossible. We're 6 points off safety and in every league its better to focus on the teams around you rather than chase the magical 50 points to safety or whatever. Agree though, we are in a bad way.
• Most importantly, I think you conflate young or inexperienced with what Im calling talent identification. With the exception of McInnes and possibly Pulis, I disagree we have ever gone for up and coming talent. I think we have appointed on noise and bad criteria so I dont accept your argument about the last 20 years. Millen, Tinnion etc - that is not appointing up and coming talent. That is guesswork.

That is all.

[Aizoon]

5. Similarly, although win % is a decent stat, it's clearly not be all and end all. Danny Wilson's one here was amazing. Because he kept us in league one at the higher end. Had he got us promoted, a few seasons of struggle or even mid-table would have significantly reduced his win % but clearly, due to the promotion, we'd have considered him MORE successful, with a LOWER win %.

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Finally, a rational explanation as to why DW bottled the pray-off final...