CiderJar Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 From http://www.theposhforum.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=22298 Needs updating for todays games...... 87 - Maximum points return for Charlton8685 – Maximum points return for Blackpool, Birmingham and Bolton84 – Maximum points return for Huddersfield83 – Maximum points return for Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich8281 – Maximum points return for Wolves8079 – Maximum points return for Barnsley78 – Maximum points return for Peterborough7776 – Maximum points return for Bristol City757473727170 696867666564636261605958 5756555453 – Safety 07-0852 - Highest points return and not being safe, Leicester City 51 – Safety 04-05The Magic 5049 – Safety 11-12 (Without Pompey points deduction)48 – Safety 09-10 47 – Safety 08-09, Average points for safety since Championship began46454443 – Safety 05-06, 06-07, 10-1142 - Highest points return finishing bottom, S****horpe United414039 - Charlton3837 – Birmingham, Blackpool36 – Huddersfield35 – Ipswich, Sheffield Wednesday34 – Bolton33 - Wolves3231 – Barnsley3029 – Lowest Points ever in Championship history.28 – Bristol City27 – Posh and also ..... I like it t-mase. Your table combined with a Pete Wass style predictive table based on each team's form over the last 5 games, if updated, will give us a handle on what we can hope for. Pangloss or Fraser? Team Played Points To play last5 ppm possible totalSheff W 30 35 16 2 32 67Barnsley 30 31 16 2 32 63Ipswich 30 35 16 1.57 25.12 60.12B'ham 30 34 16 1.6 25.6 59.6Bolton 29 34 17 1 17 51Hudds 30 36 16 0.8 12.8 48.8Bristol 30 28 16 1.2 19.2 47.2Posh 29 27 17 1 17 44Wolves 30 33 16 0.4 6.4 39.4Over the last 6 it looks better (and it's easier to do as Statto provides a last 6) :-Edited 9 FebTeam Played Points To play last 6 last6 ppm possible totalBarnsley 31 34 15 13 2.17 32.50 67Charlton 31 40 15 10 1.67 25.00 65Wednesday 31 36 15 11 1.83 27.50 64B'ham 31 38 15 9 1.50 22.50 61Bolton 30 37 16 8 1.33 21.33 58Blackpool 31 40 15 7 1.17 17.50 58Bristol 31 31 15 9 1.50 22.50 54Posh 30 30 16 8 1.33 21.33 51Hudds 31 37 15 5 0.83 12.50 50 Ipswich 31 35 15 5 0.83 12.50 48 Wolves 31 34 15 3 0.50 7.50 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aizoon Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 I love that expression "Pangloss or Fraser"! Even Horace had to think about that one. Curious if none of the current bottom 3 were to go down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manon Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Great info thanks. If things continue a they are going, we are def set for a high points survival margin. The general rule is more points than games played for survival, as is confined by the above stat of average points required since start of championship. A perusal of the leagues reveal that ours is pretty much a one off. Not only are teams in 21st and 22nd well clear of that average, even the bottom side is level pegging with it. Got a feeling we're gonna need 50 or 51 this year. I think yesterday was the first time our points were level with games played since september, do we are getting out of it. just need to carry on, we can't all live with this pace, there will be casualties soon, pray it's not us after the sod honeymoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 SOD's record at Forest was played 26 Won 10 Drew 9 Lost 7 Points 39 which is an average of 1.5 points per game. If he has the same average with us(which he is currently on course too) then we will stay up. 6 more wins will do it with a draw chucked in somewhere along the line. All of those can be picked up at home so any points gained away will just be bonus points. Easy.............on paper ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brizzle Jordan Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is it even realistic that six wins will definitely keep us up? I can see the other sides also winning 5 or 6 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eco Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Think the goals scored shoud also be a stat factor ! We were averaging roughly two goals per game at AG under DMac, kept that going under SOD but difference is we're not conceding. We're on for the highest no. of goals at home for donkeys years, once we start scoring away again we could end up with 60+, surely too many to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is it even realistic that six wins will definitely keep us up? I can see the other sides also winning 5 or 6 games. No need to worry about 'other' sides. With just 15 games left Middlesborough sit in 6th with 47 points ! They are not even safe yet ! 50 will be enough. Could even be less.19 points to get from a possible 45 and I believe we will pick most of those (if not all) up at home. We can go to Cardiff & Palace and enjoy ourselves. All the pressure will be on them. Anything we pick up in those games will be bonus points. Then it will be back to the gate and another big 3 points v Barnsley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfctim Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is it even realistic that six wins will definitely keep us up? I can see the other sides also winning 5 or 6 games. Not every side can win their games though, they've got to be beating somebody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRL Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 No need to worry about 'other' sides. With just 15 games left Middlesborough sit in 6th with 47 points ! They are not even safe yet ! 50 will be enough. Could even be less.19 points to get from a possible 45 and I believe we will pick most of those (if not all) up at home. We can go to Cardiff & Palace and enjoy ourselves. All the pressure will be on them. Anything we pick up in those games will be bonus points. Then it will be back to the gate and another big 3 points v Barnsley. The way other teams are picking up points it could be 50 isn't enough. Teams probably won't keep up their form, but they could do. Hopefully we are not looking for a points total, that would be the worst thing we could do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonBristolian Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Whilst I share TRL's hatred of points totals, I think we need 8 wins from 15 to be anywhere near certainty of survival. Nine of our remaining games are against teams that could still be in the relegation battle so winning most of those'll be crucial. The good thing is that, with no disrespect to the teams we're still to play, there's only four games left (away games at Burnley, Palace, Cardiff and Hull) where I'd make our opponents overwhelming favourites to beat us. It's still going to be tough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 There are certainly a fair few proverbial '6 pointers' to go yet. Win them and it guarantees the other team can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Whilst I share TRL's hatred of points totals, I think we need 8 wins from 15 to be anywhere near certainty of survival. Nine of our remaining games are against teams that could still be in the relegation battle so winning most of those'll be crucial. The good thing is that, with no disrespect to the teams we're still to play, there's only four games left (away games at Burnley, Palace, Cardiff and Hull) where I'd make our opponents overwhelming favourites to beat us. It's still going to be tough though. And those 4 are having a dip' in form at the moment. Being the home team and pushing for automatic promotion/playoffs all the pressure will be on them. Wouldn't be surprised to pick up another 7 points from those games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid in the Riot Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is it even realistic that six wins will definitely keep us up? I can see the other sides also winning 5 or 6 games. We should be aiming for 54 points, which means we still need another 23 points from our remaining 15 games. 7 wins and 2 draws or 6 wins and 5 draws. If we go down on 54 points then you've just gotta say it's been a bit of a freak year in terms of a final points total and O'Driz can't of done anymore to keep us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kaiser Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Is it even realistic that six wins will definitely keep us up? I can see the other sides also winning 5 or 6 games. This is exactly the thing that concerns me. People keep talking about "x number of points and we'll be fine". We've won 3 games on the trot and home and are still bottom but one. We won yesterday and so did Barnsley and Peterboro. This division is fking crazy, who knows what we will need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 So, what you're basically saying is, we've still got a reasonable chance of making the play offs..?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 So, what you're basically saying is, we've still got a reasonable chance of making the play offs..?! Win 12 of the last 15 and yes, we will make the playoffs. Where's that medicene............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lager loud Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Whilst I share TRL's hatred of points totals, I think we need 8 wins from 15 to be anywhere near certainty of survival. Nine of our remaining games are against teams that could still be in the relegation battle so winning most of those'll be crucial. The good thing is that, with no disrespect to the teams we're still to play, there's only four games left (away games at Burnley, Palace, Cardiff and Hull) where I'd make our opponents overwhelming favourites to beat us. It's still going to be tough though. I suspect that the 55 points we'd get if we won another 8 games would be plenty. But I also think that 50 points might not be enough - maybe even 51, taking our goal difference into account. Who we get our points against could end up being crucial. Beating Cardiff and Palace then losing later on to Barnsley and Wednesday would leave us in a very different position than if the results went the other way. I've thought for a while that the home games against Barnsley, Wednesday and Birmingham would be central to our chances of staying up (Ipswich also came into this category). Getting points against the likes of Forest (and, hopefully, Cardiff and Palace) is great to keep us in touch with the teams above us, but with ground still to make up, we can't afford to drop too many points against those around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleepy1968 Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 There are certainly a fair few proverbial '6 pointers' to go yet.Win them and it guarantees the other team can't.Yes - this is all I've been banging on about. We have Sheff Weds, Barnsley, Birmingham, Bolton at home. Wolves andI suspect that the 55 points we'd get if we won another 8 games would be plenty. But I also think that 50 points might not be enough - maybe even 51, taking our goal difference into account.Who we get our points against could end up being crucial. Beating Cardiff and Palace then losing later on to Barnsley and Wednesday would leave us in a very different position than if the results went the other way.I've thought for a while that the home games against Barnsley, Wednesday and Birmingham would be central to our chances of staying up (Ipswich also came into this category). Getting points against the likes of Forest (and, hopefully, Cardiff and Palace) is great to keep us in touch with the teams above us, but with ground still to make up, we can't afford to drop too many points against those around us.If we beat each team in the 5-6 places above us and match the best of them we are in a realistic chance of staying up. The more teams us Barnsley and Peteboro' manage to haul within sniping distance the better.I don't have any time for Man Utd youth/c team but it would be great if us and Barnsley stayed up and a couple of Midlands teams went down. As it is the bottom 3 are in good enough form to avoid relegation.Anyway, whatever happens I'll be satisfied if we continue with our improved performances over the last third of the season, consigning the games B.SOD to the recesses of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's not the Barnsley and Peterborough results that are so important really. If we stay up then it will be those two and one other that go. It's mainly about the results for the teams in 18th to 21st that are the ones to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manon Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Instead of being frustrated at other teams picking up points, I suppose it would be much more constructive to be chuffed that we also have. Imagine we lost yesterday. We'd be screwed. The whole club deflated. What we hav to remember is that, I bet if you visited the barnsley, peterborough, or wed forums, they are cursing us to kingdom come a s well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedUn Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Other teams will pick up points, can't be helped, now how about this? ... ... update the bottom 8 teams to 36 games using the form from their last 5/6 matches and the table with 10 games to go would read: 47 - Sheff Weds 47 - Barnsley 45 - Bolton 42 - Huddersfield 40 - CITY ----------------------- 40 - Ipswich 38 - Peterborough 37 - Wolves Doesn't prove anything of course but it does confirm my impression that as of right now there are other teams with worse form than us being dragged ever deeper into the mire. To stand any hope of escape, they will somehow have to manifest the sort of improved form that Wednesday, Barnsley and ourselves are already showing ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunnyfunt Posted February 10, 2013 Report Share Posted February 10, 2013 Things are very interesting at the bottom at the moment. The way it's going around 6/7 teams could be in relegation contention on the final day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted February 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2013 Other teams will pick up points, can't be helped, now how about this? ... ... update the bottom 8 teams to 36 games using the form from their last 5/6 matches and the table with 10 games to go would read: 47 - Sheff Weds 47 - Barnsley 45 - Bolton 42 - Huddersfield 40 - CITY ----------------------- 40 - Ipswich 38 - Peterborough 37 - Wolves Doesn't prove anything of course but it does confirm my impression that as of right now there are other teams with worse form than us being dragged ever deeper into the mire. To stand any hope of escape, they will somehow have to manifest the sort of improved form that Wednesday, Barnsley and ourselves are already showing ... Does your Red'Un website still exist? I can't seem to find it. It always used to be a good site for stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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