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Playing Devil's Advocate....the Odds


Tall King Blox

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Tis the time of year when boredom kicks in ahead of the new years celebrations, stinking cold and jack daniels assisted new topic, 

I am not a gambler by any means so i expect you guys to put me straight an this question...

 

What odds are given for the bristol clubs to frig it up big style by the end of the season ?

meaning City, Rovers and Egg Chasers all to fail during the play off's ( if they get there )

 

Sorry guys n galls, this aint a downer, just one for the stato's to ponder....over to you..oh and happy new ears x

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Rovers are very much odds against to go up.  You can get between 2/1 and 3/1 on them to be promoted (I think that's an attractive price by the way and have had a few quid on them to go up).  City very much odds on to go up.

Very little liquidity on the betting exchanges so hard to get a decent price on City NOT to go up.

As for Bristol rugby I would have them as shorter favourites than City to go up, even though they seem to walk the league and mess up the playoffs every year.

 

At a guess I would say the rough odds of all 3 messing up would be about 10/1 or so.

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Rovers are very much odds against to go up.  You can get between 2/1 and 3/1 on them to be promoted (I think that's an attractive price by the way and have had a few quid on them to go up).  City very much odds on to go up.

Very little liquidity on the betting exchanges so hard to get a decent price on City NOT to go up.

As for Bristol rugby I would have them as shorter favourites than City to go up, even though they seem to walk the league and mess up the playoffs every year.

 

At a guess I would say the rough odds of all 3 messing up would be about 10/1 or so.

Wow...10-1 to all gamblers that's gotta be worth a crazy tenner to ease the pain if we do frig it up royally....thanks for your input, btw, it was the egg chasers curse that inspired the topic....well that and rovers epic **** up last season !

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Rovers are very much odds against to go up.  You can get between 2/1 and 3/1 on them to be promoted (I think that's an attractive price by the way and have had a few quid on them to go up).  City very much odds on to go up.

Very little liquidity on the betting exchanges so hard to get a decent price on City NOT to go up.

As for Bristol rugby I would have them as shorter favourites than City to go up, even though they seem to walk the league and mess up the playoffs every year.

 

At a guess I would say the rough odds of all 3 messing up would be about 10/1 or so.

Think that's about right, I get to approx 11.6/1 based on reversing the odds to go up, but given those odds are understated to create an over round book for the bookies, reversing will overstate, so def need to shave a bit off, so 10/1 seems fair. This is based on not going up, rather than not going up via the play-offs, which should give marginally longer odds (albeit difficult to see the 3 clubs finishing outside the play offs). 

 

In terms of the individual odds, personal views but:

  • City 2/5 to go up, seems a bit skinny - we'd only not go up 2 times in 7 from this position? Maybe just being pessimistic, but with 4 strong teams and a play off lottery to come, 2/5 doesn't cry out for hard earned cash
  • Rovers 9/4 to go up - they seem to have some momentum, so think there's a fair chance they'll catch Barnet and they don't tend to do badly in play offs, so 9/4 maybe a decent bet (to hope to lose money on)
  • Bristol 4/6 to go up - would love it if they did, but way too much of a lottery to be backable - they could win all 25 games they play in the league, lose the 26th by a couple of points (maybe just a point if there's a 'most tries' rule) and not go up; dismal rules and so easy to fix if second bottom in Premiership played off against winner of 2nd/3rd playoff in Championship (or similar)
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Wow...10-1 to all gamblers that's gotta be worth a crazy tenner to ease the pain if we do frig it up royally....thanks for your input, btw, it was the egg chasers curse that inspired the topic....well that and rovers epic **** up last season !

Fancy us and the gas to go up and the egg chasers to *##* up in the play offs against bloody Worcester.

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You can actually get 11/4 on the Gas to go up (Boyles). Pretty good odds, plus a nice bit of insurance on this unwelcome possibility. Double Bristol promotions have happened quite a few times too.

Please don,t remind me, still having nightmares about the " Definitely a Dry Blackthorn Day " Ads, when they pipped us to the post last time round......

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