Snp Surge In Scotland (Surge Doesn't Even Half Cover It!)

[Chairman Mao]

Forget about the supposed UKIP surge in Scotland the SNP are decimating all comers in a wrecking ball operation. 

 

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/04/snp-set-for-56-of-59-scottish-seats-in-general-election-poll-suggests

 

Probably one of the most incredible turnarounds UK politics has ever seen with swings of well over 20% in a whole host of seats. 

 

It looks increasingly likely that it is the SNP which will form a coalition while Scotland degenerates into factionalist pro and anti union camps as the decade draws to a close ala Northern Ireland. 

 

UK politics as we know it is pretty much broke, the next 20 years should be interesting. 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Well one thing is totally obvious is a vote for Labour in England will be a vote for the SNP in government black mailing Ed into more English cash for benefits that only the Scots will enjoy, of course in the unlikely event that Ed gets enough English seats to even ponder such a traitorous such coalition.

[Red-Robbo]

Well one thing is totally obvious is a vote for Labour in England will be a vote for the SNP in government black mailing Ed into more English cash for benefits that only the Scots will enjoy, of course in the unlikely event that Ed gets enough English seats to even ponder such a traitorous such coalition.

Zzzzzzzzzzz.

Let them go! I'd love to see Jeanette Krankie explain why she can't fulfill all of Salmond's spending promises with half the oil revenue he said they'd be getting.

[Guest]

The same SNP who were basing an independent Scotland on oil revenues.. which the industry is teetering on the brink and threatens to need a bail out by central government. Ah the irony.

 

Is there a guarantee the SNP will form a pact with Labour? Most of the vote surge has come from disgruntled labour voters angry that they didn't get much of the promises thrown about around the time of the independence vote.

[RedM]

I don't think anyone will get enough votes or agreement to go alone or even a two party coalition. But can there really be a 3 party one???

[Calculus]

Miliband is under pressure to announce no deals with the SNP. Coalitions can work, but not when one of the parties is hell bent on the end of the UK. Apart from money they would seek the end of Trident, which although some in the Labour Party would like to see it, would be a major row.

Difficult to see how this ends in the near future. If the 45% that voted for independence vote SNP then they'll just about win every seat - the anti independence vote being split across the others. The unpopularity of Miliband on Scotland is another factor - even Cameron has better personal ratings up there. That's some achievement for Miliband.

In the longer term this will go on until they win their independence. Up to then, look forward to 20 years of them causing trouble

[chipdawg]

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Zzzzzzzzzzz.

Let them go! I'd love to see Jeanette Krankie explain why she can't fulfill all of Salmond's spending promises with half the oil revenue he said they'd be getting.

 

 

Zzzzzzzzzzzz?, would you honestly put it past Ed?, when he officially rules it out I personally will still have to wait until all of the post election horse trading has been done before I believe him, after all he has the letters MP after his name, what more evidence would you need?.

[Chairman Mao]

I don't think anyone will get enough votes or agreement to go alone or even a two party coalition. But can there really be a 3 party one???

I used to live in New Zealand, over there these sorts of coalitions are common as they have a system of proportional representation. Same I think for places on the continent like Germany. 

 

I Lib-Dem, SNP, Labour coalition would be funny to watch mind.

[Red-Robbo]

Zzzzzzzzzzzz?, would you honestly put it past Ed?, when he officially rules it out I personally will still have to wait until all of the post election horse trading has been done before I believe him, after all he has the letters MP after his name, what more evidence would you need?.

Rules what out? No one's ruled anything out. Farage at one stage "ruled out" a coalition with the Tories but then he ruled it back in again!

I think it's fair to say that the Greens or Respect (should either have MPs) are unlikely to join a Cameron-led coalition, but everything else is amorphous.

No matter how many seats the SNP have in the general election, you were always going to get a second referendum if the party continues to control the Scottish assembly.

[Aizoon]

UK politics as we know it is pretty much broke, the next 20 years should be interesting.

Possibly in the Chinese sense

[PHILINFRANCE]

Rules what out? No one's ruled anything out. Farage at one stage "ruled out" a coalition with the Tories but then he ruled it back in again!

I think it's fair to say that the Greens or Respect (should either have MPs) are unlikely to join a Cameron-led coalition, but everything else is amorphous.

No matter how many seats the SNP have in the general election, you were always going to get a second referendum if the party continues to control the Scottish assembly.

 

Red.

 

You know as well as I do that XYZ party will rule out whatever seems a good idea at the time, i.e. before the election.

 

If, after the election, XYZ party discovers that its paltry XYZ votes mean that they might be part of a ruling coalition, then their heartfelt values will be dropped - it was ever thus! 

[Red-Robbo]

Red.

 

You know as well as I do that XYZ party will rule out whatever seems a good idea at the time, i.e. before the election.

 

If, after the election, XYZ party discovers that its paltry XYZ votes mean that they might be part of a ruling coalition, then their heartfelt values will be dropped - it was ever thus! 

 

That was kind of my point, Phil....

[PHILINFRANCE]

That was kind of my point, Phil....

 

OK.

 

So is it really worth voting and, if so, for which party?

 

I fear a hopeless coalition.

[Red-Robbo]

OK.

 

So is it really worth voting and, if so, for which party?

 

I fear a hopeless coalition.

 

Hopefully, we get the least hopeless coalition option.

 

Nothing particularly wrong with coalitions. Tend to iron out the extremes, offer different insights. Politics is all about pleasing interest groups and making compromises anyway. Most of the democracies that are ahead of us economically operate coalition governments.

[PHILINFRANCE]

Hopefully, we get the least hopeless coalition option.

 

Nothing particularly wrong with coalitions. Tend to iron out the extremes, offer different insights. Politics is all about pleasing interest groups and making compromises anyway. Most of the democracies that are ahead of us economically operate coalition governments.

 

Agreed, but compare Italy to Germany!

[Red-Robbo]

Agreed, but compare Italy to Germany!

 

Germany had coalition government for years and years - during which time it comprehensively outstripped us economically and managed to avoid an 80s recession, whilst keeping its manufacturing industry alive.

 

You can't just use Italy as an example!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Israel is a much worse example anyway 

[PHILINFRANCE]

Germany had coalition government for years and years - during which time it comprehensively outstripped us economically and managed to avoid an 80s recession, whilst keeping its manufacturing industry alive.

 

You can't just use Italy as an example!*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Israel is a much worse example anyway 

 

I was using Italy and Germany as extremes, not examples - and I acknowledge your reference to Israel.

 

Our current coalition has, imo, done reasonably, even very, well in the circumstances, but I truly fear for the future if parties like, e.g. SNP, are able to influence power - it makes a mockery of politics.  

[screech]

OK.

 

So is it really worth voting and, if so, for which party?

 

I fear a hopeless coalition.

 

It really doesn't matter who gets in to government. Your stuck with two parties that may as well join up together and call themselves The Conslabour Party.

You have no choice as a voter, it's more of the same whoever is in.

[Red-Robbo]

I was using Italy and Germany as extremes, not examples - and I acknowledge your reference to Israel.

 

Our current coalition has, imo, done reasonably, even very, well in the circumstances, but I truly fear for the future if parties like, e.g. SNP, are able to influence power - it makes a mockery of politics.  

 

I suppose if you live in Scotland or Wales, you might think having your daily life influenced by mainly southern English Conservatives "makes a mockery of politics".

 

As you mentioned Germany, we may as well bring up the CDU - Bavaria's largest party - which is in a permanent coalition with Angela Merkel's CDP. The result, many German's argue, is extra generous federal funding of Bavarian projects.

 

C'est la vie. As I say, politics is all about serving different interest groups and making compromises. As a voter, all you can do is work out who is best likely to serve the "interest group" of you and your family.

[PHILINFRANCE]

I suppose if you live in Scotland or Wales, you might think having your daily life influenced by mainly southern English Conservatives "makes a mockery of politics". No! It is a democracy. The majority vote should rule. You or I may disagree with what the ruling party decides, but, in a democracy, we must accept it: that is the surely the whole point of a democracy! The mockery is whereby a minority (SNP if the proverbial hits) has an undue influence. 

 

As you mentioned Germany, we may as well bring up the CDU - Bavaria's largest party - which is in a permanent (recent) coalition with Angela Merkel's CDP. The result, many German's argue, is extra generous federal funding of Bavarian projects (Red. I don't think Munich needs 'generous federal funding'). I mentioned Germany simply as a comparison to Italy, i.e. two extremes in examples of coalitions, although the 'Bavarian' CDU is, of course, conservative/catholic, and will always be. It follows that other areas of Germany, particularly the East but also the industrial Ruhr/North, will be envious of the obvious Bavarian wealth - is this why the Greens are so (relatively) powerful in Germany?

C'est la vie. As I say, politics is all about serving different interest groups and making compromises. As a voter, all you can do is work out who is best likely to serve the "interest group" of you and your family.

 

I could, and would love to, write pages in response to this.

 

Bedtime calls, however, and I must take the easy option (for which I apologise) of annotating your post.

[Red-Robbo]

I could, and would love to, write pages in response to this.

 

Bedtime calls, however, and I must take the easy option (for which I apologise) of annotating your post.

 

You seem to ignore that the Conservatives are a tiny minority in Wales and Scotland. Having English policy hostage to the SNP is no different north of the border than having Scottish policy determined by a bloke from Banbury.

[PHILINFRANCE]

You seem to ignore that the Conservatives are a tiny minority in Wales and Scotland. Having English policy hostage to the SNP is no different north of the border than having Scottish policy determined by a bloke from Banbury.

 

Bedtime still beckons, but I cannot resist this last response - even though I suspect you are teasing!

 

Seriously, you cannot compare the miniscule conservative minority in Scotland/Wales to the ludicrous and frightening power the SNP has (potentially) over the UK - I stress that it is the (comparatively) small SNP that has undue power.  

[Red-Robbo]

Bedtime still beckons, but I cannot resist this last response - even though I suspect you are teasing!

 

Seriously, you cannot compare the miniscule conservative minority in Scotland/Wales to the ludicrous and frightening power the SNP has (potentially) over the UK - I stress that it is the (comparatively) small SNP that has undue power.  

 

Phil - go to bed. Mrs Phil awaits. (possibly, I don't know, I'm guessing here)

 

Re: the Scots. Let 'em go. More money for the rest of us.

 

Plus maybe we can impose border controls on inept Scottish managers 

[screech]

Actually I have found a reason to vote, if we all voted SNP we could effectively get our wish and get rid of the Scots ourselves.

[SARJ]

Actually I have found a reason to vote, if we all voted SNP we could effectively get our wish and get rid of the Scots ourselves.

 

I've always been proud to be British, but the more I speak to our Jock neighbours, the more I realise they absolutely ****ing hate us. Same with the Welsh.

 

No wonder there is a surge in English nationalism i.e. you don't see Union Jacks at England games anymore.

 

If we're really that bad, I hope they vote SNP and get their wish. It'll make them coming back crying all the sweeter.

[I have no clue]

Ironically it seems like we can only save the union by dissolving it and making a federal Great Britain and Northern Ireland with a new constitution. Follow up Manchester with their devolved NHS spending and give them a regional government.

[bucksred]

Liebour are facing wipeout in Scotland and a major kicking in the South East...looks like they will lack credibility to govern all ways up

The SNP are a joke party for a joke country....oh and English taxpayers will keep paying up for their incompetant "government"

[WessexPest]

Bedtime still beckons, but I cannot resist this last response - even though I suspect you are teasing!

 

Seriously, you cannot compare the miniscule conservative minority in Scotland/Wales to the ludicrous and frightening power the SNP has (potentially) over the UK - I stress that it is the (comparatively) small SNP that has undue power.  

 

Agree with you for a couple of reasons: representative democracy on the Westminster system is fought by constituency, not country. A UK general election doesn't have a Scottish context, just like a Scottish Parliament election does not have a Lothian or Orkney context. As long as Britishness is seen as a viable political identity (and the people of Scotland just ratified that) then the governments for which Scotland as a whole didn't vote will have political legitimacy. In the current system the parliament is voted for 100% by the people of Britain. Therefore it has legitimacy so long as "Britishness" is seen as a viable political identity.

 

The major difference of course is at least the people of Scotland have the option of voting Tory, even if many would rather stick their gonads in a wasps' nest. Obviously the same is not true of the SNP vis-a-vis the people of England (nor Wales or Northern Ireland for that matter). Not to mention that you'd have the ridiculous scenario of a party that advocates for the break up of the UK governing the UK. Any Lab/SNP coalition would be short-lived.

 

It depends on the final split of seats, but my money would be on a minority government, Labour or Tory, probably sustained by informal ad-hoc pacts, followed before too long by another GE - Feb and October 74 all over again.

 

Long term, the union is clearly doomed. What we need are leaders with the maturity to see it and work towards its amicable and mutually beneficial dissolution. I just can't see where that's coming from.

 

The only alternative is to scrap the idea of devolved powers within the currently constituted UK altogether and formalise the settlement as a full-blown federal system. But I don't think there's the stomach for it (it would need a UK-wide referendum).