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If you like a long shot and want good value, Paddypower are currently offering 90/1 on Flint to score two or more.

 

So far this season Aden has averaged one goal in eight that City score. You could argue his recent form suggest a better ratio than that but let's stick to the season average for now. So if we score two goals against Walsall (the average in the final is that the winners score 2.25 goals) there's a one in eight chance that he'll score the first, a one in eight chance he'll score the second and therefore a one in 64 chance that he'll score both. So if you think City might score two goals, 90/1 on Flint to score twice is a good flutter.

 

If you think City might score three goals in the 90 minutes and you use form from the past 10 matches where Flint has been credited with five goals in 20 scored by City (1 in 4), then the odds of him scoring two or more go down. I'm not a bookie so I stand to be corrected on this but I think you say he has a one in 16 chance of scoring goals one and two, a one in 16 chance of scoring goals one and three and a one in 16 chance of scoring goals two and three. With your bet you don't mind what combination of goals he scores when backing "to score two or more" so you effectively back all three permutations and have a bet with a three in 16 chance; put another ways, odds of just over 5/1. So if you thought we might be up for a few goals and you felt Aden was in good goal scoring form, then a 90/1 bet for an event you felt had a 5/1 probability are handsome odds. 

 

For what it's worth, in my opinion I think the real odds are about 50/1 and I wouldn't bet on it with odds less than 50/1. So a word of caution is that this is a good value bet at 90/1 but still a long shot despite my figures in the paragraph above and therefore not the sort of bet to put a big wager on.

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Walsall are gonna be well up for this. No disrespect to them but this is mahoosive for them. They've been in league free fall since making the final, but managed a draw with sheff utd on tues...probably a sign their players upped it to try and cement a wembley starting place. That's how I'm reading it anyway. Not gonna be the walk in the park that some think I reckon.

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Walsall are gonna be well up for this. No disrespect to them but this is mahoosive for them. They've been in league free fall since making the final, but managed a draw with sheff utd on tues...probably a sign their players upped it to try and cement a wembley starting place. That's how I'm reading it anyway. Not gonna be the walk in the park that some think I reckon.

It's their cup final .

They are going to give it everything and then we will win .

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Just remember the game at Walsall earlier in the season, at the time they were in the bottom 4 and they gave us plenty of problems after we scored the early goal. I remember Cotts saying after that game that the 2 teams he thought would give us the most problems this season with their style of play were Walsall and Rochdale.

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Sometimes life presents you with opportunities mate that you have to take.

I think this is a really good bet. Really good.

 

I think there is value yes. 

 

It's almost a 50/50 shot at those odds, and you wouldn't say the outcome could be decided at the toss of a coin. 

 

There is a whole days worth of action yet, and the mugs wouldn't have backed this one down so expect it'll come in to more like 1.7-.1.8 by kick off. 

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To be honest, I felt the same when we were 17/20 to win at Yeovil. I settled for a tenner though!

I've thought about it and decided not to bother. I just couldn't look the wife or daughter in the eye if I spanked a grand. I think I'm going to regret it though...

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