Harry Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 The way I see it is this : Home games remaining (11) : Preston (15), Middlesbro (1), Birmingham (8), Ipswich (6), Brighton (4), Cardiff (9), Bolton (24), Rotherham (21), Sheff Weds (7), Derby (2), Huddersfield (18). Average League Position 10th. Away games remaining (10) : Leeds (13), Charlton (23), MK (20), Forest (14), Wolves (11), Fulham (19), Hull (3), Brentford (10), Blackburn (17), QPR (16). Average League Position 15th. On paper, our home games are tougher than our away games (by 5 league placings on average – that’s a lot!) We’ve got 7 of the top 9 to play at home (and 4 of the top 6)! If we’re looking at, let’s say, 47 points to stay up, then we need another 26 at present. If we fail beat Preston, Bolton, Rotherham & Huddersfield at home, then we leave ourselves a very tall order. Even with 12 points against those 4 ‘easier’ home games, we’ll still need 14 more points. None of those away games are easy, and 5 of them are at grounds we’ve historically not done very well at. We might get a win and a few draws (maybe 7 points from those 10 aways?) Still leaves us needing 7 more points in those 7 trickier home games. So, any points dropped against those 4 weaker teams at home, and we are in trouble. Of course, no game is a “must win” at this stage of the season, but failure to win v Preston tonight and we are up against it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'd hope we approach it as such. We've dropped too many points at home where we shouldn't have against those around us, MK Dons and Charlton particularly. I'm still very much so in the pro-SC camp but a failure to win tonight coupled with a sub-standard performance would really test that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think for you to estimate that we'll get 7 points from the 10 away games is a little low. If that happens then we will be in trouble and it puts a lot of pressure on the home results but I'd be aiming for considerably more than 7 from 10. The reality is that we need a little bit of a reverse in fortunes in the second half of the season. That and some new players. And we know that work is being done on the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob k Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 This for me is definitely a must win game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes as can't see us picking anything up on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I hate the phrase "must win" as it's so misused, but there is no question that this is exactly the sort of game we need to be winning to avoid the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 We will win tonight and Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks that way but who'd have thought we'd get 4 points from Boro and Ipswich away but only one from Charlton at home and Rotherham away? Completely agree we will stay up with 47, think we need to get far more than 7 extra points away, (so far we've collected 10) and see the 3 away games at Charlton, MK & Fulham as key. What is clear though is we can't keep on drawing at home and expect to stay up. Worried tonight about the disruption of the goalkeeper situation and a subs bench that still looks a lot like the one on the opening day, too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Gasbuster Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said: I hate the phrase "must win" as it's so misused, but there is no question that this is exactly the sort of game we need to be winning to avoid the drop. Yep. "Need to win" rather than "Must win". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 What's this word " win " ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daored Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 A game we have to look at as winning and also very winnable. Preston have adapted better than us this season, don't score many bit also don't concede many. Right now would take four points with these two home games. That for me makes it a must win game. Hopefully the result on Saturday will have lifted confidence and the impact burns made when coming on means we may be proactive tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shtanley Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 If we want to stay up comfortably then this is a must win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lew-T Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 With Boro on Saturday, I think anything else apart from a win isn't good enough. Massive game tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, daored said: A game we have to look at as winning and also very winnable. Preston have adapted better than us this season, don't score many bit also don't concede many. Right now would take four points with these two home games. That for me makes it a must win game. Hopefully the result on Saturday will have lifted confidence and the impact burns made when coming on means we may be proactive tonight In fairness we'd been working on the ' not scoring many ' front we just blew it on Saturday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 more of a must not lose rather than a must win. Short term though tonight is important as boro will be tougher to beat Saturday and we really need to kick on and start picking points up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Dawe Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Incrementally, the task of staying up becomes harder and less likely with each game lost or drawn, until we finally, mathematically, reach the first "must win" game. If we don't beat Preston at home, we are left with games against Boro, Derby and Brighton, amongst others, to look for home wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lack of Action Man Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 14 minutes ago, Major Isewater said: What's this word " win " ? I believe its what happens when you take a dump, but discover your arse to be one wipe clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Dawe Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 "Must win" games come after Christmas, not before. I think we can agree on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelts Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Football is very unpredictable. I'm going for City to win our next three home game. COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS4 on Tour... Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 41 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said: "Must win" games come after Christmas, not before. I think we can agree on this. So you think tonight's game is a 'must win' one then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Dawe Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just now, BS4 on Tour... said: So you think tonight's game is a 'must win' one then? I do. But not in a "mathematical" sense. Just in a "footballing" one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Orns Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Defo a must win. Just looked at the table, when the hell did Preston get 10 points in front of us!? I've not glanced higher than 5th from bottom for a while, now they are well clear We're in a struggle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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