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How many points for safety?


BlowerBCFC

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Just wondering how many points people think we will need in total to stay up? I believe that it will be around the 45-48 mark. Slightly lower than previous seasons and meaning we need slightly more than a point a game! Wins against Charlton and MK Dons will help just can't afford to lose them two games and lose ground on them!

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I can't see any team in the bottom 5 picking up enough points to finish over 45.

I'd go slightly lower and say 41 will be enough.

Just for fun, here's the final bottom 3:

22 Mk Dons        40 pts

23 Rotherham     38 pts

24 Bolton            31 pts

We'll finish 20th place - with 43 points.

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At least 1 more than Charlton, Bolton and Rotherham/MK.

Every one of those teams is down with us points wise so they'll need just as many to reach 50. It seems unlikely. I reckon low 40s will get it done but doesn't mean we shouldn't aim higher. 5 wins and 3 draws might just do it and considering we play every club around us again, it is doable. We have to pick up most of the points against those teams. 

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3 hours ago, BlowerBCFC said:

Just wondering how many points people think we will need in total to stay up? I believe that it will be around the 45-48 mark. Slightly lower than previous seasons and meaning we need slightly more than a point a game! Wins against Charlton and MK Dons will help just can't afford to lose them two games and lose ground on them!

Think you may be right.I'm feeling that 45 may be enough this year.very important to perform in the remaining games with those around us.psychologically would be a huge boost to do well in those key games and would be the springboard to safety.if we maintain the record under JP as far-4 points from 3games,here on in we should be fine.seem to be much harder to beat now,hurrah to that!!

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Last 5 seasons ignoring goal difference we would stay up with

42

45

55 (2 teams relegated with 54 and 51 points)

41

43

So a range of 17 to 21 should see us OK (ignoring the 55 point total)

1 point a game gets us 42, last three games we've averaged  1.3.

Small sample I know, but we are on schedule to get 47.

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It's not just how many points we get, but who from. We haven't beaten any of our nearest rivals yet. It 's all very well beating Middlesbrough but its better to beat Charlton and MK, as we should have done.  If we had hung on in those two games we would have been 19th and 4 points clear of the bottom 3.

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