Mini-league of four?

[...]

Looking at todays league table, it seems to be one from four for the final relegation spot.

Charlton and Bolton are gone IMHO.

I can't see Rotherham catching Huddersfield either.

 

 

Fulham and City on 37 points.

Maynard Dons on 35

Colins Rotherham on 32.

 

I recon Colin needs to get 5 or 6 more wins to keep them up. We need 3 or 4 more wins.

50 points should do it easily this year, as the bottom six teams are utter shite.

 

Uncle TFR

 

[...]

P.S. **** Colin.

[Son of Fred]

7 minutes ago, Taxi for Rennie said:

Looking at todays league table, it seems to be one from four for the final relegation spot.

Charlton and Bolton are gone IMHO.

I can't see Rotherham catching Huddersfield either.

 

 

Fulham and City on 37 points.

Maynard Dons on 35

Colins Rotherham on 32.

 

I recon Colin needs to get 5 or 6 more wins to keep them up. We need 3 or 4 more wins.

50 points should do it easily this year, as the bottom six teams are utter shite.

 

Uncle TFR

 

Yep,league of four,bottem gets it..........I feel 48points should well do it-with Bolton and Rotherham still to play at home we will only have ourselves to blame if its us.......

[samo II]

Huddersfield are far from safe.

They still have to play three of the current top six, visit both Rotherham and ourselves, and have a West Yorkshire derby away to Leeds too.

Think everyone above them is probably pretty much okay, unless someone experiences a clamorous collapse, but Huddersfield will need a few more points before they as safe, in my eyes.

Couple be below on level on points with us after Tuesdy's games, and don't think any of us would be saying we're safe were that the case.

[HoldenBall]

15 minutes ago, samo II said:

Huddersfield are far from safe.

They still have to play three of the current top six, visit both Rotherham and ourselves, and have a West Yorkshire derby away to Leeds too.

Think everyone above them is probably pretty much okay, unless someone experiences a clamorous collapse, but Huddersfield will need a few more points before they as safe, in my eyes.

Couple be below on level on points with us after Tuesdy's games, and don't think any of us would be saying we're safe were that the case.

Brentford are dropping like a stone, Wolves fans are still worried despite being 11 points from the bottom 3.

 

4 wins should keep us safe. Maybe even 3 and a few draws.

[samo II]

1 minute ago, Iron Man said:

Brentford are dropping like a stone, Wolves fans are still worried despite being 11 points from the bottom 3.

 

4 wins should keep us safe. Maybe even 3 and a few draws.

I'm of a mind that with 33 points still to play for there are still a good few team who can't go on their holidays yet.

One key factor for me will be how Rotherham fare this month; they've picked up two decent wins against one midtable and one playoff chasing team, but will have to maintain that form against similar or better placed teams, stating with Middlesborough tomorrow.

We are lucky enough to have games against sides around or below us in the shape of Wolves, Fulham and Bolton, so on paper at least it looks as if we should have an 'easier' set of matches.

Of course; the game is played on grass not paper, and personally I'd be delighted with 2-3 points from the next pair of games.  Beating Bolton is essential, and with Fulham facing Burnley tomorrow it would be excellent to go there at the weekend knowing a draw might keep us above them, but all things considered; it is harder to see Rotherham getting more points from the rest of March than ourselves, and after that they'll have consecutive away games against us and MK Dons, so as long as we can keep ourselves out of their reach, we can keep our fate in our own hands.

[Super]

41 minutes ago, Iron Man said:

Brentford are dropping like a stone, Wolves fans are still worried despite being 11 points from the bottom 3.

 

4 wins should keep us safe. Maybe even 3 and a few draws.

they are both on 43 you have to think they will both get one more win despite being on poor runs.

[ashton_fan]

51 minutes ago, samo II said:

I'm of a mind that with 33 points still to play for there are still a good few team who can't go on their holidays yet.

One key factor for me will be how Rotherham fare this month; they've picked up two decent wins against one midtable and one playoff chasing team, but will have to maintain that form against similar or better placed teams, stating with Middlesborough tomorrow.

We are lucky enough to have games against sides around or below us in the shape of Wolves, Fulham and Bolton, so on paper at least it looks as if we should have an 'easier' set of matches.

Of course; the game is played on grass not paper, and personally I'd be delighted with 2-3 points from the next pair of games.  Beating Bolton is essential, and with Fulham facing Burnley tomorrow it would be excellent to go there at the weekend knowing a draw might keep us above them, but all things considered; it is harder to see Rotherham getting more points from the rest of March than ourselves, and after that they'll have consecutive away games against us and MK Dons, so as long as we can keep ourselves out of their reach, we can keep our fate in our own hands.

On paper it looks as if we've got the easier games but Wolves and Fulham away have both been bogey matches historically, I can't remember the last time we won at either. I used to go to Fulham away regularly and even when we've had a good side (eg last time it was the John Ward promotion team) and they've been near the bottom we've still lost! Also if Rotherham can win at Wednesday they can potentially beat anyone. I'd be happy with 2 draws then we've got to beat Bolton.

[samo II]

4 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

On paper it looks as if we've got the easier games but Wolves and Fulham away have both been bogey matches historically, I can't remember the last time we won at either. I used to go to Fulham away regularly and even when we've had a good side (eg last time it was the John Ward promotion team) and they've been near the bottom we've still lost! Also if Rotherham can win at Wednesday they can potentially beat anyone. I'd be happy with 2 draws then we've got to beat Bolton.

I'd not argue with two draws before having Bolton at home.  I think that would likely keep us at least 3 points clear of the drop going into April, and though it'll be tense, still having Rotherham to come to the Gate would hopefully keep us in the driving seat.

The only thing I think about the Wolves and Fulham games are that neither are in good form; Wolves are actually rock bottom of the form table across the last eight games.  

For me; if we are going to stay up, these are exactly the matches we have to go into and aim to win.  Wolves are absolutely decimated by injuries at the moment, so even missing a key player like Smith, we have to take the game to them.

Even a subsistent loss to Fulham wouldn't then be such a massive issue; winning every second game while losing the others over the next ten would give us 52 points going into the final game, and I'm pretty convinced that would keep us up comfortably.

I'm not sure we'll win as many as five in the run in, but tomorrow night presents us with a chance to get us to 40 points, which is a total I simply cannot see either Charlton or Bolton reaching, which would be a massive, massive boost.

[ashton_fan]

7 minutes ago, samo II said:

I'd not argue with two draws before having Bolton at home.  I think that would likely keep us at least 3 points clear of the drop going into April, and though it'll be tense, still having Rotherham to come to the Gate would hopefully keep us in the driving seat.

The only thing I think about the Wolves and Fulham games are that neither are in good form; Wolves are actually rock bottom of the form table across the last eight games.  

For me; if we are going to stay up, these are exactly the matches we have to go into and aim to win.  Wolves are absolutely decimated by injuries at the moment, so even missing a key player like Smith, we have to take the game to them.

Even a subsistent loss to Fulham wouldn't then be such a massive issue; winning every second game while losing the others over the next ten would give us 52 points going into the final game, and I'm pretty convinced that would keep us up comfortably.

I'm not sure we'll win as many as five in the run in, but tomorrow night presents us with a chance to get us to 40 points, which is a total I simply cannot see either Charlton or Bolton reaching, which would be a massive, massive boost.

Wolves may be on a poor run but they beat Derby in their last home game, I think it will be far from easy.

[samo II]

11 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

Wolves may be on a poor run but they beat Derby in their last home game, I think it will be far from easy.

Not saying it will be easy, but they have eight first team players out with injury, including having lost one of their first choice centre backs after Friday, and that win against Derby is their only victory in nine.  

Plus; their home form is on a par with ours, having only won three more points at their place than we have at the Gate.

What I'm saying is that unlike Cardiff and Brighton, who we faced in the midst of decent runs, Wolves are in the doldrums, and if we can't be heading there with the objective of getting all three points, there are no games left in which we can.

[ExiledAjax]

TLDR: I think we'll be fine. I think we need another 9 points. I reckon we'll get at least a draw against Wolves.

A bit about current form

We currently have the 3rd best form over 6 games and the 8th best over 10 games.  We've managed an excellent 1.6 points per game over the past 10.  Even if we need to get a further 9 points I still think we have the games, the players, and the manager to do so.

Crucially we need at least two of the teams below us to better our ppg ratio by a considerable amount.  In order to get to 46 points from the remaining games we need to get 0.81 ppg (currently on 1.6).  MK Dons need to get 1.0 ppg (currently 1.2). Rotherham need 1.27 (1.1). Charlton need 1.64 (currently 0.8) and Bolton need 1.90 (currently 0.7).

My point is that for us to be relegated we need to have a massive drop in form plus we need two of the teams below us to have an upsurge.

If form over the past 10 games continues over the next 11 then we will cruise to 55 points (I doubt it will continue) and the bottom three will remain the same.

 

[JoeAman08]

We are in control of our destiny. Don't lose to Rotherham and Bolton, preferably wins. Get 1 or 2 wins and 3 or 4 draws and we are fine. Like it was said, the teams below us have to hit great form to most likely catch us. I think we have 11 games left. Even at 1 per game(below our current form) we are on 48 which is 5 wins and a draw in Rotherhams last 11. Asking quite a bit for them. 

Wolves 

Fulham 

Bolton 

Hull 

Rotherham 

SW 

Brentford 

Derby 

Blackburn 

Huddersfield 

QPR 

We should be able to get at least 10 points from these games. If not it'll still be close but we'll have no one to blame but us. Our little run was huge but now isn't the time to struggle. 

 

 

[Mad Cyril]

11 hours ago, Taxi for Rennie said:

P.S. **** Colin.

Just out of interest, has anyone ever seen Neil Warnock and Donald Trump in the same dug out?

No? Exactly. Same bloke innit.

[One Team In Keynsham]

9 minutes ago, Mad Cyril said:

Just out of interest, has anyone ever seen Neil Warnock and Donald Trump in the same dug out?

No? Exactly. Same bloke innit.

 

 

[...]

Huddersfield may be shite, but so is everyone else at the bottom.

The table does not lie after this many games. 

The teams at the bottom are shite - it's as simple as that. I can't see any of them going on a massive winning spree.

Shocking standard this year when less than 50 points will keep you up. Even Rotherham will need to win 1/2 thier remaining games.

It isn't going to happen.

 

Uncle TFR

[Jack Dawe]

I fear a loss tonight, and a 3 way fight to avoid 22nd, between Rotherham, MK and us.

I think Fulham have too much up front and will be okay. Can't see anyone above Fulham being involved. There are five teams at the bottom with clearly by far the poorest GD and we are the 5 poorest sides in this league. It has been thus all season and will not change now, I don't think.

I just hope Charlton don't win tonight and make it a 4 team fight to avoid 22nd and 23rd. Bolton appear to have missed their chance to stage a revival now.

I am anticipating a loss tonight so will be banking on Boro and MK to help us out. If Boro at least help us match Rotherham's result and we are still 5 points clear with one game less to play, that will be a decent night.

Sorry, not feeling terribly optimistic.