Transfer perspective

[ciderbeans]

Just want to put a scenario out there given the recent interest in flint and supposedly kodjia.

if these two were to be sold, I would stab a guess that Flint could go for around 4/5 mill and kodjia for 6/7 mill.

should this happen and we had a pot of 10-12 mill from these two, who could we realistically look at to replace these that will help us push up the league?

for me, 3 mill on Maguire should Hull go up to replace Flint. He has the experience unlike Mawson.

possibly a reduced fee transfer for tomlin of say 2 mill.

baker for 2.5 mill

matthews for 2 mill

Armstrong for 2 mill

odemwingie on a free

 

 

[...]

[CITYAREREDANDWHITE]

Matthews fee is nowhere near 2 mil

[ciderbeans]

What is Matthews fee likely to be? Only suggested that as I see that's what he's worth at least

[CITYAREREDANDWHITE]

Half it, minus 50k

[Phileas Fogg]

It's very easy to say all this but in reality it's different. A huge bid for Flint may come in on August 31st, one so big we can't turn down but without the time to secure a replacement - in the meantime Baker has moved on to another team. Timing comes into play..

Teams may pay us depending on if Kodjia scores 20 league goals or is promoted with them.. 

We have no idea what any of those players are valued at by their teams, who their replacement targets might be or whether we could afford their wages..

[Lrrr]

No way would Baker be £2.5m, I'd expect the figure to be £4m plus,  he's shown his ability at this standard and Villa will be in this league next season so to persuade them to sell expect a big offer required.

[ciderbeans]

I appreciate that and our best scenario is to get our targets in early regardless of who we sell as that puts us in a position of power. Means we're not scrabbling around for people

[Phileas Fogg]

1 minute ago, ciderbeans said:

I appreciate that and our best scenario is to get our targets in early regardless of who we sell as that puts us in a position of power. Means we're not scrabbling around for people

Problem is, traditionally, we don't do that. In league one we could as we were a big side in that league and we saw the benefits of doing that. In this league, we aren't and have to wait for bigger clubs with more money to spend to make their moves. 

[JoeAman08]

If you think we are selling Flint for 5m and getting Maguire for 3m, you are mistaken. We bid 2.5m for him as he didn't play for Hull and that's what Hull paid for him. They went down and kept him. He's in the rotation of CBs there. I imagine with his age and ability he will be going for 5-6m if they are willing to sell. 

[ciderbeans]

If hull go up, I can imagine they will use the large sums of money to buy new players to stay there. Maguire, given he's only a rotation option currently would I'm sure find himself unused. Possible he would want to stay to try his luck but by Jan he will be sold or loaned out

[Jack Dawe]

18 minutes ago, hodge said:

No way would Baker be £2.5m, I'd expect the figure to be £4m plus,  he's shown his ability at this standard and Villa will be in this league next season so to persuade them to sell expect a big offer required.

Baker's been here since Sept 1st. We've let in 53 goals in 35 league games since then. He's been booked nine times and sent off once, in 34 appearances. His one appearance for Villa this term was in the LC v L2 Notts Co. Villa conceded 3 in that game. At home. What will it cost to buy a defender that stops the other team scoring?

[Major Isewater]

We need to be clever in our recruitment , more Kodjias than Trundles .

We need to improve the quality of our U21's so they can step up.

This is the only way our club can advance .

Paying 4 million for a Centre back is bonkers.

[Jack Dawe]

4 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said:

Baker's been here since Sept 1st. We've let in 53 goals in 35 league games since then. He's been booked nine times and sent off once, in 34 appearances. His one appearance for Villa this term was in the LC v L2 Notts Co. Villa conceded 3 in that game. At home. What will it cost to buy a defender that stops the other team scoring?

In fairness to NB, we had kept Blackburn from scoring up until the point he was dismissed. Then we let two goals in, so I'm being a little unkind to him there....

[Jack Dawe]

5 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

We need to be clever in our recruitment , more Kodjias than Trundles .

We need to improve the quality of our U21's so they can step up.

This is the only way our club can advance .

Paying 4 million for a Centre back is bonkers.

Not if he stops the opposition scoring goals, Major! 

[ChippenhamRed]

I'm seeing Flint £4-5m and Baker £4m. Are we really saying two central defenders who've been a key part of one of the leakiest defences in the second tier are worth a combined £9m?

World's gone mad if true.

[Jack Dawe]

8 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

I'm seeing Flint £4-5m and Baker £4m. Are we really saying two central defenders who've been a key part of one of the leakiest defences in the second tier are worth a combined £9m?

World's gone mad if true.

Nice work if you can get it!

[Buckeyed]

1 hour ago, CITYAREREDANDWHITE said:

Matthews fee is nowhere near 2 mil

I'm not so sure - if Sunderland get relegated would they really let a player who is proven at this level go on the cheap? Especially for half the price they paid for him in the summer?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, hodge said:

No way would Baker be £2.5m, I'd expect the figure to be £4m plus,  he's shown his ability at this standard and Villa will be in this league next season so to persuade them to sell expect a big offer required.

See, I'd have said £2.5m was absolutely top whack, perhaps even generous. To be honest I think Villa's appetite for him is probably over-estimated; they have an owner desperate to sell up and leave and no manager in situ, players that are unlikely to be moving on because they are on good deals and unattractive, and Baker reportedly on over a £1m a year.

[Davefevs]

Info on here says we pay SC Angers 40% of any profit on Kodjia.

[Jack Dawe]

To be less flippant and a little fairer to NB, had the switch from the failing 352 to four at the back occurred in October or November, who knows how much better things might have been defensively?

 

With Cotts & 352 it was 46/26 goals conceded/games

Post Cotts & a back 4 it is 17/14 goals conceded/games

 

That is an improvement, clearly (although Cotts faced 7 games v top 6; post Cotts, we have played top 6 sides just 3 times). We can't only hold individual players responsible. But for the experience he has and money he is paid, I expect more and better from Baker.

Here's hoping we can defend like a £9m defence against Wednesday and Derby! 

 

[Fat Cigar]

42 minutes ago, Jack Dawe said:

Baker's been here since Sept 1st. We've let in 53 goals in 35 league games since then. He's been booked nine times and sent off once, in 34 appearances. His one appearance for Villa this term was in the LC v L2 Notts Co. Villa conceded 3 in that game. At home. What will it cost to buy a defender that stops the other team scoring?

That is a very good and often missed point. Our defence is one of the leakiest in the division. Flint and Baker may look solid and are built like brick wotsits but if you judge your defence by goals conceded, they haven't actually done a very good job. I should also say I'm still very unsure about O'Donnell. 

[EnderMB]

Flint's transfer value is based on who is asking. If a Premier League team wants him I'd edge closer to £10m than £5m.

His value is in the goals he can score. Paired with a solid partner I think Flint could become a top Championship defender, and if he knocks in 5-6 a year then he's worth the money.

If the suggested bid from Everton is to materialise I think £8m is a good price. He's shown time and time again that he can step up through the divisions, and I think in two years time he might be capable of playing Premier League football. Finally, we want to be able to keep hold of our players, and £8m is probably what it would cost to replace him in both defensive quality and goals scored.

[Lrrr]

Okay £4m may have been slightly large, however people thinking Villa would be willing to give up a player who is capable in this division and is far less costly then their current players for a small fee seems unlikely. The other part of Baker being unrealistic is that currently we're supposedly paying half of his £20k per week wages, I can't see us stumping up those sorts of wages.

[Phileas Fogg]

14 minutes ago, hodge said:

Okay £4m may have been slightly large, however people thinking Villa would be willing to give up a player who is capable in this division and is far less costly then their current players for a small fee seems unlikely. The other part of Baker being unrealistic is that currently we're supposedly paying half of his £20k per week wages, I can't see us stumping up those sorts of wages.

To compete with the likes of Brighton, (similar size club, new stadium), we are going to need to eventually.

[Lrrr]

1 minute ago, Phileas Fogg said:

To compete with the likes of Brighton, (similar size club, new stadium), we are going to need to eventually.

Unless the increased revenue from the redeveloped stadium allows us to, we'll just start running up the clubs debts again, we can't expect Lansdown to cover large amounts regularly.

[supercidered]

1 hour ago, EnderMB said:

Flint's transfer value is based on who is asking. If a Premier League team wants him I'd edge closer to £10m than £5m.

His value is in the goals he can score. Paired with a solid partner I think Flint could become a top Championship defender, and if he knocks in 5-6 a year then he's worth the money.

If the suggested bid from Everton is to materialise I think £8m is a good price. He's shown time and time again that he can step up through the divisions, and I think in two years time he might be capable of playing Premier League football. Finally, we want to be able to keep hold of our players, and £8m is probably what it would cost to replace him in both defensive quality and goals scored.

That is completely wide of the mark. Whoever is asking, 8 million is absolute bonkers. As much as I love him, nobody would pay that for him. Just an opinion mind!

[Phileas Fogg]

5 minutes ago, hodge said:

Unless the increased revenue from the redeveloped stadium allows us to, we'll just start running up the clubs debts again, we can't expect Lansdown to cover large amounts regularly.

Isn't that the idea of redeveloping the stadium? How do Brighton manage to pay Zamora, Hemed, Knockeart, Wilson etc otherwise?

[EnderMB]

1 minute ago, supercidered said:

That is completely wide of the mark. Whoever is asking, 8 million is absolute bonkers. As much as I love him, nobody would pay that for him. Just an opinion mind!

That's the whole point! Instead of selling off our first-team players for market rate, we should be slapping price tags the second any speculation arises.

Flint isn't worth £8m, but we won't replace his impact for any less. That £8m covers hiring a new defender, paying higher wages, and dampening the impact of losing the goals he'll score over the course of a season.

Why do you think Derby slapped a £15m price tag on Will Hughes? He's happy there, and they don't want him leaving for a cut price if the club don't land promotion in the short-term. It definitely worked for them because Liverpool were willing to pay £12m for him last year.

[supercidered]

1 hour ago, EnderMB said:

That's the whole point! Instead of selling off our first-team players for market rate, we should be slapping price tags the second any speculation arises.

Flint isn't worth £8m, but we won't replace his impact for any less. That £8m covers hiring a new defender, paying higher wages, and dampening the impact of losing the goals he'll score over the course of a season.

Why do you think Derby slapped a £15m price tag on Will Hughes? He's happy there, and they don't want him leaving for a cut price if the club don't land promotion in the short-term. It definitely worked for them because Liverpool were willing to pay £12m for him last year.

I get what you are saying and I think Flint is happy here. However, whatever the contract or price tag that we state. If say Everton came in with a bid of 4 million and he wanted to go, then he would go. I'd be gutted but I'm sure thats the way it would pan out. If another championship team came in for him for 4 million I reckon the situation would pan out differently.