Stay in or back of the queue you go!

[KURTZ]

Anyone think it sucked to hear our special Friend , tell us that if we decide to leave the eu, we would be at the back of the queue when it came to doing business with the usa?

So much for the special relationship. If they were truly our friends they would have said that they would be there for us no matter which way WE decide to vote.

As the Clash said Im so bored of the usa!

 

 

[howey_ducky]

I'm not sure anything he says makes any difference.  He's lost the respect of lots of America during his time in office, lots of false promises and meaningless soundbites seem to be the way he operates.  

It's quite amusing to hear him speaking about Britain and the EU.  He comes across quite the has-been.  It would be more interesting to hear Clinton or Trump share their feelings on the subject.

[richwwtk]

I'd be quite interested to hear Trump's view on Britain staying in the EU just so I can vote for the polar opposite.

[Lanterne Rouge]

29 minutes ago, howey_ducky said:

I'm not sure anything he says makes any difference.  He's lost the respect of lots of America during his time in office, lots of false promises and meaningless soundbites seem to be the way he operates.  

It's quite amusing to hear him speaking about Britain and the EU.  He comes across quite the has-been.  It would be more interesting to hear Clinton or Trump share their feelings on the subject.

He probably fancies some high powered (and high paid) EU -US liaison job after he goes, a bit like Blair. He has always come across as a bit of a Europhile for a Yank TBH.

[Calculus]

1 hour ago, KURTZ said:

Anyone think it sucked to hear our special Friend , tell us that if we decide to leave the eu, we would be at the back of the queue when it came to doing business with the usa?

So much for the special relationship. If they were truly our friends they would have said that they would be there for us no matter which way WE decide to vote.

As the Clash said Im so bored of the usa!

 

 

An unwise thing for him to say I think, but he's yesterday's man anyway so no big deal. Let's hope we're also at the back of the queue when they're looking for us to join in with their next ill-judged miitary adventure - they can always rely on the 'cheese eating surrender monkeys'.

[joe jordans teeth]

1 hour ago, KURTZ said:

Anyone think it sucked to hear our special Friend , tell us that if we decide to leave the eu, we would be at the back of the queue when it came to doing business with the usa?

So much for the special relationship. If they were truly our friends they would have said that they would be there for us no matter which way WE decide to vote.

As the Clash said Im so bored of the usa!

 

 

You only have to look at what his own country thinks of him to be honest,his word isn't worth toffee 

[howey_ducky]

37 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

He probably fancies some high powered (and high paid) EU -US liaison job after he goes, a bit like Blair. He has always come across as a bit of a Europhile for a Yank TBH.

Completely agree.  It'll be interesting if we vote out and Boris becomes PM, I doubt Obama's comments have gone down well in that camp.

[cityexile]

I am not sure what he said was terribly helpful, but he ie entitled to give a view, not from our perspective, but from a US interests perspective.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/21/news/economy/us-uk-brexit-eu-referendum-obama/

To easy as well to say he is disliked in the US, it splits 50/50 pretty much. His issue was as a centralist, he got caught by the most partisan Congress in decades, that pretty much shut down deals, to pander to the tea party agenda. Latest polls in the US are something like Obama has a 49% satisfied, 47% disatisfied rating, wheras Congress are something like 14% satisfied 77% disatisfied. 

[marshy]

I'm surprised he used the word 'queue', always thought they used the word 'line' over there. Makes one think the whole thing was scripted by Downing Street.

[joe jordans teeth]

6 minutes ago, marshy said:

I'm surprised he used the word 'queue', always thought they used the word 'line' over there. Makes one think the whole thing was scripted by Downing Street.

You are correct,it's almost like somebody wrote his speech,probably Dave and Jeremy 

[BS3_RED]

32 minutes ago, joe jordans teeth said:

You are correct,it's almost like somebody wrote his speech,probably Dave and Jeremy 

This

 

He is just giving a soundbite to help his mate Dave who will be out of a job on the 24th June if the out camp win. The bottom line is it make no difference. The in camp will win simply due to the fact that the government backs it and as such there are no details being given on what would happen if we voted to leave.

 

If the government wanted out, we would have a whole host of info on how we would be better off.

[Scrumpylegs]

Obama's comments are simply a statement of fact. If UK exits EU they will OBVIOUSLY have to wait their turn for a trade deal to be concluded. Why is this statement contentious? What else would you expect to happen? It's a fact that Brexit, economically, will have a hugely damaging effect (at least in the short to medium term). That doesn't make it the wrong thing do necessarily - but that is the way it is. What is wrong is for either side to pretend that to stay in or leave is either ALL GOOD or ALL BAD. There are advantages and disadvantages to both arguments, but let's not kid ourselves, short term economic stability is certainly not an advantage of leaving the EU!!

[northsomersetred]

Thats's fine Obama just remember to put us to the back of the queue the next time you're looking for a military partner in one of your campaigns. Look to the military might of the Germans, French and Italians.

Oh and remember the last time you went to war without us the Viet Cong handed you your arse on a plate.

[BS2 Red]

Obama went to war against the Viet Cong?

Whether you are pro or anti EU, Obama didn't say anything too outrageous imo. The UK would obviously have to renegotiate all sorts of treaties and trade deals if we left the EU. Everyone will still want to trade with us, but we are bound to take an economic hit in the short term. 

[Fiale]

2 hours ago, BS2 Red said:

Obama went to war against the Viet Cong?

Whether you are pro or anti EU, Obama didn't say anything too outrageous imo. The UK would obviously have to renegotiate all sorts of treaties and trade deals if we left the EU. Everyone will still want to trade with us, but we are bound to take an economic hit in the short term. 

Not sure why this is the case - if we have trade agreements even if through the EU, we simple say we will honour them until other arrangements are made - then offer to exchange free trade agreements with anyone who wants it. We do a shit load of trade and investment with the US and them with us (more so than any other European country) and the EU does not even have a trade agreement with the US. In fact the one that is in negotiation is said to be basically a open invitation for US corporations to smash into anything ran by the state or with state assistance like the French power companies, our NHS etc it could be the biggest threat to the NHS we have ever seen, but it will probably go through because the EU as a trading bloc is in decline and Brussels are desperate to do just about anything to try to stop the rot.

[LondonBristolian]

3 hours ago, Scrumpylegs said:

Obama's comments are simply a statement of fact. If UK exits EU they will OBVIOUSLY have to wait their turn for a trade deal to be concluded. Why is this statement contentious? What else would you expect to happen? It's a fact that Brexit, economically, will have a hugely damaging effect (at least in the short to medium term). That doesn't make it the wrong thing do necessarily - but that is the way it is. What is wrong is for either side to pretend that to stay in or leave is either ALL GOOD or ALL BAD. There are advantages and disadvantages to both arguments, but let's not kid ourselves, short term economic stability is certainly not an advantage of leaving the EU!!

 

Indeed.  I respect that some people feel self-determination and the right to choose our own government and laws, free of EU influence, should trump all other considerations.  What I cannot respect is people sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring basic statements of fact. The EU has a GDP of £16.2 million.  The UK has a GDP of £2.8 million.  Even if you take the UK out the EU, the EU will have a market over 4.5 times the size of ours.  The US is in the middle of negotiations for a trade deal with the EU who, by their own admission is one of the trickiest deals to make because it's the only deal they have where they are negotiating against an economy in a position of parity to theirs.

The idea that the US will give priority to a trade deal with a country over 6 times smaller than them is absolutely ludicrous.  Anyone who thinks this is Obama's view alone is kidding themselves - it's basic economic sense.  Similarly the idea that, if we leave the EU, we'll be able to renegotiate deals with the EU, which has a GDP 4.5 x larger than ours from any kind of position of strength is kidding themselves.  The EU can cope without dealing with the UK far more than we can cope without a market that takes 44% of our exports.  There's nothing contentious in that - it's a basic economic fact.

As I say - I can respect anyone who thinks self-determination should trump all (obviously as long as they also believed the Scots should have gone for independence last year on the same principal).  And I can certainly respect anyone who thinks we should not be ceding power to a fundamentally undemocratic institution.  And I can respect, although not agree with, anyone who believes the economic disadvantages of leaving the EU are a price worth paying for that.  What I cannot respect at all is people pretending the economic disadvantages do not exist.  Yes, the pro-EU campaign has been negative and based on fear.  But its assertions our fundamentally and unequivocally correct.  Countries like the US are not going to mess around making piecemeal deals with individual countries when there are far bigger fish to fry across the channel.  Countries within the EU are not going to come begging to make trade deals with us and are far more likely to be inclined to make an example of us to stop other countries from leaving.  And countries like the US are less likely to see us a diplomatic priority if we isolate ourselves and reduce our global influence.

There are many pro-Leave campaigners I respect (I saw Tim Martin of Wetherspoons being interviewed the other day and he came across absolutely brilliantly) but there are certain anti-EU voters who remind me of that work colleague or person in our friendship group that we've all had at one time or other who spends their entire time moaning about how unappreciated they are and threatening not to stick around completely oblivious to the fact that nobody really cares, everyone else is a bit puzzled about the fuss they're making and everyone can see how they need the job or friends far more than the job or friends need them and the world will continue without them regardless.

[LondonBristolian]

14 minutes ago, Fiale said:

Not sure why this is the case - if we have trade agreements even if through the EU, we simple say we will honour them until other arrangements are made - then offer to exchange free trade agreements with anyone who wants it. We do a shit load of trade and investment with the US and them with us (more so than any other European country) and the EU does not even have a trade agreement with the US. In fact the one that is in negotiation is said to be basically a open invitation for US corporations to smash into anything ran by the state or with state assistance like the French power companies, our NHS etc it could be the biggest threat to the NHS we have ever seen, but it will probably go through because the EU as a trading bloc is in decline and Brussels are desperate to do just about anything to try to stop the rot.

Is this really how trade agreements work?  Sounds a bit simplistic.  And surely saying "If we have trade agreements through the EU, we simply say we will honour them" is a bit like saying "If I quit my job I'll carry on working with the same clients as before".  Brilliant in theory but one assumes there would be non-compete clauses in contracts limiting your ability to do so.  If memory serves, and I'm not too sure on this, I understand the terms of leaving the EU are that all the other countries decide on the exit terms and how any trade deals work in the interim until new deals are made and we have no say on that whatsoever.  We either accept it or have no trade deals at all. 

 

Similarly the EU and the US both share neo-liberal ambitions (as does the current UK administration) which involve power being handed to corporate interests and away from governments.  That probably is what the trade deal will involve but that's because that's what both sides want - not because the EU is in decline as a trading bloc.  US aside, it's comfortably the biggest trading bloc in the world. 

[The Batman]

Short answer.

Obama won't be president next year and can never be president again. If brexit happens, it takes 2/3 years to negotiate out.

The next president of the USA could say Britain comes to the front of the line. 

Therefore, he can have his opinion, but he cannot dictate what will happen as it won't be up to him.

[LondonBristolian]

1 hour ago, The Batman said:

 It Short answer.

Obama won't be president next year and can never be president again. If brexit happens, it takes 2/3 years to negotiate out.

The next president of the USA could say Britain comes to the front of the line. 

Therefore, he can have his opinion, but he cannot dictate what will happen as it won't be up to him.

The next president of the USA could say that. But they won't as it makes absolutely zero business sense to do so. It's in the USA's interests to deal with the biggest and most important trading partners as a priority. Those are the ones with the biggest GDP and that is the EU and not us (if we leave) by a significant distance. The only logical thing for the US to do is so a deal with the EU as a priority and then only get round to us once that is sorted.

 

What's more, if the US does a deal with an independent UK, it will be on their terms and we'll have to accept them. Their economy is seven times bigger than ours and they'll hold all the cards in any negotiation. 

 

It it makes no difference who the president is. No president is going to do us a favour against America's own interests but anyone who thinks otherwise is simply denying reality. It's fine to be for or against leaving the EU but it's ridiculous to pretend that what Obama has said is anything other than a simple statement of self-evident fact.

[screech]

12 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

The next president of the USA could say that. But they won't as it makes absolutely zero business sense to do so. It's in the USA's interests to deal with the biggest and most important trading partners as a priority. Those are the ones with the biggest GDP and that is the EU and not us (if we leave) by a significant distance. The only logical thing for the US to do is so a deal with the EU as a priority and then only get round to us once that is sorted.

 

What's more, if the US does a deal with an independent UK, it will be on their terms and we'll have to accept them. Their economy is seven times bigger than ours and they'll hold all the cards in any negotiation. 

 

It it makes no difference who the president is. No president is going to do us a favour against America's own interests but anyone who thinks otherwise is simply denying reality. It's fine to be for or against leaving the EU but it's ridiculous to pretend that what Obama has said is anything other than a simple statement of self-evident fact.

Sorry I'll have to bring you up on this, your logic makes no sense at all. You talk about zero business sense in dealing with the fifth largest economy in the world, are you seriously suggesting the fragile global markets, especially the bambi on ice market of the EU would deliberately jeopardise the next 5-10 years of the worlds markets by leaving us out in the cold, that is utter rubbish. I'm afraid the scaremongering is bordering on psychotic. They will absolutely have to get things sorted over the two years, because the EU markets are ready to tip over again, Cameron played the hand of a Prime Minister who had showed his cards before he got to the table, an utterly pathetic weak man who I wouldn't trust to run a bath. All I have seen so far from the remain is a talking down negative approach of how significant we are in the world, it's that attitude that really gets my goat, we may not be the powerhouse we once were, but we still have plenty of clout around the world, but you would never think it with Clegg, Ashdown, Cameron and Gideon running their campaign.

[Fiale]

3 hours ago, LondonBristolian said:

Is this really how trade agreements work?  Sounds a bit simplistic.  And surely saying "If we have trade agreements through the EU, we simply say we will honour them" is a bit like saying "If I quit my job I'll carry on working with the same clients as before".  Brilliant in theory but one assumes there would be non-compete clauses in contracts limiting your ability to do so.  If memory serves, and I'm not too sure on this, I understand the terms of leaving the EU are that all the other countries decide on the exit terms and how any trade deals work in the interim until new deals are made and we have no say on that whatsoever.  We either accept it or have no trade deals at all. 

 

Similarly the EU and the US both share neo-liberal ambitions (as does the current UK administration) which involve power being handed to corporate interests and away from governments.  That probably is what the trade deal will involve but that's because that's what both sides want - not because the EU is in decline as a trading bloc.  US aside, it's comfortably the biggest trading bloc in the world. 

They work in the same way laws do, you are bound by them as long as you are part of that constituent that has signed up to them, in this case the UK signing upto EU trade regulations/rules. If we left it would be no different than when countries declared independence from Britain. Most kept are rules, regulations, laws, court system and gradual changed, deleted, altered, replaced, amended what they wanted as they needed. If we want to trade with a country that wants to trade with us, and we spend millions/billions on each others goods as long as they are happy to trade with us as business as usual, there would be no problem. Changes could come further down the line, but there is no reason to suddenly say "sorry world we left the EU - we can't sell anything to anyone now... sorry, shops closed"

[Scrumpylegs]

Another issue that hasn't really been picked up yet is the status of the U.K Itself following a Brexit vote. This could really complicate any post Brexit negotiation and potentially deliver a 'double whammy' to the UK economy. The Scots are looking nailed on for a majority 'remain' vote. They would quite rightly see a Brexit vote as a fundamental change to the conditions on which they voted to stay in the UK. This would trigger another independence referendum - which the nationalists would win by a Country mile, thus leaving the remnants of the U.K. surrounded and isolated, not a strong position for trade deals!

[LondonBristolian]

20 minutes ago, screech said:

Sorry I'll have to bring you up on this, your logic makes no sense at all. You talk about zero business sense in dealing with the fifth largest economy in the world, are you seriously suggesting the fragile global markets, especially the bambi on ice market of the EU would deliberately jeopardise the next 5-10 years of the worlds markets by leaving us out in the cold, that is utter rubbish. I'm afraid the scaremongering is bordering on psychotic. They will absolutely have to get things sorted over the two years, because the EU markets are ready to tip over again, Cameron played the hand of a Prime Minister who had showed his cards before he got to the table, an utterly pathetic weak man who I wouldn't trust to run a bath. All I have seen so far from the remain is a talking down negative approach of how significant we are in the world, it's that attitude that really gets my goat, we may not be the powerhouse we once were, but we still have plenty of clout around the world, but you would never think it with Clegg, Ashdown, Cameron and Gideon running their campaign.

You seem to have misunderstood what Obama has said. And indeed what I've said too. Nobody has at any point said there is zero business sense dealing with the sixth biggest economy in the world but there is zero business sense in prioritising it over dealing with the second biggest. And the scaremongering of the remain campaign is more than balanced out by your over-zealous doom-mongering over the eu's economic prospects. Bambi on ice or not, one thing you can guarantee is in five or ten years its combined economy will still be several times larger than ours and if we leave we'll still be dealing with it and the us from a position of comparative weakness. That isn't scaremongering - it's reality.

[Scrumpylegs]

There has been a widely held assumption that the EU would quickly strike a trade deal because it would be in their best interests to do so as they export more to the UK than they import. Whilst in theory a trade deal would seem to make sense, we have to consider what the EU would view their 'best interests' to be following a Brexit. 

In these circumstances the number one priority would be to ensure the stability of the bloc and this, I have little doubt, would override any consideration of trade with the U.K.

Sadly, for us at least, the best way to deter others from leaving would be to demonstrate the dire economic and political consequences. In short, their interests would be best served by the failure of an independent UK. Any re-negotiation of trade terms would be heavily loaded against us.

 

[Up The City!]

It's all scare tactics Tbh. Everything will be fine. Countries will still want to trade with us.

[The Batman]

Ultimately, if Obama was newly elected in his first term, I'd pay a lot more attention to his view.

But Britain trades more with the USA than Spain, Italy and France combined (as per news a min ago)

Also, the Dutch referenda pissed me off. They voted no on a deal with Ukraine but they went and did it anyway. That should be alarming to everyone that the people didn't want something but the EU did it anyway.

[LondonBristolian]

8 hours ago, Just Red said:

It's all scare tactics Tbh. Everything will be fine. Countries will still want to trade with us.

There are still questions as to what terms they trade and how favourable they are. Cd anyone who assumes "everything will be fine" without property researching say 

[Up The City!]

38 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

There are still questions as to what terms they trade and how favourable they are. Cd anyone who assumes "everything will be fine" without property researching say 

Anyone who does research is going to read stuff intended to put fear into people about leaving the EU. It's all rubbish. We was a great country before the EU, we are a poor country whilst in the EU, we can be great again by leaving.

There may be a very short term hit but when the dust settles this country will be able to proper.

[BCFC Jimmer]

22 minutes ago, Just Red said:

Anyone who does research is going to read stuff intended to put fear into people about leaving the EU. It's all rubbish. We was a great country before the EU, we are a poor country whilst in the EU, we can be great again by leaving.

There may be a very short term hit but when the dust settles this country will be able to proper.

Oh really? So where is all this economic growth that you are promising going to come from?

We don't really have any natural resources, manufacturing, science and other industries left.

Things are different these days, we apart of a globalised economy which means we rely on international trade deals.

Whilst I have 1 or 2 gripes with the EU - mainly the threat to our democracy - leaving now would be a huge leap of faith.

I think another huge disadvantage of leaving is that we risk losing more workers rights and less power in our trade unions.  We would essentially be giving the tories more power to dismantle our public services.

Vote in.

 

 

[Fiale]

1 hour ago, LondonBristolian said:

There are still questions as to what terms they trade and how favourable they are. Cd anyone who assumes "everything will be fine" without property researching say 

 

46 minutes ago, Collis1 said:

Oh really? So where is all this economic growth that you are promising going to come from?

We don't really have any natural resources, manufacturing, science and other industries left.

Things are different these days, we apart of a globalised economy which means we rely on international trade deals.

Whilst I have 1 or 2 gripes with the EU - mainly the threat to our democracy - leaving now would be a huge leap of faith.

I think another huge disadvantage of leaving is that we risk losing more workers rights and less power in our trade unions.  We would essentially be giving the tories more power to dismantle our public services.

Vote in.

 

 

 

Neither we or the EU have trade deals with the US but we both still trade with them. 

 

We still have a large manufacturing base, and our science and Pharma industry is still huge (though Pharma has taken a huge hit due to new EU regulations that have reduced the amount the companies are putting into research and development of new drugs). Leaving would not be a leap of faith, we are not children, when the hell did Brits become such cowards that they cannot even perceive running their own country without the help of the Polish, Romanians, Greeks, Slovakians and Germans etc ?