Last 2 games: a lot still to learn

[Fat Cigar]

A definite bump back to earth this last week. I wasn’t at Cardiff or QPR (I did listen to both) so can I only go on the comments from those who were there and the radio commentary. Before the Cardiff game, I’d earmarked October as a key month in seeing what level we’re actually at. And whether the play-offs are realistic. From Cardiff and QPR away, Blackburn at home and then Barnsley away, 6 points would tell me we can compete for the top 8. 4 would be the minimum I’d expect for a top 10 finish. Anything less and I’d start to get concerned. Not fighting relegation concerned (we won’t be), but more of a we’re a top 15 side at best. Which is pretty disappointing after the early promise. 

The problem these last two games seems to be how few chances we’ve created. And I’d put Cardiff and QPR in the distinctly mediocre category. Having said that, they were two of our most predictable defeats. As soon as Warnock took charge of Cardiff, I felt that was a narrow defeat on the cards. And our record at QPR is rotten.

There are definitely a few things we need to work on, two more than most.

First: we have got to stop conceding the first goal. We’ve done that in 9 of our 13 league games. We’ve only gone to win in 3 of those matches. Playing catch up is exhausting and will only sap players’ energy. There’s only so many times we’re going to get out of jail with last minute winners or equalisers. And we’ve probably used up our good luck for a while now.

Second: this chopping and changing our midfield isn’t helping. Pack comes out, Reid comes in, Paterson out,  O’Dowda in etc. Need a settled 11. Or close to it.

I don’t think Bryan is best as a natural left-back and I don't think he or even Johnson thinks so.  I'd much prefer to see Golbourne there. Bryan’s best performances this and towards the end of last season have come in midfield.

I’m dying to see what a combination of O’Neil and Smith will do for the side. We have a lot of promising young players, but a few wise old heads are needed. Not that Korey’s that old. I’m unconvinced by O’Dowda. Is he any better than Freeman? As others have noted, and as I’ve seen several times already, he fades quickly. A lot of fizz and sparkle but not much comes from it. Again, he’s a very young lad who was playing League Two football last season. It takes two or three full seasons to come to terms with the pace and physicality of the Championship. Some learn and adapt, others never do and drop back down a level.

Very pleased to hear Matthews had a good game. Sounded like it. A midfield of O’Neil, Smith, Pack, Paterson or Bryan, with Tomlin sitting behind Tammy would be my preference. With Pack, O'Neil, Smith and Tomlin, that's plenty of experience.

Even though we had a terrific summer, we’re still pretty light up top. Tammy’s not going to play every game. You know what you’re getting with Wilbs, and goals isn’t it! He’s the guy that uses his strength to hold the ball up and lay it off. But, having him as our second striker is a big problem. Engvall will play at some point and we have no idea how good he is.

I also think a new goalkeeper should be a priority (aside from the two new strikers)  in January.  (By the way, I can't see us signing a  main striker until the summer. Rarely available in January) Yes, Fielding and O’Donnell pull off some excellent saves, as you’d expect from any keeper. But neither inspires confidence, neither catches the ball properly, and both prone to expensive lapses of judgement. You want the play-offs (or more), you need a top class keeper. Neither are anywhere near top class.

The two main issues mentioned above need to be sorted fast if we want the security of mid-table, or more. Ignore the fact we’re currently 6^th . All it takes in this division is 2 or 3 matches and you very quickly slide up (or down) the table.

The nice intricate passing game LJ likes is a little too predictable. We need to work on being ruthless and clinical. High-tempo passing is surely more effective. 5, 6 passes, then shoot. 20 passes where you’re going nowhere is what we witnessed far too many times last season. Most teams will happily sit back and hit you on the break. What's worried me is that Cardiff and QPR defeats do feel a bit like last season.

Hopefully the last two games have taught LJ something more than anyone else. And I really hope we start to see a settled XI.

A positive: we've only lost our 5 games by single goals. Which is an improvement from last season's 4-0 thrashings. 

[Fat Cigar]

Glad to see LJ recognises this:

"We just need to get a side that can scrap as well, because we need to be able to win a game in different ways."
 

[Major Isewater]

36 minutes ago, Fat Cigar said:

Glad to see LJ recognises this:

"We just need to get a side that can scrap as well, because we need to be able to win a game in different ways."
 

And yet , I believe we have scrapped.

Last night , we hung in there under immense pressure from the home side .

We have already won ' ugly ' .

We have battled back from being down as well .

I don't think there's a lot wrong with the squad as I've said on another thread , we could have notched 3 or 4 goals last night then we are n't having inquests but dreaming of the Prem .

The margins are gossamer fine in this League .

[Fat Cigar]

10 minutes ago, Major Isewater said:

And yet , I believe we have scrapped.

Last night , we hung in there under immense pressure from the home side .

We have already won ' ugly ' .

We have battled back from being down as well .

I don't think there's a lot wrong with the squad as I've said on another thread , we could have notched 3 or 4 goals last night then we are n't having inquests but dreaming of the Prem .

The margins are gossamer fine in this League .

True, but we need to continue to scrap. A team playing a fluent passing game is easy to contain at this level. And oppositions know we'll give the ball away at some point. The win at home to Leeds was a good scrappy, hard-fought win. For now, I'd settle for us to sit anywhere between 8th and 13th. And, when the team is more settled, and youngsters have fully bedded in, make a charge for the top 8 in the final 10-15 games. You know that the gap between 7th and 15th will be the difference of two-three wins. 

[054123]

For me it just confirms where we are as a club.

We are good enough to stay up and there it ends. I had no confidence what so ever in us getting any points from night games away at QPR and Cardiff.

Until this sentiment changes we just need to focus on accumulating the 60 points we need to stay up securely.

[LondonBristolian]

I think the other things we need to say is we've lost two in a row and are still in the top six.  This means two things:

1) We still have a great platform to build from if we win Saturday.

2) The sides around us aren't exactly  winning every game either.

The nature of the Championship is that anyone can beat anyone on their day.  We'll have short runs of wins and short runs of losses and it's important not to get carried away at either end of the scale.  Realistically I don't expect we'll finish in the top six but that was always way beyond my expectations anyway.  I do think we're a decent side and we'll be winning games again soon enough. 

[Cowshed]

"A team playing a fluent passing game is easy to contain at this level",

Fluent passing is not easy to contain. City as a project are not that fluent passing team. It is clear that is the path Mr Johnson is pursuing and has recruited players with genuine skill to play in the last third through the centre, across the pitch and down the flank/ flanks who won't just pass and pass again.Seeing progressive attractive football at Ashton Gate is something to be enthusiastic about.

[Meh]

I text my mater after the game - try to avoid comnig on here as you can say silly things in heat of moment.

My comment was why are we seeing 4 changes every game and not just 1 or 2 at most which are either enforced or bringing back a recognised starter when available e.g. Matthews, Tomlim etc.

Lee does not seem to know his best starting team or formation which by this point, I would suggest he should?

Certainly not going to join any sort of bashing LJ rubbish - we are lucky to have him but I would just like to see less changing for a few games and let a natural first choice XI form out of that.

I am worried there maybe too much trying to keep everybody happy with the abundance of midfielders but it is not helping perofrmances on the pitch.

BTW, it took us 25 minutes of the second half last night to increase from 1 shot on target and 3 off target at half-time to 1 on target and 4 off - that is not good enough !!

[Fat Cigar]

30 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I think the other things we need to say is we've lost two in a row and are still in the top six.  This means two things:

1) We still have a great platform to build from if we win Saturday.

2) The sides around us aren't exactly  winning every game either.

The nature of the Championship is that anyone can beat anyone on their day.  We'll have short runs of wins and short runs of losses and it's important not to get carried away at either end of the scale.  Realistically I don't expect we'll finish in the top six but that was always way beyond my expectations anyway.  I do think we're a decent side and we'll be winning games again soon enough. 

Agreed. I guess I find it dispiriting losing to average sides. But then again, we're hardly promotion contenders. Interestingly, if you look at the table after 13 games last season, it's amazing how many sides are in very similar positions and on similar points: Wolves, QPR, Birmingham, Ipswich. All top 8-12 type sides, and they've barely budged. Big gap between the top two (who I expect to stay there for most of the season) and then likes of Brighton and Sheff Wed, and then a group of about 12 who all fancy challenging for the play-offs. The division's insane!

[Fat Cigar]

2 minutes ago, Neo said:

I text my mater after the game - try to avoid comnig on here as you can say silly things in heat of moment.

My comment was why are we seeing 4 changes every game and not just 1 or 2 at most which are either enforced or bringing back a recognised starter when available e.g. Matthews, Tomlim etc.

Lee does not seem to know his best starting team or formation which by this point, I would suggest he should?

Certainly not going to join any sort of bashing LJ rubbish - we are lucky to have him but I would just like to see less changing for a few games and let a natural first choice XI form out of that.

I am worried there maybe too much trying to keep everybody happy with the abundance of midfielders but it is not helping perofrmances on the pitch.

BTW, it took us 25 minutes of the second half last night to increase from 1 shot on target and 3 off target at half-time to 1 on target and 4 off - that is not good enough !!

God no. I think 99% are on side. Just pointing out, as you have, this chopping and changing is destabilising. We only had 2 shots on target all game. And only 1 against Cardiff.

[Super]

It's a real fine line despite not playing well Bobby puts those chances away in the two games we are probably sat here with 4 more points. Not blaming him by the way. I think we all know we are short up front hopefully this will be addressed in Jan.

[GrahamC]

I think he is trying to be too smart with his team selection.

The complete opposite of Cotts who bashed away picking from the same 11 or 12 until he was sacked.

Rest and recuperation are fine and I like not overloading the same players (plus that we have genuine choices) but so is building an understanding, something evidently working with Hordur and Aden Flint.

This really applies in midfield, where there is too much chop & change.

Not hindsight, I said it before last night but we will need to give Tammy a proper rest soon as well.

[Fat Cigar]

2 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I think he is trying to be too smart with his team selection.

The complete opposite of Cotts who bashed away picking from the same 11 or 12 until he was sacked.

Rest and recuperation are fine and I like not overloading the same players (plus that we have genuine choices) but so is building an understanding, something evidently working with Hordur and Aden Flint.

This really applies in midfield, where there is too much chop & change.

Not hindsight, I said it before last night but we will need to give Tammy a proper rest soon as well.

Exactly. Tammy will have to play on Saturday as he will almost certainly be on the bench next Tuesday. 

[GrahamC]

2 minutes ago, Fat Cigar said:

Exactly. Tammy will have to play on Saturday as he will almost certainly be on the bench next Tuesday. 

Why does he? 

We (and he) could benefit from him having a total break.

Sooner or later he will have to...

[LondonBristolian]

5 minutes ago, Fat Cigar said:

Agreed. I guess I find it dispiriting losing to average sides. But then again, we're hardly promotion contenders. Interestingly, if you look at the table after 13 games last season, it's amazing how many sides are in very similar positions and on similar points: Wolves, QPR, Birmingham, Ipswich. All top 8-12 type sides, and they've barely budged. Big gap between the top two (who I expect to stay there for most of the season) and then likes of Brighton and Sheff Wed, and then a group of about 12 who all fancy challenging for the play-offs. The division's insane!

Indeed.  In a way, I think last night QPR's averageness was a problem.  I was actually watching it with a QPR supporting mate as the guy he usually goes with is in America at the moment.  I saw their game on Saturday and I did say to him (only half-jokingly) that QPR's have a skill for dragging their opponents down to their level and making them slug out scrappy games.

Based on the changes QPR made for this game, I think their manager anticipated we'd want to control possession and did their damndest to make sure nobody could control possession for long spells and it ended up in a direct game that suited them more than it did us.  And, whilst LJ has made some great subs in the past, he wasn't able to do it last night.  I think part of that is the game reminded me a bit of the Fulham game in the League Cup where we struggled first half but then widened the game by swapping Little for Matthews.  Obviously that wasn't possible because Little was out and, especially after their left-back went off and the rubbish left-bacl came on, Tomlin and Little could have had a lot of joy down that side.  I also think Bobby Reid's injury was unfortunate as he could have offered a lot in the last few minutes (but they had two forced subs too so that's not really an excuse).

All in all, I think we were tactically out-smarted last night and the fundamental problem with QPR (and perhaps Caridff, though I didn't see it) is we struggle when teams stop us from playing and make it scrappy.

[Super]

4 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Why does he? 

We (and he) could benefit from him having a total break.

Sooner or later he will have to...

He does need a break I agree the problem is we have little other options.

[Fat Cigar]

4 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Why does he? 

We (and he) could benefit from him having a total break.

Sooner or later he will have to...

Because Blackburn at home is one of those games we really need to win to get things back on track. Barnsley away will be extremely tricky, then it's Brighton at home, followed by Reading and Brum away. This Sat is (on paper) our easiest league game till December. 

[GrahamC]

3 minutes ago, Fat Cigar said:

Because Blackburn at home is one of those games we really need to win to get things back on track. Barnsley away will be extremely tricky, then it's Brighton at home, followed by Reading and Brum away. This Sat is (on paper) our easiest league game till December. 

But on the evidence of the last 2 games he isn't necessarily our best option.

We need him for the season not Saturday..

[downendcity]

10 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I think he is trying to be too smart with his team selection.

The complete opposite of Cotts who bashed away picking from the same 11 or 12 until he was sacked.

Rest and recuperation are fine and I like not overloading the same players (plus that we have genuine choices) but so is building an understanding, something evidently working with Hordur and Aden Flint.

This really applies in midfield, where there is too much chop & change.

Not hindsight, I said it before last night but we will need to give Tammy a proper rest soon as well.

I was thinking much the same Graham- does he overthink his selections?

I think he's ended up in catch 22 situation. We've had so many games where we've had a poor first half and have usually been behind, and he's then made substitutions ( not just one, but two or three players )  that have changed games and often turned them around. As a  result he then changes selection for the next game, but when the same thing happens and he again is forced into making second half substitutions, if they come off he is almost forcing himself into changing the starting 11 for the next game.

As for rest and recuperation, I bet Cotts' starting 11 for the majority of our title winning year weren't too bothered about rest and recuperation. When you are playing and winning  you don't feel tired. Struggling and losing is much more likely to make you feel tired and in need of a rest!

 

 

 

[LondonBristolian]

1 minute ago, GrahamC said:

But on the evidence of the last 2 games he isn't necessarily our best option.

We need him for the season not Saturday..

The problem is, until Engvall is fit at least, who is?

I love Wilbraham but he's 36 and, in any case, playing a battering ram type player requires a tactical change as to how we go about things.  Patterson might be the best option up-front as he's got the pace and skill but he's certainly not as prolific as Tammy.

One option on Saturday might be to bring Tammy on for the last 30 minutes so he gets some rest and is sharper when he comes on but we do lack a replacement at the moment. 

 

[Red Exile]

I missed the Fulham match but been at 4 of the past 5 away matches...from which we took one point...I'm still pretty optimistic. We're a work in progress.

As it happens I don't believe that LJ doesn't know his best starting 11. I suspect the proposition that we have a single "best starting 11" misses the point. I think he's looking for the best starting 11 to defeat the opposition confronting us. Hence the changes. 

But we have a lot of youngsters. Brownhill has impressed at times and then drifted out of matches. O'Dowda is a completely different sort of player to Freeman, he has pace and last night was denied cracking crosses by some excellent last ditch "body on the line" defending. Gary O'Neil is my signing of the season...runs the show. Tomlin a tad unlucky. Tammy just a whisker from a wonderful goal at the end of the first half. Fielding's distribution leaves something to be desired but his shot stopping kept us in the match.

But as ever too little credit is given to the opposition. Last night Caulker was immense, man of the match by a mile for me. Just look at his block to stop Tomlin passing to Tammy for what would surely have been an opening goal for us. He did that again and again...and when he wasn't there his centre back colleague was. They were on cracking form. More or less every team in the Championship can play well on their day...and Cardiff and QPR did just that, and narrowly beat us...as did Sheff. Weds. We're not far off being a really good side...give it time. As I say, work in progress in my view, fascinating to watch...let's thank heaven we have a side capable of competing at this level. Going to be an interesting season and I already have a ticket for Barnsley.

Incidentally, been watching City at Loftus Road since the early 80's. Still never see us play well.

 

[LondonBristolian]

2 minutes ago, downendcity said:

I was thinking much the same Graham- does he overthink his selections?

I think he's ended up in catch 22 situation. We've had so many games where we've had a poor first half and have usually been behind, and he's then made substitutions ( not just one, but two or three players )  that have changed games and often turned them around. As a  result he then changes selection for the next game, but when the same thing happens and he again is forced into making second half substitutions, if they come off he is almost forcing himself into changing the starting 11 for the next game.

As for rest and recuperation, I bet Cotts' starting 11 for the majority of our title winning year weren't too bothered about rest and recuperation. When you are playing and winning  you don't feel tired. Struggling and losing is much more likely to make you feel tired and in need of a rest!

 

 

 

I think the difference with our starting 11 in our title winning year, with no disrespect to the teams around us, was we were good enough to win at 80 or 90% of our full sharpness and ability whereas I think the margins are too tight in this league.  We can beat anyone at our best, but if we're off our best and other teams are on it, anyone can beat us.  

[Big C]

25 minutes ago, Red Exile said:

I missed the Fulham match but been at 4 of the past 5 away matches...from which we took one point...I'm still pretty optimistic. We're a work in progress.

 

 

Please can you stay away from away games then

[Fat Cigar]

31 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

But on the evidence of the last 2 games he isn't necessarily our best option.

We need him for the season not Saturday..

We do, but things can very quickly get away from you, and football's all about momentum. Who knows, we could rest Tammy Sat and draw or lose, but win at Barnsley and then beat Brighton. Pretty unlikely in my view. There will be better times to rest Tammy. All the more reason to score early, get another, and take him off after 65-70 mins. 

[New Dazzler]

All of the above plus we have lost every away night match in the Championship this season (Norwich, Sheff Weds, Cardiff and QPR).  Possible indication of a soft underbelly?

[Fat Cigar]

1 hour ago, New Dazzler said:

All of the above plus we have lost every away night match in the Championship this season (Norwich, Sheff Weds, Cardiff and QPR).  Possible indication of a soft underbelly?

Our record for midweek matches was awful last season, coming off the back of it being excellent in 2014/15. Doesn't really mean much. Still can't believe how we threw away that match at Sheff Weds.

[Red Exile]

4 hours ago, Big C said:

Please can you stay away from away games then

...it did occur to me!

[Jerseybean]

Thank you Fat Cigar for an excellent opening post and for your subsequent comments all of which makes sense and has led to a good discussion here. 

I am not persuaded that LJ is yet certain of his strongest starting line-up.

Agree that Joe Bryan is more comfortable further up the pitch, although he may mature into a full back.

Too many similar players among - Calum, Jamie, Josh, Joe, Bobby and Luke for me, given we need experience in there too in the shape of some combination of GON, KS, LT and MP we are seemingly trying to keep them all involved/happy.

Finally, as many have said, Tammy needs much greater support and back up; at the moment other than Wilbs it's hard to see where that's going to come from.

See us as a decent work-in-progress and finishing in the middle third of the table.