Fine Lines

[Fiale]

I just find it interesting how fine the lines are in the division at the moment. Based on our defence/conceded and chances/goals we are 6th in the Championship... of course being football the statistics do not tell the whole story, but it does goes to show we are being very wasteful and need to improve our finishing. It is also interesting to see that Reading have had 9 penalties this season, and Birmingham 7 - those penalties have gained them 5 and 7 points respectively. 

 

 

 

The elephant in the room is how much the model continues to look down its nose at Reading (and to a lesser extent Birmingham). These two clubs have been awarded the most penalties in the division (9 and 7 respectively, compared to an average of just 2.5), which tends not to be sustainable and the model dilutes their impact accordingly, so that’s suppressing their attack ratings. The Royals in particular could be more vulnerable in defence than they appear: they’ve conceded around 75% of the goals the model would expect, so either something is going on that the shot data isn’t measuring or they’ve been riding their luck a bit. Time will tell I suppose.

 

[BCFC_Dan]

It certainly backs up the belief that we're not a bad side and not far off being a good one.

Cases like Reading and Birmingham are interesting ones. They do well despite being quite poor statistically. They're either very lucky or there is a flaw in the model that means it can't handle the way they play. Given that Birmingham were the same last season I'd be inclined towards the latter. That said, while I'd always take league position over everything else, it is heartening to know that the team is better than the table suggests.

[Calculus]

Trouble with this model is that it is based on the full season to date and doesn't take account of teams improving or getting worse through the season. At the moment we are projected to be slightly better than Villa. Now that their new management and signings have bedded in they look to be on an upward path to me and would be almost certain that they will finish above is. Similarly, after a fantastic start we have been moving backwards and are in danger of continuing the trend. 

Don't think there's anything drastically wrong with City but our lack of striking options and failure to convert enough chances is a bit of a worry and needs addressing. Hoping that Lee's one up front strategy isn't his equivalent of Cott's three at the back....