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Things Aren't As Bad As 6 Defeats In 7 Suggest...

EnclosureSurge

By EnclosureSurge
in Football Chat

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EnclosureSurge

EnclosureSurge

Posted
Posted

(...although I note only Rotherham have worse form, currently, than us).

Watching the highlights of last weekend's goals in our div, I see Newcastle let in a fairly similar goal to Preston's first, at Burton (it's about 1min into the vid, if, like me, you are appalled by the sight and sound of Jeff Stelling).

Ball across the box, most people asleep, bloke at the back turns it in. If the self-proclaimed greatest/biggest ever club in the Championship can concede in such a manner, then surely us mortals are susceptible to the same?

On a slightly more serious note, it's not like we've been hammered in any of these defeats (the only hammering we've taken all season was the second 45 at Wednesday), we've been 'in and around' a draw or a win in all of them. Tammy's ability has momentarily deserted him, but it will return. There is little the manager can do about foreseeing that (although he can hopefully now foresee either giving him a rest for a couple of halves or buying him a partner).

We really aren't playing badly at all, those last two home defeats were all the tougher to take for us because we played well enough/created the chances/can see how we deserved something from each game (and don't give me all the "How many points do you get for 'deserving', mate?!")

I predict a win at Wolf!

(And don't reply with, "I was with you all the way up till you said about winning at Wolf. Then I knew you'd lost it...")

 

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pillred

pillred

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, EnclosureSurge said:

(...although I note only Rotherham have worse form, currently, than us).

Watching the highlights of last weekend's goals in our div, I see Newcastle let in a fairly similar goal to Preston's first, at Burton (it's about 1min into the vid, if, like me, you are appalled by the sight and sound of Jeff Stelling).

Ball across the box, most people asleep, bloke at the back turns it in. If the self-proclaimed greatest/biggest ever club in the Championship can concede in such a manner, then surely us mortals are susceptible to the same?

On a slightly more serious note, it's not like we've been hammered in any of these defeats (the only hammering we've taken all season was the second 45 at Wednesday), we've been 'in and around' a draw or a win in all of them. Tammy's ability has momentarily deserted him, but it will return. There is little the manager can do about foreseeing that (although he can hopefully now foresee either giving him a rest for a couple of halves or buying him a partner).

We really aren't playing badly at all, those last two home defeats were all the tougher to take for us because we played well enough/created the chances/can see how we deserved something from each game (and don't give me all the "How many points do you get for 'deserving', mate?!")

I predict a win at Wolf!

(And don't reply with, "I was with you all the way up till you said about winning at Wolf. Then I knew you'd lost it...")

 

you are probably right but it doesn't feel like it at the moment oh and its wolves

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EnclosureSurge

EnclosureSurge

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37 minutes ago, Dynamite Red said:

Yep we have that awesome combo of a mistake laden defensive unit, innefectual midfield, isolated attack and zero tempo. Can you let me know when things get really bad.

Aug-Dec 2015.

Start of season 2013-14.

Season 2012-13.

Possibly a bit of the season or so before that.

Start of 2005-06.

Play-off failures under Danny Wilson, including not making it after losing heavily at Blackpool.

Relegation from Day One of season 1998-99.

Relegation in 1994-95.

Pre-1989-90 1980s cock-ups, including play-off failures.

1980-1982.

Yep, those are the times were 'really bad'.

A "mistake laden defensive unit, innefectual [natch] midfield, isolated attack and zero tempo" (plus you forgot an existential goalkeeping crisis) doesn't even come close. A bit of perspective here puts things into context. If we lose the next 6 out of the next 7, then let's start talking about 'really bad'. Not even 7 defeats in 7 under Gary Johnson in 2005 was 'really bad' (8 in 9 if you really wanna crank it up). We nearly went up that self-same season. It's still a possibility to finish 10th - 8th - touching the play-offs, so why don't we look for the positives...

Of course it's more or less down to what kind of a personality you have (although, perversely, I count myself among the pessimists of the world, as far as BCFC are concerned). Where some see 6 defeats in 7, others see good performances and points just out of reach. Similarly, did we have balanced judgement at the start of the season with all the wins, were there many on here describing our win at Burton, correctly, as daylight robbery? Where 99% of us saw an unbeaten start to the season, others saw narrow wins and late goals...

One man's wassname is another's wotsit....

I suggest cleaving otib in two and having a Positive Otib and an Other otib. Then we could all post with like-minded posters. Unless you're bipolar (guilty!) and sign up to both....

You Reds!

 

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reddogkev

reddogkev

Posted
Posted

The major consolation to our recent poor form is the fact that, even if we lose to Wolves, there is still almost 1/2 a season left to rectify things.

It was mentioned on here during the week that LJ took over in Jan, when we were officially Championship relegation fodder, and saved us with little problem.

This season, instead of saving us, LJ has the challenge of getting back into the top ten.

Make no mistake though, irrespective of how we played or what the score was, losing 2 home games in a week to Brentford and Preston is abysmal.

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IAmNick

IAmNick

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Fiale said:

ScreenShot_20161219195950.png

ScreenShot_20161219195935.png

ScreenShot_20161219195923.png

ScreenShot_20161219195848.png

ScreenShot_20161219195823.png

Out of interest how are these calculated? For example, the first looks to me like we're scoring just over 1.5 goals/match, and conceding around 1.35.

Unless I've misunderstood it somehow we've played 22 and scored 28 according to the BBC, so that's around 1.2, not 1.5, which puts us around Leeds on the first one? And we've conceded 27, which is also around 1.2 so we should be in the lower left? Does it take into account who we've faced or what?

The top one makes it look like we're the 3rd most potent in the league which is just plainly nowhere near true. 4 or 5 teams have scored 10 more than us this year. It also has Wednesday up there with us, who again are nowhere near as potent as some others (they've scored 26, again more than 10 less than 4 or 5 some others in the league)

The other ones are also similarly odd...

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Fiale

Fiale

Posted
Posted

 

13 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

Out of interest how are these calculated? For example, the first looks to me like we're scoring just over 1.5 goals/match, and conceding around 1.35.

Unless I've misunderstood it somehow we've played 22 and scored 28 according to the BBC, so that's around 1.2, not 1.5, which puts us around Leeds on the first one? And we've conceded 27, which is also around 1.2 so we should be in the lower left? Does it take into account who we've faced or what?

The top one makes it look like we're the 3rd most potent in the league which is just plainly nowhere near true. 4 or 5 teams have scored 10 more than us this year. It also has Wednesday up there with us, who again are nowhere near as potent as some others (they've scored 26, again more than 10 less than 4 or 5 some others in the league)

The other ones are also similarly odd...

 

The full explanation is here https://experimental361.com/explanations/explanations-scatters/    it's all pretty damned clever.

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IAmNick

IAmNick

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Fiale said:

 

 

The full explanation is here https://experimental361.com/explanations/explanations-scatters/    it's all pretty damned clever.

So they're just scatter plots, and the top one doesn't take into account opposition or whatever which is why I'm so confused.

I've just done exactly what he did and here is what it actually looks like:

RexOPS3.png

X is goals scored/game and Y is goals conceeded/game, same as I think his is. His appears pretty different and I don't know why- on his Newcastle are around 1.55 expected goals per game. But they've played 22 and scored 45 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/table) so how did he get that?

I highlighted us red just in case anyone is sad enough to care as much as I apparently have :ph34r:

 

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RumRed

RumRed

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Cheesleysmate said:

It's got nothing to do with the results. It is all about away attendance and how many were locked out.

It's also about "Possession and Position" and keeping Pack in a cage.

Well we are above Cardiff, Rovers and Swindon.  Does anything else matter, happy days.....,

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RumRed

RumRed

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Robert the bruce said:

Its OK,your medicine is on the way........

Already had them, I prefer the uppers that wake me up rather than the mogadon that keep you anaethistised to reality and lead to blind acceptance.

 

Or maybe you missed the subscript...

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JamesBCFC

JamesBCFC

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, IAmNick said:

So they're just scatter plots, and the top one doesn't take into account opposition or whatever which is why I'm so confused.

I've just done exactly what he did and here is what it actually looks like:

RexOPS3.png

X is goals scored/game and Y is goals conceeded/game, same as I think his is. His appears pretty different and I don't know why- on his Newcastle are around 1.55 expected goals per game. But they've played 22 and scored 45 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/table) so how did he get that?

I highlighted us red just in case anyone is sad enough to care as much as I apparently have :ph34r:

 

the "expected" isnt down to their average goals per game alone, but from an algorithm looking at average shots per goal, average quality of the chance and other variables.

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Kingswood Robin

Kingswood Robin

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Dynamite Red said:

Yep we have that awesome combo of a mistake laden defensive unit, innefectual midfield, isolated attack and zero tempo. Can you let me know when things get really bad.

Just think back to the last time we were in the Championship when we were being thrashed all the time, going through complete halves of matches barely touching the ball and away fans singing "why the **** are you still here?" at us!  

I'm as disappointed with the results as much as anyone at the moment, but I don't come away from matches thinking the whole team need replacing as I have in the past. A bit more evolution required, yes, revolution, no.

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CyderInACan

CyderInACan

Posted
Posted

I can't see us getting owt at Wolves on BD but then again that's EXACTLY the sort of game that that we then go and win. I know nuffink. Our problem is good players having a drop in form. Not bad players struggling to find form. 

Not particularly encouraging noises emanating from BS3 earlier but in LJ and the fabled Mr. Ashton we must trust. 

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cidered abroad

cidered abroad

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, CyderInACan said:

I can't see us getting owt at Wolves on BD but then again that's EXACTLY the sort of game that that we then go and win. I know nuffink. Our problem is good players having a drop in form. Not bad players struggling to find form. 

Not particularly encouraging noises emanating from BS3 earlier but in LJ and the fabled Mr. Ashton we must trust. 

We will not win at Wolves and Ipswich because it is written into the Football League rules that we are not permitted to win at certain grounds anymore. Wolves (85 years since we did)Ipswich (40 years) and there are plenty more still to come like Villa, Newcastle, Brighton .......

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GodEmperor Palpatine

GodEmperor Palpatine

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

We will not win at Wolves and Ipswich because it is written into the Football League rules that we are not permitted to win at certain grounds anymore. Wolves (85 years since we did)Ipswich (40 years) and there are plenty more still to come like Villa, Newcastle, Brighton .......

As you have said this I take it you won't be moaning about the manager, tactics and so on after the next 2 games?

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