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Afer 26 games this time a year ago, we had 21 points.....


Jack Dawe

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...we sacked Cotts and then proceeded to collect a further 31 points - with nine wins - from the remaining 20 games. Seven of those nine wins came in the first 12 after Cotts jogged on. We got our staying up business done early. I think we were safe with two games to go.

I cannot for the life of me see this happening again, although I couldn't see it happening 12 months ago either.

If we do stay up, it looks to me like it will be by a fine margin. very fine margin. I can only foresee a very uncomfortable few months ahead. We have some "unhappy hunting grounds" to visit after Forest (can we win there again?)

Where will we get five or six wins from, never mind nine in the remaining 20 games?

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22nd place last six seasons;

15/16 - Charlton - 40

14/15 - Millwall - 41

13/14 - Doncaster - 44 (down on goal difference, as level on points with Birmingham)

12/13 - Peterborough - 54 (we went down bottom with 41)

11/12 - Portsmouth - 40 (after -10 points; 21st was Barnsley with 48, then us in 20th with 49, for the record)

10/11 - Preston - 42

That's means an average of 44 points (rounding down) or less see you relegated in this league, and this season after 26 games, 22nd (Blackburn) have more points (24) than the team in 22nd at the same point last year (errr... us, with 21 points), which suggests a higher number of points are needed to stay up.

I'd say we need a bare minimum of 45 to stay up - and that might not be enough this year.  That's 18 points from the remaining 20 games.  For context; we've around a point a game (give or take partials) so far this year.

Frankly; unless we fix up quick smart, I cannot see where the bare minimum is coming from - after Forest, then we face Villa and Wednesday, before Rotherham, then four sides currently in the top eight.

Were are the wins/points we need come from?

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Has anyone had a look at our final 5 games?

QPR - currently 17th

Blackburn - currently 22nd

Barnsley - currently 10th

Brighton - currently 2nd

Birmingham - currently 12th

So two teams who could be battling at the wrong end of the table like us, two teams with mid to upper table hopes and one team with title chances. Could be worse, could be better!

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I don't think getting the points is at all impossible. I honestly think - maybe Newcastle aside  - there is nobody in the division we need to fear. Which makes it all the more frustrating that we seem to fear everyone.

I think what annoys me most about the defeats I have seen this season is that, unlike the relegation season or last year under Cotts, we're not getting outclassed and nor do we look like a particularly poor side. We have a decent share of possession, get a decent number of shots in etc.  But we seem to be so worried about what the opposition can do we fail to make teams worry about what we can do.

 

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