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Have we got a good side?


Sepp Blatter

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I keep hearing that "we've got a side that can compete in this league". But have we? 

I sometimes feel that people get swept away with signings from Juve and the like, simply because the the come from, well, Juve and the like. 

Lets looks at the squad closer. 

Milan Duric - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Jens Hegeler - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Hordor Magnusson - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Well he's part of a failing defence
Fabian Giefer - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Gustav Engvall - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Bailey Wright - Played 43 times in total in the Championship 

How can anyone say that we've got a squad that good enough for the Championship? Do you know what, I'm not convinced we have. 

 

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Very good point and  add the names of;

Flint, Little, Bryan, O'Dowda, Brownhill, Pack, Moore, Reid, Goldbourne, Freeman are hardly proven Championship achievers.

O'Neill, Tomlin, Fielding,Patterson and now Tammy?  you could argue have achieved to be 'proven' Championship quality. 

We'll be OK in the future though, just think DNA.

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The premiership is littered with players who had never played in it before they joined their present club.  If you're good enough, you'll do well.

We were doing ok earlier in the season. What has changed?  I think the narrowness of the defeats may in itself be a problem.  The implication is that we are not far off, losing unluckily.  Maybe that is the case, but perhaps if you are getting walloped week after week it is easier to see what is going wrong.  I think confidence has to be a major factor here, and I'd have the club's sports psychologist working overtime if it were me.  You can't overstate the value of morale and team spirit at a time like this.

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There are probably just enough players of a decent championship calibre to put together a team capable of competing in this league. However just having the right ingredients doesn't make a palatable dish.

First you need to identify your best players. Second find a system in which works to their advantage and creates a team that is greater than the sum of its parts. Try to be tight at the back and have pace up front. Next you need to practice and drill the players in that system so that they understand its strengths and more importantly it's weaknesses, so that at worst they can at least mitigate against them. Finally you pick as settled a team as possible to play your chosen formation and style.

6 months into this season & I am not sure that LJ has got past step one!

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I think the players will be very aware that the majority of fans have lost faith in the management, this will hugely affect the teams morale and performance even more.

Even if the squad is good enough a lost dressing room means our success (staying up) is unattainable in their minds now as well as ours-psychology says relegation, results are proving the same. 

With a new management team at the helm and a huge confidence boost (arm around key players) the team is very capable. We simply must make the inevitable change NOW. 

 

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18 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

The premiership is littered with players who had never played in it before they joined their present club.  If you're good enough, you'll do well.

We were doing ok earlier in the season. What has changed?  I think the narrowness of the defeats may in itself be a problem.  The implication is that we are not far off, losing unluckily.  Maybe that is the case, but perhaps if you are getting walloped week after week it is easier to see what is going wrong.  I think confidence has to be a major factor here, and I'd have the club's sports psychologist working overtime if it were me.  You can't overstate the value of morale and team spirit at a time like this.

I get that, however, a bulk of our squad are complete unknowns. You say we were doing well at the beginning of the season. Doesn't that argument also work for the manager?  Please bear in mind I'm just playing devils advocate for debating purposes.

15 minutes ago, marmite said:

We have very good players that are being poorly managed. They are all plenty good enough to compete in the Championship.IMO.

Same answer to this really? How do you know that they're good players? We've hardly seen them play. 
I love Mags as a person, is he good enough though? 

It can't all be down to the manager! 

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18 minutes ago, Sepp Blatter said:

Hordor Magnusson - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball.

Eh? This was true in the summer. I'd have thought most of us have seen him play at least once by now though? He looks adequate at the very least.

We have most, but not all, of a decent squad now. The team is better than it's showing at the moment but maybe not top 6 like we'd hoped a few months ago.

This, from Experimental361, shows how the team has performed relative to how the stats say it "should" perform over the past couple of years:

C2trxoaXAAEeJmv.jpg

The red line is how the model thinks we should be doing. The blue line is how we are doing. Blue shading indicates overachievement and red underachievement.

By and large, our red line has tracked 0, indicating a mediocre side that creates and allows a similar number of chances.

We seemed to start the season doing rather better than the model suggested we should, raised our game to match for a bit and then suddenly real-world form fell off a cliff. The model thinks we're still doing the right things to be at least mediocre, but reality isn't playing along.

I'd say (with the usual caveat that the model could be wrong) this suggests that the current form cannot last and will eventually return to something more like mid-table form. If the red line had dipped along with the blue then we'd be in trouble. It may yet do that and I think that would spell the end for the manager, but I'm confident that the team is OK if not great and that things will pick up.

Of course what may well happen is that a rebound in form, which might have occurred anyway, coincides with the appointment of a new manager, who receives all the credit for the turnaround only to be blamed the next time the team underachieves.

 

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Great question - here's my logic on it though: for all those players you mention who hadn't played here before and are unknown quantities, we have a set of players who had played for us before who we knew very well - several even under Johnson himself for over three months of last season.

So for the purposes of your question, if it were an experiment, those players from last season would be our "control" or "placebo" tests. Over the course of this season, all those "control" players, with the possible exception of Bobby Reid have: got worse, looked more confused, become less effective.

So if and when I see these new signings exhibiting similar traits, I have sufficient data to determine this is the result of a universal effect, not a personal defect. As it happens, many of the new signings have looked class from time to time, but the overall pattern (or 'Johnson Effect') is impacting all. Q.E.D.

On the other hand, if we haven't got a squad good enough for the Championship, after £10-15m down, Mark Ashton might want to accompany Lee Johnson on their way. Thankfully I don't believe this to be the case and I quietly believe (hope?) we will see one almighty bounce under a new manager.

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4 minutes ago, Olé said:

Great question - here's my logic on it though: for all those players you mention who hadn't played here before and are unknown quantities, we have a set of players who had played for us before who we knew very well - several even under Johnson himself for over three months of last season.

So for the purposes of your question, if it were an experiment, those players from last season would be our "control" or "placebo" tests. Over the course of this season, all those "control" players, with the possible exception of Bobby Reid have: got worse, looked more confused, become less effective.

So if and when I see these new signings exhibiting similar traits, I have sufficient data to determine this is the result of a universal effect, not a personal defect. As it happens, many of the new signings have looked class from time to time, but the overall pattern (or 'Johnson Effect') is impacting all. Q.E.D.

On the other hand, if we haven't got a squad good enough for the Championship, after £10-15m down, Mark Ashton might want to accompany Lee Johnson on their way. Thankfully I don't believe this to be the case and I quietly believe (hope?) we will see one almighty bounce under a new manager.

I think that you've got the same hope as me Ole. 

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I would say yes it is a good side.

If I compare our matchday squad versus those around us and I would include to at least mid table. It looks on paper to be quite impressive. The key here is 'on paper' and I'm afraid it has to come down to coaching and or management. I really can't stand dinosaurs like Warnock and that bellend Holloway but what would they get out of a similar matchday squad. BTW I don't want either of them at City but trying to illustrate that even muppetry could do a lot better than the current incumbent.

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38 minutes ago, Sepp Blatter said:

I keep hearing that "we've got a side that can compete in this league". But have we? 

I sometimes feel that people get swept away with signings from Juve and the like, simply because the the come from, well, Juve and the like. 

Lets looks at the squad closer. 

Milan Duric - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Jens Hegeler - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Hordor Magnusson - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Well he's part of a failing defence
Fabian Giefer - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Gustav Engvall - Never played in this league. Most of us if not all of us haven't seen him kick a ball. Is he good enough for the Championship? Who knows. 
Bailey Wright - Played 43 times in total in the Championship 

How can anyone say that we've got a squad that good enough for the Championship? Do you know what, I'm not convinced we have. 

 

Magnusson??...I think a few of us have seen him play on more than one occasion,and yes he can 'do it'.

As for Hegeler the wonder is how we managed to get him here,and for peanuts as regards the fee-he is out of place if anything,a class above...

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19 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Eh? This was true in the summer. I'd have thought most of us have seen him play at least once by now though? He looks adequate at the very least.

We have most, but not all, of a decent squad now. The team is better than it's showing at the moment but maybe not top 6 like we'd hoped a few months ago.

This, from Experimental361, shows how the team has performed relative to how the stats say it "should" perform over the past couple of years:

C2trxoaXAAEeJmv.jpg

The red line is how the model thinks we should be doing. The blue line is how we are doing. Blue shading indicates overachievement and red underachievement.

By and large, our red line has tracked 0, indicating a mediocre side that creates and allows a similar number of chances.

We seemed to start the season doing rather better than the model suggested we should, raised our game to match for a bit and then suddenly real-world form fell off a cliff. The model thinks we're still doing the right things to be at least mediocre, but reality isn't playing along.

I'd say (with the usual caveat that the model could be wrong) this suggests that the current form cannot last and will eventually return to something more like mid-table form. If the red line had dipped along with the blue then we'd be in trouble. It may yet do that and I think that would spell the end for the manager, but I'm confident that the team is OK if not great and that things will pick up.

Of course what may well happen is that a rebound in form, which might have occurred anyway, coincides with the appointment of a new manager, who receives all the credit for the turnaround only to be blamed the next time the team underachieves.

 

Nice use of stats and charts.

Accepting your model that we are producing chances but doing worse than expected, is returning to the norm of mid table form going to be enough? 

Remember for the last third of last season we were in the top 6 in the form table but still only finished 18th. If we only pick up 1.25 points per game from now until the rest of the season we will still only manage 50 or 51 points.

Given that Blackburn look like they are picking up, we have to be better than Rotherham, Wigan & Burton. Not even convinced we can achieve that and given our next few fixtures, I fully expect us to be rooted in the bottom 3 by the beginning of March, unless there is a radical change.

Any suggestions?

 

 

 

 

Only kidding!! I think at least 90% of OTIB know what to do...

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6 minutes ago, Robert the bruce said:

Magnusson??...I think a few of us have seen him play on more than one occasion,and yes he can 'do it'.

As for Hegeler the wonder is how we managed to get him here,and for peanuts as regards the fee-he is out of place if anything,a class above...

Maybe Hegeler is using us as a stepping stone for bigger and better things? If he shines in a side which is struggling and stands out above the rest! then this could open the eyes to other teams in this league or above. 

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26 minutes ago, Sepp Blatter said:

I get that, however, a bulk if our squad are complete unknowns. You say we were doing well at the beginning of the season. Doesn't that argument also work for the manager?  Please bear in mind I'm just playing devils advocate for debating purposes.

Same answer to this really? How do you know that they're good players? We've hardly seen them play. 
I love Mags as a person, is he good enough though? 

It can't all be down to the manager! 

This has got me thinking about the role of the manager and the role of the players.  The manager plans, prepares and motivates, but on the day the players have to deliver.  So what is missing.  Is it motivation?  Certainly I've seen in my own work how morale can affect individual performance, and I've seen staff who simply don't want to work for their Chief Executive.  I've also seen staff who feel so demotivated that they question their own ability, they lose their own belief in themselves.  You don't become a bad player overnight, so what is happening?  The notion that the players 'aren't playing for the manager' feels increasingly likely, but why is it?  Sometimes it is because there are disruptive factions in the organisation, sometimes it can be (in any walk of life) because the manager simply has lost the respect of the staff - but what has happened to cause that?  I wish someone actually knew what was going on here, because it baffles me.

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My first thought was to slate this post. However, thinking about it, it is a normal and relevant question. I'd say most are up for it. Magnusson, Tammy, Hegeler and Wright look well up for it right now. O'Neil, Tomlin and Paterson have done it in this division successfully. Giefer I guess you could call a gamble but has played at levels higher than Bristol City have. 

Moore, Djuric and Engvall are scouted heavily and the club feel they are gambles they have to take as similar English(Moore is English but grew up in France)players would probably cost at least double and wouldn't be available to us. 

O'Dowda and Brownhill are the lower league players many ask we take a chance on. In my opinion, are two of the best prospects we bought in the summer. I think they'll have lengthy championship careers at worst. I think O'Dowda has prem potential. Well just have to see with them. They weren't ever supposed to be major contributors this season along with Engvall and Moore. People see the money spent on them and go mad but they are still value if we can nurture their talents. Which is something we haven't been great at but it's the way the club wants to go rightly or wrongly. 

I think our biggest areas of disappointment have been from those that won L1 with us. Ayling in hindsight looks a bad decision but he's definitely upped his game at Leeds. Something Bryan, Little, Freeman and others that have left didn't do. Flint has gotten better but is he good enough? Wilbs is a great professional but is now 37. Pack has gotten better but I'm not sure he fits the current "style." 

Are we good enough? Yes and we are easily good enough. For whatever reason, and I'm not here to argue about manager and tactics, we aren't performing. Some of it is players not good enough and that is why we have recruited new players. 80% of starting XI is more than good enough and the other 20% have enough good games for us not to be on this run. 

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4 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

This has got me thinking about the role of the manager and the role of the players.  The manager plans, prepares and motivates, but on the day the players have to deliver.  So what is missing.  Is it motivation?  Certainly I've seen in my own work how morale can affect individual performance, and I've seen staff who simply don't want to work for their Chief Executive.  I've also seen staff who feel so demotivated that they question their own ability, they lose their own belief in themselves.  You don't become a bad player overnight, so what is happening?  The notion that the players 'aren't playing for the manager' feels increasingly likely, but why is it?  Sometimes it is because there are disruptive factions in the organisation, sometimes it can be (in any walk of life) because the manager simply has lost the respect of the staff - but what has happened to cause that?  I wish someone actually knew what was going on here, because it baffles me.

I think baffles most of us on here.

We as fans only see match days so we are second guessing about everything. I to have seen the same things as you in the work place and can't see why football would be that different. 

I look at it from the players point of view. How many formations have been used lately? Sometimes the formations change completely more than once in one game. Do the players actually know what LJ is asking them to do and when to do it? Football in my opinion can be over complicated and over coached and I feel that LJ is trying and to be too clever. It isn't working, so the approach should be to get back to basics. Training sessions must be like the Krypton Factor (one for the kids). 

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12 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Certainly I've seen in my own work how morale can affect individual performance, and I've seen staff who simply don't want to work for their Chief Executive.  I've also seen staff who feel so demotivated that they question their own ability, they lose their own belief in themselves. 

I also keep trying to apply business / management experiences to what has happened at City this season, but I don't think many comparisons hold.

The best I could come up with is the Holden effect (hired more or less at the start of our bad run) and what happens in business when you parachute in a new middle manager and extra layers of command and all those re-assigned to that new leader, deteriorate/rebel as a result of a) having had designs on their own seniority or b) feeling unfairly sidelined/marginalised by not having direct access to a previous more senior manager (LJ?).

But I can't seriously reconcile that being the cause of our problems as football doesn't really have the same succession planning that makes employees feel they're owed the right to progress to where their manager is. However, it would be worth considering whether something in the revised coaching structure did make players feel undermined? Why is this inexperienced coach elevating himself away from us with these new middle men?

The other thing to consider is if Holden's arrival meant Pemberton was re-focussed only on a smaller group of players (i.e. defence), those in midfield/attack who had been promoted with Pemberton finally lost the one piece of man-management continuity they had had going back to the L1 days - or in other words, while LJ's arrival was evolution, the re-org of coaches was the first real revolution in terms of break with the past - and players didn't like it? 

Probably clutching at straws here - the consistent theme all season has been the setup/instructions, I think results are just belatedly reflecting a poor approach that every other team in the division now knows how to deal with.

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4 minutes ago, JonDolman said:

I think we've got a quality bunch of players. Short in 2 positions. If someone like Rowett gets the job then I would expect us to win plenty of games from now till the end of the season. Im certainly not left scratching my head when I see us lose. I can see exactly where Johnson went wrong each time. 

And do the players share responsibility in your view?  They are adults, able to make grown-up decision, after all.  Doe the manager have to say to them "Go out there and play well" for them to play well?  Who at Forest was responsible for the moment that won the game for them?  When did we last see a moment of invididual brilliance like that?  Freeman against Ipswich, I suppose, the last time we won a league match...

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2 hours ago, Robert the bruce said:

Magnusson??...I think a few of us have seen him play on more than one occasion,and yes he can 'do it'.

As for Hegeler the wonder is how we managed to get him here,and for peanuts as regards the fee-he is out of place if anything,a class above...

Ok, Magnusson was a bad example. 

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