Jump to content
IGNORED

Relegation Doomsday Thread


...

Recommended Posts

It's time.

Not just City (mainly City), but all things doom and relegation.

My prediction? It will go down to the last day of the season: how nice will that be?

Here is why:-

We will need at least 4 more wins from our last 13; Wigan will need at least 5 from 12; Blackburn at least 5 from their last 14.

The average league position of the teams we play is around 12th /13th - and on a positive note, we have a very slightly easier run in - but not by much. We also have 7 home games, and only 6 away.

We have 4 relegation "6-pointers"; Wigan and Blackburn only 3: this will be critical. We win those, we will stay up, but if we don't ............

Looking at these games, we have to play both Wigan and Blackburn away.

Finally, it's about winning:-

We have won once in the last 10; Wigan have won 3 times in that period, and Blackburn twice.

"It don't look good".

:badmood:

 

tfj (doomed, I say).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

It's time.

Not just City (mainly City), but all things doom and relegation.

My prediction? It will go down to the last day of the season: how nice will that be?

Here is why:-

We will need at least 4 more wins from our last 13; Wigan will need at least 5 from 12; Blackburn at least 5 from their last 14.

The average league position of the teams we play is around 12th /13th - and on a positive note, we have a very slightly easier run in - but not by much. We also have 7 home games, and only 6 away.

We have 4 relegation "6-pointers"; Wigan and Blackburn only 3: this will be critical. We win those, we will stay up, but if we don't ............

Looking at these games, we have to play both Wigan and Blackburn away.

Finally, it's about winning:-

We have won once in the last 10; Wigan have won 3 times in that period, and Blackburn twice.

"It don't look good".

:badmood:

 

tfj (doomed, I say).

If it DOES go down to that last game we are going to be without arguably our best player (David Cotterill) for that very match, so oh, dear

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, archie andrews said:

didn't expect points away to derby and Newcastle so if we get minimum 3 points next 2 games its gotta be positive

You are right.

6 points would be even better - as would a Euromillions win on Tuesday.

Possible but unlikely?

Why?

WE CAN'T WIN MATCHES.

FFS!

 

tfj

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

WHERE ARE THE WINS COMING FROM?

:badmood:

 

 

tfj

No need to shout, I totally agree. 
All the "we only lose by one goal" posts and the "yeah we were seven goals up but it's still a good point" post really piss me off.
A defeat is a defeat , no points for coming second . Turning 2+ goal leads into a draw is not going to keep us up, somehow we need to win, and soon.

All our home games are winnable , not easy but winnable if we can stop self harming, though Huddersfield are flying the rest I would give us a chance.
Burton, Norwich , Huddersfield , QPR , Barnsley and Birmingham. 

The away games, depends (as do the home games do ) on which team turns up but some vital games there.
Villa , Wigan ,Brentford , Preston , Blackburn and Brighton.

It won't matter if we don't start winning soon, I think that's the point TFJ was trying to make.:whistle:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm no expert on football, so can anyone explain to me why a team that dominated in the first half and clearly rattled the opposition, can come out with such a different mindset after the break? I know Rafa probably gave his lot hell at half time, but God knows what our guys were given...Prozac maybe? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

Turning 2+ goal leads into a draw is not going to keep us up, somehow we need to win, and soon.

 

Yes, but there is a huge difference between doing this against Derby and Newcastle (away) than say Rotherham. Nobody thinks it's great to lose a 2 or 3 goal lead we're just realistic that getting a point in those 2 away fixtures is actually good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, RichardEdd said:

Yes, but there is a huge difference between doing this against Derby and Newcastle (away) than say Rotherham. Nobody thinks it's great to lose a 2 or 3 goal lead we're just realistic that getting a point in those 2 away fixtures is actually good. 

Sorry but getting a point from 2 or 3 goals down is great, getting a point is good. Losing a 2 or 3 goal lead and barely hanging on is not good and hardly sets you up for a relegation battle. Every team we play now will know they're still in the game even if we go 2 goals up. 
Reading,Seff W, Derby and yesterday has cost us12 points, ok I'll give you the 2 draws then. 10 points ! Add those points and we would be 14th. 
Anyone can lose a 2 goal lead I grant you that, but 4 times in a couple of months? Spin it any way you want it is not good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Meryl Goodrum said:

I'm no expert on football, so can anyone explain to me why a team that dominated in the first half and clearly rattled the opposition, can come out with such a different mindset after the break? I know Rafa probably gave his lot hell at half time, but God knows what our guys were given...Prozac maybe? 

I wouldn't say we dominated the first half, or it certainly didn't look like where i was sitting. We were under the cosh most of the game as the stats will show. We had some chances and thankfully we took a couple. A point from that game yesterday is a great point considering there 64% possession to our 36% and there 20 shots to our 9. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, cityboy99 said:

I wouldn't say we dominated the first half, or it certainly didn't look like where i was sitting. We were under the cosh most of the game as the stats will show. We had some chances and thankfully we took a couple. A point from that game yesterday is a great point considering there 64% possession to our 36% and there 20 shots to our 9. 

Possession is a funny stat. Brum had 62%  against QPR and lost 4-1. The shots stat is a little more telling although on BBC site we had 5 each on target , it must have been a good defensive performance . 
On the radio it said we were camped in our own box, was it that much of an Alamo game?
I would like to see the manager try to get them to push out, just try and defend slightly higher , he just seems to stand there with little or no input.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, ploppy said:

Thankfully Birmingham are nearly as shite as us at the moment so I couldn't think of a better final game 

The best scenario for us is, Brum are already safe, if we win Wolves are relegated, 2500 Brum fans in various states of fancy dress cheering every move we make.

With ten minutes to go we score to take the lead, Brum kick off and give us the ball, all 11 Brum players then stand in their own penalty area for the remainder of the game.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, BigTone said:

Whoa just calm down Unk. Did the Nurses not serve custard with your apple crumble today

Custard alone is not a good enough 'coping strategy'.

You need a diet full of nutrients; regular exercise, and a mental health regime.

Good luck with the last one, nutter.

:fingerscrossed:

 

tfj

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, OddBallJim said:

Fact of the matter is we won't be winning any matches unless we start keeping clean sheets. Scoring isn't an issue for this city team. Keeping the ball out of our own net is however.

I no!

He mentioned City keeping clean sheets ..........

 

 

Unless I have added it up wrong, we have done this just four times (4) this season:

Rotherham (!!) H on 4th feb

Blackburn (!!) H on 22nd Oct

Leeds H 27th Sept

Fulham A 24th Sept.

 

Conceded in EVERY other game.

 

Oh ****.

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Went to Wembley yesterday for EFL Final with my younger Brother who is a Saints ST holder. After going 2-0 down, I thought, here we go again and at half time thought, how many more. Soton came out and played their hearts out and got the 2 goals to equalise. Couldnt help but thinking, yes we are a sh*t Man Utd in disguise but true to their bl***y form against the run of play, Scumbag Utd scored to win, so It don't just happen to us. Was gutted for my bro and all the Saints fans but the best thing was the £9.80 tube return for just 2 stations and the £5.20 pint of real ale.:yawn:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, oldstandrobin said:

Went to Wembley yesterday for EFL Final with my younger Brother who is a Saints ST holder. After going 2-0 down, I thought, here we go again and at half time thought, how many more. Soton came out and played their hearts out and got the 2 goals to equalise. Couldnt help but thinking, yes we are a sh*t Man Utd in disguise but true to their bl***y form against the run of play, Scumbag Utd scored to win, so It don't just happen to us. Was gutted for my bro and all the Saints fans but the best thing was the £9.80 tube return for just 2 stations and the £5.20 pint of real ale.:yawn:

£5.20?

£5.20??

I only passed the £4 threshold a few months ago, and normally pay £3-something.

I am NOT ready for £5.

:no:

 

tfj

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

£5.20?

£5.20??

I only passed the £4 threshold a few months ago, and normally pay £3-something.

I am NOT ready for £5.

:no:

 

tfj

Another reason for not getting relegated, by the time we make the JPT or Lge 1 Play Off Finals it will be £12.20 :whistle:

Johnson Out 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, oldstandrobin said:

Another reason for not getting relegated, by the time we make the JPT or Lge 1 Play Off Finals it will be £12.20 :whistle:

Johnson Out 

I've thought of a reason for being relegated:-

- season tickets will be cheaper.

- more elbow room in the stadium.

- might win some games?

- and LJ will get sacked ..............

 

........... or will he ......... ??

:shifty:

 

 

"Taxi for Johnson!!!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

I've thought of a reason for being relegated:-

- season tickets will be cheaper.

- more elbow room in the stadium.

- might win some games?

- and LJ will get sacked ..............

 

........... or will he ......... ??

:shifty:

 

 

"Taxi for Johnson!!!"

especially on a freezing january night on tuesday home to Rochdale :colder:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, cityboy99 said:

I wouldn't say we dominated the first half, or it certainly didn't look like where i was sitting. We were under the cosh most of the game as the stats will show. We had some chances and thankfully we took a couple. A point from that game yesterday is a great point considering there 64% possession to our 36% and there 20 shots to our 9. 

Thanks for the info. I wasn't able to get to the game so was just going by the radio commentary.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

I no!

He mentioned City keeping clean sheets ..........

 

 

Unless I have added it up wrong, we have done this just four times (4) this season:

Rotherham (!!) H on 4th feb

Blackburn (!!) H on 22nd Oct

Leeds H 27th Sept

Fulham A 24th Sept.

 

Conceded in EVERY other game.

 

Oh ****.

 

 

 

 

 

You forgot to put tfj at the bottom of this post.

freezer

ps why the need to do it anyway?

pps unfortunately think we're down unless things improve with some consistency all round :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

I've thought of a reason for being relegated:-

- season tickets will be cheaper.

- more elbow room in the stadium.

- might win some games?

- and LJ will get sacked ..............

 

........... or will he ......... ??

 

Don't forget......

-  Loads of parking space.

 

That's why they didn't build any car parks....no need for them.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People say 50 points year in year out and while in all but a few seasons it will guarantee that's a high bar...

Excluding administration which certainly affects things, the following have been needed in the last 10 Championship season to stay up- factoring out administration if a team is relegated on that- the third bottom teams points totals:

  • 06-07 Southend- 42 points
  • 07-08 Leicester- 52 points This is freakishly high
  • 08-09 Plymouth 51- or would have been but Southampton went into admin and dropped instead. Again on the extra high side.
  • 09-10 Sheff Wed- 47 And this is more like it.
  • 10-11 Preston- 42
  • 11-12 Barnsley 48- or would have been but Portsmouth went into admin and dropped instead. About par.
  • 12-13 Peterborough 54- that was absurdly high, the whole bottom to middle from 10th down was...with one exception. Us, we got relegated by a street, I still remember it!
  • 13-14 Doncaster-44 Again nice and low, middling.
  • 14-15 Millwall- 41 Fantastic, this is what would see us nearly safe already.
  • 15-16 Charlton- 40 Again, even better that is.

So the long story short is, even factoring admin into account, only about 46, 47 points needed and that's assuming admin drops nobody in it! 4 wins, a draw or 2 here and there and we should get over the line!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

People say 50 points year in year out and while in all but a few seasons it will guarantee that's a high bar...

Excluding administration which certainly affects things, the following have been needed in the last 10 Championship season to stay up- factoring out administration if a team is relegated on that- the third bottom teams points totals:

  • 06-07 Southend- 42 points
  • 07-08 Leicester- 52 points This is freakishly high
  • 08-09 Plymouth 51- or would have been but Southampton went into admin and dropped instead. Again on the extra high side.
  • 09-10 Sheff Wed- 47 And this is more like it.
  • 10-11 Preston- 42
  • 11-12 Barnsley 48- or would have been but Portsmouth went into admin and dropped instead. About par.
  • 12-13 Peterborough 54- that was absurdly high, the whole bottom to middle from 10th down was...with one exception. Us, we got relegated by a street, I still remember it!
  • 13-14 Doncaster-44 Again nice and low, middling.
  • 14-15 Millwall- 41 Fantastic, this is what would see us nearly safe already.
  • 15-16 Charlton- 40 Again, even better that is.

So the long story short is, even factoring admin into account, only about 46, 47 points needed and that's assuming admin drops nobody in it! 4 wins, a draw or 2 here and there and we should get over the line!

**** me you put a lot of effort into your post.

Thanks for giving a shit.

:hug:

 

tfj (happy now?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we do need at least 4 more wins, tonight is probably going to need to be one of them.

Villa are one of three games we have left against a side in really poor from - the others being Wolves and Birmingham.

If we don't beat Villa, we will have to pick lots of points up against the likes of Burton, Wigan, Brentford and QPR.

We don't show any signs of winning these games, and we can't hold a lead. I heard t'other day we've surrendered 19 points from winning positions.

:badmood:

Before you say anything, re-read the thread title.

 

tfj

                                                          

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So we need 14 points from 13 games to survive by the skin of our teeth then?

That doesn't sound too bad until we work out how many games it's taken us to accrue our last 14 points. That' since Forest at home (16 points since if you include those 3), that's 23 league games.

Oh sh1t!! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, 8menhadadream said:

So we need 14 points from 13 games to survive by the skin of our teeth then?

That doesn't sound too bad until we work out how many games it's taken us to accrue our last 14 points. That' since Forest at home (16 point since if you include those 3), that's 23 league games.

Oh sh1t!! 

:badmood:

 

tfj

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wake up on 1st March, and realise this is not a nightmare - it is actually happening.

We lost 2-0 at Villa, one of the worst 3 teams on form in the division - along with us and Rotherham, who are down already.

:badmood:

It was virtually a 6 pointer, and Villa are now safe.

:badmood:

Where does it leave us?

12 games left needing - now - more than a point per game, probably.

Still need at least four wins, which we seem incapable of. We needed points at Villa.

The current form table = relegation extremely likely:-

 

19th - Blackburn: 3 wins, 4 draws from last 10 (13 points)

20th - Wigan:       3 wins, 3 draws (12 points)

21st - Burton:      3 wins, 2 draws (11 points)

22nd - Wolves:    3 wins, 1 draw (10 points)

23rd - City:          1 win, 3 draws (6 points)

24th Rotherham: 1 win, 1 draw (4 points).

 

We are - in effect, 22nd in the table, with no form, in free-fall, and incapable of winning (aside form a league 1 club in waiting). We cannot keep clean sheets; we cannot defend a lead. The confidence in the squad must be on the floor.

We must be giving other teams the biggest boost when they play us, as we are a total mess.

Bottom three come May:

Rotherham, City and Wigan.

:badmood:

Change the manager before Saturday and we have a slim chance.

As has been said elsewhere - I think it is too late already, and who would want it??

 

tfj

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Ivorguy said:

I am beginning seriously to worry about the possibility of a second relegation if everyone in a position of power at Ashton Gate remain so defiantly intransigent

:badmood:

I suppose the real doomsday would be Johnson staying on.

At league 1 level he has a chance of getting us back up. BUT.

IMHO with all his tinkering - and the fact we would have to rebuild from scratch, again, it would take 3 or 4 years to challenge.

Has SL really got that much attachment to Johnson he would put the club through this?

Johnson has shown he DOES NOT UNDERSTAND the Championship: he has proven it.

He can't manage as this level - who thought he ever could??

FFS.

:badmood:

 

@tfj  :protest:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

:badmood:

I suppose the real doomsday would be Johnson staying on.

At league 1 level he has a chance of getting us back up. BUT.

IMHO with all his tinkering - and the fact we would have to rebuild from scratch, again, it would take 3 or 4 years to challenge.

Has SL really got that much attachment to Johnson he would put the club through this?

Johnson has shown he DOES NOT UNDERSTAND the Championship: he has proven it.

He can't manage as this level - who thought he ever could??

FFS.

:badmood:

 

@tfj  :protest:

There would be no fans in the ground...This club really is going to shit!!1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

There had better be a press conference in Monday.

Just pay Pardew whatever he wants.

:pray:

 

 

tfj  :protest:

 

He's not going anywhere, although if by some miracle he is given the poke I'll be cracking open the champagne 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought if we beat Burton we would still be well and truly alive- up to yesterday I had a bit of cautious optimism still- not least as other sides around us had hard games as well.

Now I can't see how- with Blackburn having a game in hand, Wolves having 2- Forest pulling a 3-0 v Brighton out the bag, QPR winning- oh and our 2 6 pointers- Wigan and Blackburn both AWAY, we really had to win yesterday.

We didn't.

We're doomed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

STATS:

At this point in previous seasons in the Championship we were:

2015-16: 3 points ahead (finished 18th)

2012-13: 1 point ahead (finished... well)

2011-12: Same points (finished 20th)

2010-11: 10 points ahead (finished 15th)

 

Remaining:

Home (where we've won 71% of our points): 6

Away (where we've conceded at least one 94% of the time):4

 

Against (current) bottom half teams: 5

Against (current) top half teams: 5

 

W/D/L vs. (current) top half teams: 2/5/10

W/D/L vs. (current) bottom half teams: 5/1/9

 

Average Points Per Game for remaining teams: 1.41 vs. our 0.985

 

Did you get all that?

It's looking pretty grim IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to say I have got a lot less stressed since I moved in to the 'acceptance' stage. We are getting relegated, and will be playing Div 1 football next year.

On the basis it is hope that kills you in the end, I have just decided to accept what is happening and move on. Keeps me more mentally sane.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If LJ is still here on Tuesday, FFS, I can't see us getting any more than a point against Norwich.

One point at home will get us relegated FOR SURE, if we keep it up.

What disgusts me is getting draws at home would actually be an IMPROVEMENT!!!!

Draw at home / draw or lose away, and we will go down.

WE HAVE TO WIN GAMES: NOW.

It's too late IMHO, the most likely finishing position is either 22nd or 23rd: I'd have more confidence if I was a Wigan fan.

A mass protest / walk out is needed either at the Norwich game, or from that point on.

Should have happened weeks ago. Too many Happy Clappers, too many folk who think LJ is 'a nice bloke'.

The club is getting what it deserves (not the fans) - the club.

We have a league 1 / 2 mentality.

:badmood::badmood:

 

tfj  :protest:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:badmood:

Star-date 7th March - who cares what year.

Pre ******** Norwich.

Current form predicts 49 points needed for Championship survival, if Burton, Blackburn, and Wolves averages continue.

That's another 15 points for City.

:badmood:

15 points from the remaining 11 games, including tonights game: 1 win in the last 16.

:badmood:

Realistically, that's the four wins we have needed for several weeks now, and not won a game since Rotherham.

Most likely scenario: 4 wins and 3 draws from 11.

We have won 9 games from 35 so far this season.

:badmood:

 

tfj  :protest::badmood:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Star date 8th March.

:badmood:

Ditto pre-Norwich, with another game gone (at home) without a win.

:badmood:

We have needed four wins for weeks, and weeks go by without a win.

Gonna need four more wins, and a couple of draws i.e. near promotion form.

It is not going to happen - there is no sign of it happening.

:badmood:

In fact, we are in a worse position with Wigan winning, as they are chewing on our arses now.

Lose to them on Saturday - which is pretty likely, and we are going to be ******.

Special shout out to Lee Johnson for this opportunity.

:badmood:

 

 

tfj :protest:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Blackburn and Wolves both in action tonight.

Either or both pick up points and we are back in it again.

:badmood:

Wolves win they would be four points ahead of us still with a game in hand.

:badmood:

Blackburn win they go three points clear.

:badmood:

We can look forward to Huddersfield on Friday.

:badmood:

 

tfj  :protest::badmood:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

Blackburn and Wolves both in action tonight.

Either or both pick up points and we are back in it again.

:badmood:

Wolves win they would be four points ahead of us still with a game in hand.

:badmood:

Blackburn win they go three points clear.

:badmood:

We can look forward to Huddersfield on Friday.

:badmood:

 

tfj  :protest::badmood:

It's thoroughly depressing, only positive is if we lost Saturday we would have been up to our neck and still swallowing it as opposed to knee deep 

given he's a turd our situation is quiet apt

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Fiale said:

Try not to think of others games, we have no control over their results - we just have to win games and hope everything else works out around us, you will drive yourself mad otherwise.

Yep, I was quite normal with Cotts in charge, then along came young Lee

madman.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

Blackburn and Wolves both in action tonight.

Either or both pick up points and we are back in it again.

:badmood:

Wolves win they would be four points ahead of us still with a game in hand.

:badmood:

Blackburn win they go three points clear.

:badmood:

We can look forward to Huddersfield on Friday.

:badmood:

 

tfj  :protest::badmood:

....... I told you so.

:yes:

:badmood::badmood:

Hope we get something from the Huddersfield game on Friday, or we will be adrift come Saturday.

:badmood::badmood::badmood:

 

 

tfj :badmood:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Fiale said:

Try not to think of others games, we have no control over their results - we just have to win games and hope everything else works out around us, you will drive yourself mad otherwise.

No.

We need more points than them: they win, and it does not matter what we do: they have the points on the board - we do not.

:badmood:

 

tfj :badmood:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

No.

We need more points than them: they win, and it does not matter what we do: they have the points on the board - we do not.

:badmood:

 

tfj :badmood:

He's right, you know. Even Horace agrees. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

No.

We need more points than them: they win, and it does not matter what we do: they have the points on the board - we do not.

:badmood:

 

tfj :badmood:

 

I was going to repeat - you have no control and as I said, do not worry about it as it will drive you mad - but then I remembered who I am replying too !   :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Fiale said:

 

I was going to repeat - you have no control and as I said, do not worry about it as it will drive you mad - but then I remembered who I am replying too !   :P

Being depressed about it isn't the same as worrying.

Sorry to nit-pick.

:badmood:

 

tfj :badmood:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...