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Norwich, Derby, Wigan. ...........


Torbay_Red

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15 minutes ago, SARJ said:

I'll be interested to read this thread after we lose 4 nil on Friday in front of the whole nation.

You forgot to add that your golf buddy told you this and that there will be an important announcement at some undefined time

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47 minutes ago, Ivorguy said:

Soon no one will want to play us. The curse of Johnson is now across the whole Division

Opposition managers will be handing in their resignations and conceding the game prior to playing City if we carry on at this rate.

LJ's master plan is coming to fruition.

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In his book 'The Game of Our Lives' (a good read - albeit a bit dry - for anyone interested in a scholarly analysis of modern football) David Goldblatt says that the impact of changing a manager has been shown statistically as being on average +2.5 points.  He goes on to say "What evidence there is on the input of managers into team performance, suggests that nearly all the benefits come in the medium-to-long term and are most likely to be achieved by managers who have garnered sufficient length of service and experience...  Given this, the firing of managers is best understood as an act of ritual purification rather than a reasoned business strategy."  He also talks about "a mode of reporting and storytelling that makes [football managers] far more culpable than any statistical analysis would support".

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4 hours ago, Tipps69 said:

Reading the statement released by Wigan points towards what the problem is with the modern game!!

Joyce remit was to build for the long term future while keeping Wigan in the championship, so while he signs players for the future & who may come good in two or three years time, he has to keep a club up in a division higher than they were last year while having a distinctly smaller budget than the majority of the division despite still getting parachute payments for failure while in The Premier League a few years back.

He didn't even have the benefit of joining the club on equal terms with regards to league position as he'd come in after someone else's failure & he had to play catch up already.

And this, in my opinion is where City are doing things right, LJ was also brought in with the future plans of the club as a massive part of his remit & having spent a fair bit of his budget in fulfilling this part of the plan, the club have rightly stood by him so he may have the chance to see his future plans put into action (O'Dowda, Magnusson, Engvall, Brownhill & Lucic) being able to perform consistently & in a large proportion of the games instead of only being able to play as bit part players.

Joyce & McClaren both spent fairly heftily in the transfer market & whoever comes into replace them will also want to spend to replace the failing players already at the club as they aren't their players & we would have the same issue & it would cost another comparatively large amount for a new man to come in & to get his own players in that he trusts.

The problem will come though through the fact that anyone taking over any of these clubs (or ours included) won't trust that they'll have time to build for the future & then we'll find ourselves investing in thirty plus year-olds with no eye to the future or potential for any sell-on value (remember those days?) & that isn't a sustainable way for our club to be run.

I don't want our club to be one of those that has a new man in charge of team affairs two or three times a year because of those reasons stated above & also because in the future when we do decide for a new man at the helm, our list of possible candidates will consist of people with a history of failure & no interest in the future, only the here & now!!

LJ has brought in loads of players, and we have a solid two-place rise to show for i t. LJ/LJ and Ashton/Ashton/the clan in general bought too much youth in the Summer and had to peddle back on it in January - and so far it's brought us wins over Championship heavyweights including Wigan and Rotherham, who will both be playing League 1 football next season.

Of the players LJ has brought to the club, none are at ages where they need molly-coddling so they don't burn out, but are probably more in danger of a loss of confidence if they find themselves in and out of the line-up regardless of whether they've played well or badly.

We have a good playing squad on paper. I don't think whoever comes in to replace LJ, God forbid it should actually happen, would necessarily want to change much on the playing staff. Probably no more than LJ himself would, considering he'll have - at best - led them to a marginal Championship survival.

He's shown he can't get the best out of a talented bunch, who should be doing far better than we are regardless of their age, so why can't someone else have a go?

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1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

In his book 'The Game of Our Lives' (a good read - albeit a bit dry - for anyone interested in a scholarly analysis of modern football) David Goldblatt says that the impact of changing a manager has been shown statistically as being on average +2.5 points.  He goes on to say "What evidence there is on the input of managers into team performance, suggests that nearly all the benefits come in the medium-to-long term and are most likely to be achieved by managers who have garnered sufficient length of service and experience...  Given this, the firing of managers is best understood as an act of ritual purification rather than a reasoned business strategy."  He also talks about "a mode of reporting and storytelling that makes [football managers] far more culpable than any statistical analysis would support".

It's a very thought provoking read, and it's hard to disagree with much of what David Goldblatt says.

That said I think the key question in the case of LJ...debated at length on every other thread at the moment...is not so much whether in principle it's a good idea to stick with a manager for long enough for him to make a long term impact, which seems a good plan, but rather whether LJ has the capacity to manage at Championship level.

If you doubt his basic ability then sticking with him is daft. Instead we should look to replace him with someone who has the experience to build the club for the future, experience he lacks. Clearly at the moment some think he'll come good, others think he's had his chance.

My perspective is that I've yet to see anyone post any compelling argument that giving LJ longer will result in long term success. By contrast we've got months of evidence to suggest that he's out of his depth.

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1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

In his book 'The Game of Our Lives' (a good read - albeit a bit dry - for anyone interested in a scholarly analysis of modern football) David Goldblatt says that the impact of changing a manager has been shown statistically as being on average +2.5 points.  He goes on to say "What evidence there is on the input of managers into team performance, suggests that nearly all the benefits come in the medium-to-long term and are most likely to be achieved by managers who have garnered sufficient length of service and experience...  Given this, the firing of managers is best understood as an act of ritual purification rather than a reasoned business strategy."  He also talks about "a mode of reporting and storytelling that makes [football managers] far more culpable than any statistical analysis would support".

That's all very well but in my time supporting City i have never known a manager being so obviously out of his depth , tactically and in man management terms.

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6 hours ago, LondonBristolian said:

I really agree with the sentiment of this and I'm glad the club isn't being trigger-happy. At the time I've got what I feel are legitimate concerns over what we have seen this season in terms of whether LJ is being successful in building for the future.

The major concerns for me are:

a) I'm not sure LJ has identified a style of play that works best for the team and that we are building towards it.

b) I don't think I can name any players that have so far substantially developed and improved over the course of the season and are better players than when they arrived.

c) I've heard the rumours about LJ's interpersonal skills from enough different sources for me to fear there may be something in them. 

 

I agree I can see no improvement in any of our players, tactics or play-style that suggest he is or will become a great or even good manager/head coach.

Regarding style of play I feel after recruiting 17-19 players it should be the other way around. He should know the style of football he wants to play and recruited to suit it, not recruit then scrabble around for a style/tactic that then suits the players

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6 minutes ago, Fiale said:

I agree I can see no improvement in any of our players, tactics or play-style that suggest he is or will become a great or even good manager/head coach.

Regarding style of play I feel after recruiting 17-19 players it should be the other way around. He should know the style of football he wants to play and recruited to suit it, not recruit then scrabble around for a style/tactic that then suits the players

I get the feeling from all the reports and feedback on here that LJ has tried to prove how clever a manager he is/can be. He might have had a game plan/style/ideal formation but all too often he seems to have been more concerned with "outthinking" the opposition manager than focusing on playing to our strengths. 

In early games he got out of jail with second half substitutions that saved or won games, but the reason he was forced into those moves was because he set the team up badly at the outset.

There is no doubt in my mind that we have the players to compete well in this league. Unfortunately , with all the chops and changes to selection and formations all too often the 11 selected seem like strangers , with no real opportunity to build playing relationships and gain confidence with their team mates and with the plummet in for and results since November then all of that became even more difficult.

If we stay up, LJ stays in charge and we keep most of the current squad ( any one/all of the three being uncertain at the moment) then I hope that LJ learns some serious lessons from this season, or gets a mentor to point them out to him, so that he tries to find his best team and tries to keep playing them. If he wants to prove his tactical genius then do it  within individual games by making tactical or player changes in order to changer games in our favour , as opposed to making wholesale changes week to week.

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