Predicted Table

[underhanded]

2 hours ago, spudski said:

His work is generally very accurate, however you do get the odd fluctuation, where the stats don't link up with the results being achieved.

For example...Ipswich this season are still over achieving going by their stats.

Earlier in the season Brentford had awesome stats, the best in the league but were really struggling.

I suggested at the time that Brentford would still make the play offs. I got told by a few on here that there was no chance.

Now look at them...3 points off play offs and 4th best form over last 10 games.

The stats he uses generally work and are a good indicator.

Thought the same when we nicked a draw at their place. Their position in the table at that point really didn't represent the quality in that team. There are a LOT of good attacking teams pushing for promotion this year

[BCFC_Dan]

4 hours ago, spudski said:

His work is generally very accurate, however you do get the odd fluctuation, where the stats don't link up with the results being achieved.

For example...Ipswich this season are still over achieving going by their stats.

Earlier in the season Brentford had awesome stats, the best in the league but were really struggling.

I suggested at the time that Brentford would still make the play offs. I got told by a few on here that there was no chance.

Now look at them...3 points off play offs and 4th best form over last 10 games.

The stats he uses generally work and are a good indicator.

Based on the stats there was no way Reading should have been anywhere near the playoffs last season. This year they've regressed to the mean, as it were.

Conversely, even at the worst of times last season the XG stats had City down as a comfortably mid-table side, which is why I was always confident that things would improve and that it was worth sticking with Johnson.

The long term trend graph is interesting because it shows that we've improved this season both in terms of achievement vs XG and in the underlying figures. I think it's probably got us about right and a 50% chance of a top 6 finish is something most would have been delighted with back in August.

My own feeling is that we're slightly better than the model suggests and I think we have a better chance of a top 2 finish because our lack of striking options thus far has required us to score the perfect goal rather than playing the percentages a bit more and getting balls into the box. Having Diedhiou back (and hopefully Djuric too) should make the attack more productive relative to possession and see the attacking stats improve over the coming weeks.

[ExiledAjax]

6 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

The long term trend graph is interesting because it shows that we've improved this season both in terms of achievement vs XG and in the underlying figures. I think it's probably got us about right and a 50% chance of a top 6 finish is something most would have been delighted with back in August.

A very good point that we have actually improved - by about +0.25 goals per game - over last season.  If we lose out on promotion this year, and can engineer a similar level of improvement over the summer, the 2018/19 could be a truly memorable season.