The “overall progress” theory

[ChippenhamRed]

For a long time I defended LJ and the team on the basis of “overall progress”.

I don’t believe it any more.

It might be true in terms of league position. But, for me, teams that have truly progressed do so by moving to a consistently higher level of performance that brings about an improvement in results. By this definition, right now I can’t see that we are any better than we were this time last year. Would a team that really had “progressed” even be capable of such an extended period of inept performances, in particular away from home where we haven’t won since December?

I am no more confident about next season than I was this time last year about this season. Irrespective of the table, it doesn’t feel to me like we’re any closer to the PL than we were 12 months ago. That leads me to conclude that we have not really progressed at all.

[BobBobSuperBob]

2 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

For a long time I defended LJ and the team on the basis of “overall progress”.

I don’t believe it any more.

It might be true in terms of league position. But, for me, teams that have truly progressed do so by moving to a consistently higher level of performance that brings about an improvement in results. By this definition, right now I can’t see that we are any better than we were this time last year. Would a team that really had “progressed” even be capable of such an extended period of inept performances, in particular away from home where we haven’t won since December?

I am no more confident about next season than I was this time last year about this season. Irrespective of the table, it doesn’t feel to me like we’re any closer to the PL than we were 12 months ago. That leads me to conclude that we have not really progressed at all.

More and more starting to see through the bluff and bull

[Fordy62]

Can we have Nigel Clough?

[Spoons]

5 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Can we have Nigel Clough?

Rather have Brian Clough !

[Hellfire Corner]

2 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

 

 That leads me to conclude that we have not really progressed at all.

Season 16/17  54 points

Season 17/18  67 points (13 points improvement)

Continuing trend ———

Season 18/19  80 points (Play offs)

Season 19/20. 93 points  (Promotion)

[LondonBristolian]

I’ve said this on another thread but my view is that we have progressed. Our squad has more depth, I think we have  the nucleus for a decent set of players and I think we are well placed to establish ourselves in the Championship. On balance Johnson has done a decent but unspectacular job.

BUT it is looking very clear that things have been on a downward trajectory over recent months. It is not a disaster - we finished top half and have a promising squad of players - but it is pretty clear that the Management team are no longer getting the best out of the squad and that, unlike last season, they have not been able to turn it around.

I don’t think it is going to take a lot to turn things around at the club and get us back on track but I do think what it will need is fresh impetus at the top. The board need to take tough decisions to get things right for the club. Last season it was the right decision not to change manager but it does not mean the right time to change manager will never come and indeed I thinnit has come now. LJ should be thanked for some great memories this season. I think he genuinely cares about the club, I think he has done a better job overall than some give him credit for and I think he will be a good appointment elsewhere. But I think his time here should be up. I honesty believe the club have progressed but change is needed to keep that progress going.

[old_eastender]

5 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

I’ve said this on another thread but my view is that we have progressed. Our squad has more depth, I think we have  the nucleus for a decent set of players and I think we are well placed to establish ourselves in the Championship. On balance Johnson has done a decent but unspectacular job.

BUT it is looking very clear that things have been on a downward trajectory over recent months. It is not a disaster - we finished top half and have a promising squad of players - but it is pretty clear that the Management team are no longer getting the best out of the squad and that, unlike last season, they have not been able to turn it around.

I don’t think it is going to take a lot to turn things around at the club and get us back on track but I do think what it will need is fresh impetus at the top. The board need to take tough decisions to get things right for the club. Last season it was the right decision not to change manager but it does not mean the right time to change manager will never come and indeed I thinnit has come now. LJ should be thanked for some great memories this season. I think he genuinely cares about the club, I think he has done a better job overall than some give him credit for and I think he will be a good appointment elsewhere. But I think his time here should be up. I honesty believe the club have progressed but change is needed to keep that progress going.

I'll drink to that!

[...]

Championship games 2018:-

Won 4

Drawn 9

Lost 8

Points 21/63

[Phileas Fogg]

3 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

For a long time I defended LJ and the team on the basis of “overall progress”.

I don’t believe it any more.

It might be true in terms of league position. But, for me, teams that have truly progressed do so by moving to a consistently higher level of performance that brings about an improvement in results. By this definition, right now I can’t see that we are any better than we were this time last year. Would a team that really had “progressed” even be capable of such an extended period of inept performances, in particular away from home where we haven’t won since December?

I am no more confident about next season than I was this time last year about this season. Irrespective of the table, it doesn’t feel to me like we’re any closer to the PL than we were 12 months ago. That leads me to conclude that we have not really progressed at all.

I think Johnson probably is a good coach. He probably understands the game well. The way we are set up, in theory, should render attacking football and is hard to play against. I’m sure he has some very innovative ideas for training sessions. I can see what he’s trying to do with transfers. When it’s all working, it’s very effective and functions well.

I’m not convinced that Johnson is a good manager necessarily which requires a different skill set. Despite defending him many times since he arrived, I must admit I’ve been frustrated and flummoxed by his comments in the media. Singling out Magnússon, Moore.. talking about players ‘needing love’, his silly comments when we lost to Villa and many others.

We’ve seen us capitulate against poor teams despite being 3-0 up. We’ve seen him fail to manage talented, and sometimes difficult, players.. Tomlin, Kent, Leko (maybe even Diony). 

I like him and really want him to do well.. but when you see Warnock get Cardiff promoted despite placing 24th in so many statistical measures.. it makes me wonder whether being a good ‘manager’ is better at this level than being a good ‘coach’ and thus, whether Johnson has what it takes to progress us.

[Lord Northski]

Many have said that they would be happy with a mid-table finish at the end of the season. If we had been mid-table at Christmas would’ve been another worrying end to the season #wheelsfelloff

Was optimistic a year ago after the way we rallied towards the end of the season. 

Not so much now. 

[Ivorguy]

You can only judge a good manager, of anything, by how they cope when things don’t go well 

[BigTone]

1 hour ago, Spoons said:

Rather have Brian Clough !

I'll go and dig him up

[havanatopia]

3 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

I am no more confident about next season than I was this time last year about this season. Irrespective of the table, it doesn’t feel to me like we’re any closer to the PL than we were 12 months ago. That leads me to conclude that we have not really progressed at all.

I am the opposite and I agree with Northski .. less confident about next season than I was a year ago.

8 minutes ago, Lord Northski said:

Was optimistic a year ago after the way we rallied towards the end of the season. 

Not so much now. 

 

[Wanderingred]

After the last 4 months, any talk of progress is clutching at straws. We have a bloated squad full of average players that never even play, the core of Cotterill signings that carried the team through our good run are either ageing or about to leave, and our so called high tempo pressing game has fallen to bits.

A 3 month purple patch in 2 and a half years of pure drivel is not good enough. Give LJ enough time and he'll take us back to league 1.

[Andy082005]

1 hour ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

More and more starting to see through the bluff and bull

They certainly are. His time is running out

[ScottishRed]

5 minutes ago, Andy082005 said:

They certainly are. His time is running out

You have no idea how much I wish that was true...............

[BobBobSuperBob]

7 minutes ago, Andy082005 said:

They certainly are. His time is running out

I asked around 10/12 ST holders who sit around me today 

What’s your view about LJs position

The answers ranged from ‘Should have gone last year’

to the best (for LJ ) ‘I’d give him 12 games next year (One person)

Everyone else was Either should be gone already or should go now

The idea that anyone who doubts LJ on OTIB is out of touch with the real fan base is complete b******x

 

personally , I  don’t know Or havnt talked to any City fan away,  from here,  that believes in him

[MC RISK77]

Ok I will put my hand up I have been in the Johnson in camp but today I have changed and it has been coming since Sunderland.

not sure he has a plan b or can tactically affect a game, their 5 in midfield in the first half absolutely swamped us and he should have changed shape after the first goal as they were dominating possession.

also very concerned about recruitment and do not trust us to replace the obvious outgoings adequately.

he gets first 10 games of next season for me then any signs of a long relegation battle it should be the end I am sad to say 

[BobBobSuperBob]

32 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think Johnson probably is a good coach. He probably understands the game well. The way we are set up, in theory, should render attacking football and is hard to play against. I’m sure he has some very innovative ideas for training sessions. I can see what he’s trying to do with transfers. When it’s all working, it’s very effective and functions well.

I’m not convinced that Johnson is a good manager necessarily which requires a different skill set. Despite defending him many times since he arrived, I must admit I’ve been frustrated and flummoxed by his comments in the media. Singling our Magnússon, Moore.. talking about players ‘needing love’, his silly comments when we lost to Villa and many others.

We’ve seen us capitulate against poor teams despite being 3-0 up. We’ve seen him fail to manage talented, and sometimes difficult, players.. Tomlin, Kent, Leko (maybe even Diony). 

I like him and really want him to do well.. but when you see Warnock get Cardiff promoted despite placing 24th in so many statistical measures.. it makes me wonder whether being a good ‘manager’ is better at this level than being a good ‘coach’ and thus, whether Johnson has what it takes to progress us.

This is not being disparaging

 

But he would have been ideal as the Head Of Academy (And I’m totally genuine - he would)

[ChippenhamRed]

28 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

After the last 4 months, any talk of progress is clutching at straws. We have a bloated squad full of average players that never even play, the core of Cotterill signings that carried the team through our good run are either ageing or about to leave, and our so called high tempo pressing game has fallen to bits.

A 3 month purple patch in 2 and a half years of pure drivel is not good enough. Give LJ enough time and he'll take us back to league 1.

As per my original post I’m not exactly feeling positive towards LJ right now, but neither is it fair to say it’s only been a “3 month purple patch in 2 and a half years”. He did well to keep us up when he first arrived, we started and finished well last season, and the first half of this season (that’s 5 months by the way) was great. It’s feast and famine, but his overall record here as manager compares favourably against almost anyone in our history.

[Phileas Fogg]

8 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

This is not being disparaging

 

But he would have been ideal as the Head Of Academy (And I’m totally genuine - he would)

Agree, I think he’d be great in that sort of role. If you believe the rumours, so do Man City, who apparently wanted him in a similar role a few years ago.

I really want him to succeed, I just don’t know if he has the motivational abilities that other experienced managers clearly do. Can you really imagine the likes of McCarthy, Bruce or Warnock having consistently streaky runs of form? Experienced managers know how to get out of a rut. I don’t think Johnson does.

[BobBobSuperBob]

13 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

As per my original post I’m not exactly feeling positive towards LJ right now neither is it fair to say it’s only been a “3 month purple patch in 2 and a half years”. He did well to keep us up when he first arrived, we started and finished well last season, and the first half of this season (that’s 5 months by the way) was great. It’s feast and famine, but his overall record here as manager compares favourably against almost anyone in our history.

I’m afraid the purple patch for me came as a result of the injuries , particularly Diedhiou forcing us to play JP as a 10 and keep it on the floor

Few options in selection or tactics and I felt the players almost forged a siege mentality together

When his toys became available it all went wrong again tinker , fiddle , tinker 

He keeps wittering on about our ‘identity’

Anyone know ,or like to suggest what that actually is right now ????

Thpught I saw signs pre Xmas but realise it for what it was now

 

He wanted ‘eleven busy bees’ but then signs FD and MD and a multitude of widemen none of whom he actually seems to rate and brought FD back as soompnas he could (That’s not a slate on FD but ‘busy bee’ he ain’t)

[B block]

The whole progression theory simply doesn’t work en masse in Football it’s a myth, football clubs don’t work like other businesses, for a start the staff churn is enourmous, as a guide hospitality would have good churn if it was 15%. A football club per year will be about 50%

couple that with the shelf life of your playing staff  being at an extreme top end about 12 years and on average about 3 you can’t progress on the pitch and use it as a barometer for future progress like you can in other industries, as an upshot all the progress talk is smoke and mirrors and that’s worrying 

[Top Robin]

As a playing force the team is woeful at present and I don't believe that Johnson has the ability to turn that around. His signings have been really poor, his team selections bizarre and his decisions during the game are a joke. Nice guy but well out of his depth in a ruthless championship full of ex premier league players and experienced, clever managers.  Time for him to move on. 

[RedRidingHood]

Doesn't matter what we think.  It's what SL thinks that counts

[WirralRobin]

Does the sheer number of games we have expected the same core 7/8 players to play week in week out (two sometimes three times a week at times) not translate to being the main cause of the alarming reduction in form over the second half of the season?

Long term injuries to the likes of o'dowda, diedhoiu, djuric, Taylor, Pisano et al at such a key period in the season (most of these bang in form just prior to injury) + the strange reluctance to give players like eliasson a decent run meant we were not able to regularly refresh the side game to game straight off the back of that fantastic cup run meaning that the core of our squad just had nothing left to give physically over the last couple of months?

I get the whole they are professionals they shouldn't get tired arguement but the reality is we are competing for promotion with teams that have much deeper squads (with most having much more luck on the injury front than ourselves this year) so the number of mins played per player across the season will be well down on ours which when matches are won or lost by such tight margins must surely have an impact? Interested to get people's thoughts....

[Wanderingred]

36 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

As per my original post I’m not exactly feeling positive towards LJ right now, but neither is it fair to say it’s only been a “3 month purple patch in 2 and a half years”. He did well to keep us up when he first arrived, we started and finished well last season, and the first half of this season (that’s 5 months by the way) was great. It’s feast and famine, but his overall record here as manager compares favourably against almost anyone in our history.

No it isn't. August wasn't great by any means.. the Brentford and Millwall games were as bad as it gets. I'd say we started to look decent around mid September and then fell to bits after Christmas so that's just under 3 and a half months.

I'm not suggesting for a second that we should forget about that period and that Johnson shouldn't take some credit for it but if you do look at LJs record outside of that period, I'm sure it makes horrific reading.

[BobBobSuperBob]

3 minutes ago, WirralRobin said:

Does the sheer number of games we have expected the same core 7/8 players to play week in week out (two sometimes three times a week at times) not translate to being the main cause of the alarming reduction in form over the second half of the season? Long term injuries to the likes of o'dowda, diedhoiu, djuric, Taylor, Pisano et al at such a key period in the season (most of these bang in form just prior to injury) + the strange reluctance to give players like eliasson a decent run meant we were not able to regularly refresh the side game to game straight off the back of that fantastic cup run meaning that the core of our squad just had nothing left to give physically over the last couple of months? I get the whole they are professionals they shouldn't get tired arguement but the reality is we are competing for promotion with teams that have much deeper squads (with most having much more luck on the injury front than ourselves this year) so the number of mins played per player across the season will be well down on ours which when matches are won or lost by such tight margins must surely have an impact? Interested to get people's thoughts....

1 No

2 .....Now.....Breathe.....

[WirralRobin]

Haha sorry written in a bit of a rush before off for family meal!

[BobBobSuperBob]

3 minutes ago, WirralRobin said:

Haha sorry written in a bit of a rush before off for family meal!

All joking aside it would be interesting to compile the stats but My guess /inclination would be that a lot of players at a fair number of Clubs

 Millwall ,Sheff United ,amongst them have played the same players as much if not more than we have