A bad run doesn't mean the gaffer has to be lynched

[Davefevs]

Guess a run of 5 without a win doesn’t help, but here’s an alternate view for thought.

[Alessandro]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Glad you added this detail to your earlier response.

Its obviously gonna take a manager a bit of time to see the profit or loss of his own recruitment, because the players he’s brought in have to leave for it to be evaluated.

That too is simplistic, because although Reid wasn’t “his”, LJ was the one who converted him from a £250-500k (debate/discuss) midfielder to a £9m striker....so I would give him that....and fair play, that buys him allowance of some duds too.

Having said that, if we take this moment in time, would the following players pay LJ back a dividend?

• Diedhiou - £5.3m - dunno, tough one to start with.  Probably, just about!
• Baker - £3.5m - unlikely
• Webster - £3.5m + addons - yep
• Weimann - £2m - yep
• Eliasson - £1.8m - might do, but if a profit, a fairly small one
• O’Dowda - £1.2m - Yes, RoI International, But not as much as we might expect

Lets not forget Mags, who became an established international here, didn’t go for much more than we paid.  Suggests we overpaid for him.  Engvall, well documented!

I think it shows how valuations flex from time to time.  Baker at start of season would’ve been a profit.  Diedhiou too.  But form and position of club affects value.

We are not in a difficult financial position because of Flint, Reid and Bryan....but who is our next big-sell that keeps the wolf from the door?

1. Kelly

Thats it in my book.

O’Dowda and Brownhill might go for nice sums, but nowhere near Kelly or the 3 who went in the summer.  Not enough to recoup another £18m loss, like we had to this summer.

This is the balancing act that we need to understand.  Our future assets are not as sellable as the ones we had at the end of last season.  The conveyor belt is not as plenty.  That is a worry.

 

 

I think as I’ve said I imagine there are players we buy for “sell on value” and players we buy for the here and now.

Of the players you mentioned above, I imagine 4 of them came in with the expectation/hope they could add value - Eliasson, Famara, Webster and O’Dowda. 

Baker and Weimann are more ‘The here and nows’ - so in my opinion there is less pressure on them adding “sell on value”. As are Hunt and Watkins, so I think to put them in the ‘value added’ bracket is perhaps pointless. 

Back to those first 4:

1) Famara is in most danger of not being worth what we paid, but we know one season of 15+ goals could very quickly change that.

2) Eliasson has shown this season in bursts that he has the ability to absolutely repay his £1.8m. Taking into consideration the fact that last season he was an OTIB waste of money, where could he be in another years’ time? Potentially worth multi millions.

3) Webster - too soon to say. He absolutely had shown in moments the quality to follow in the path of other CB’s that have gone for multi, multi millions. Needs to stay fit and keep progressing.

4) O’Dowda - strange one for me. Should, could have done better. Shown glimpses but have injuries hindered him? I’d argue a fit O’Dowda has the attributes, his national team clearly feel the same. Again, another who could after a run of form could be worth plenty more than paid.

We can add Pack and Brownhill - both worth more than paid for.

This season is too soon to judge the likes of Mo and Adelakun. 

So the cynics list of just - Kelly.

Is by some other people opinions -

Kelly, Brownhill, Pack, Webster, Eliasson.....a few good games and add O’Dowda....a few goals and add Eisa...etc etc.

Eitherway my original point remains, not every player signed has to add value, as far as the club is concerned. Some will, some won’t. But one thing we’ve learned so far is 1) it takes a long time to judge if a player is going add value or not and 2) making predictions about progression, potential and value is (Bobby Reid) a fools game. It honesty wouldn’t surprise me if, with knee jerk buying in today’s market, following half a season of good form, any player in our squad could be worth multi £’s. 

[Davefevs]

Think your final sentence sums it up....a few games and our views could all change.  The joy of supporting City in the Championship 

[Alessandro]

Going back to this conversation of only Kelly being a player we can make money from.....

Time is showing that Eliasson’s value is surely increasing with every game, as is Webster’s. Matty Taylor, anyone?

Now we can could even add Max O’L to the conversation. 

Will be interesting to see where these guys are at in January and even the summer.