Cheers Lansdown

[Banjo Island]

Thanks for the reply pop you are clearley a very knowlegeable chap

[BS4 on Tour...]

11 hours ago, JBFC II said:

When have I done that? 

Would love to know as I honestly have no idea... 

On a post about Derrick Williams, you wrote that Blackburn fans don’t like/rate him because of a few comments on their forum...

[BS4 on Tour...]

11 hours ago, Spoons said:

Widely reported his wages are that and that whoever took him on loan would have to pay 100% of his wages plus a fee. 

Crazy money. 

I wouldn’t believe all of what you read in the papers....

[JBFC II]

44 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

On a post about Derrick Williams, you wrote that Blackburn fans don’t like/rate him because of a few comments on their forum...

Good memory, that must be 2/3 weeks back at least... 

And I don't quite see the similarity between getting a fans opinion on a player (which is normally pretty accurate) and getting a fans opinion on how much a player is on (which would be guesswork) 

[BS4 on Tour...]

10 minutes ago, JBFC II said:

Good memory, that must be 2/3 weeks back at least... 

And I don't quite see the similarity between getting a fans opinion on a player (which is normally pretty accurate) and getting a fans opinion on how much a player is on (which would be guesswork) 

I think fans’ opinions on players vary widely....I don’t believe a few comments on a forum is an accurate representation of a fanbase’s opinion....I know a couple of City fans who think Fammy is fantastic, I also know a few others who think he’s Sunday League standard....so which of those is ‘normally pretty accurate’ 

....and you’ve agreed with my posts above about players’ salaries....fans just guess, they don’t know, they tend to believe the guff that is reported in the red tops....

[JBFC II]

6 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

I think fans’ opinions on players vary widely....I don’t believe a few comments on a forum is an accurate representation of a fanbase’s opinion....I know a couple of City fans who think Fammy is fantastic, I also know a few others who think he’s Sunday League standard....so which of those is ‘normally pretty accurate’ 

....and you’ve agreed with my posts above about players’ salaries....fans just guess, they don’t know, they tend to believe the guff that is reported in the red tops....

Normally, when every single fan agrees that a player isn't good enough, that gives you an idea that the player may not be, as was the case with Williams. 

[Bryans Left Peg]

14 hours ago, BessexRED said:

The words of someone who doesn’t have a counter argument.

Heard the saying about arguing with stupid people?

[BS4 on Tour...]

25 minutes ago, JBFC II said:

Normally, when every single fan agrees that a player isn't good enough, that gives you an idea that the player may not be, as was the case with Williams. 

On a forum? That’s just the opinions of a tiny, tiny, tiny % of the fanbase.....so not an accurate representation of the opinion of ‘every single fan’

[JBFC II]

2 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

On a forum? That’s just the opinions of a tiny, tiny, tiny % of the fanbase.....so not an accurate representation of the opinion of ‘every single fan’

You would imagine that if every fan on a forum agrees that a player isn't good enough, that would represent the majority, if not all of the fan bases view though? 

[Spike]

22 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

We don't have to sell any of the last 3 that's my point because of the business done this season- Kalas and Da Silva are less in our control, but hopefully Da Silva will like what he has seen here and the one I prize above all in terms of the incoming signings would be Kalas, but he maybe the hardest to obtain. O'Dowda maybe one we take a good bid for, but the year option taken up will give us a bit of time.

We don't have to accept, but this is modern football, if a player gets an offer they want to accept we can say no but that can leave us with an unhappy player which has a major negative impact. 

With Brownhill we all know him and O'Dowda are very close friends, if O'Dowda gets the move he wants and tells his mate how great his new place is, how much more money he has etc that can be very leading. 

Football isn't as simple as it used to be, contracts still matter but ultimately we can't afford to keep players who just don't want to play for us as punishment. 

I'm not saying this will happen but if Kalas, Dasilva and Palmer all go back and we lose O'Dowda and maybe one or two others that's a lot of talent to replace. This club isn't what we'd like to think it is, it's now a selling to make profit club, it's no longer just about getting promotion. 

I guess we'll see where we are come the end of the season but I think we could have another rebuild on our hands.

[Robin1988]

Those unhappy we haven't had the luxury of spending more, as I'm sure we'd all enjoy, must have had a momentary lapse of memory about why we can't afford Madine or anyone of his ilk at the moment.

We  are  on  the  verge  of  breaching  FFP.

For those of us not au fait with everything OTIB (to our detriment), who is Jordan?

[BessexRED]

16 minutes ago, Robin1988 said:

Those unhappy we haven't had the luxury of spending more, as I'm sure we'd all enjoy, must have had a momentary lapse of memory about why we can't afford Madine or anyone of his ilk at the moment.

We  are  on  the  verge  of  breaching  FFP.

For those of us not au fait with everything OTIB (to our detriment), who is Jordan?

I am Kachina.

Also, unless you know more about the clubs finances than LJ, JL or MA do then you are wrong. I can only assume you didn't watch the Q&A that took place on social media earlier this month as they said we're in a great position in regards to FFP.

[Spike]

6 minutes ago, BessexRED said:

I am Kachina.

Also, unless you know more about the clubs finances than LJ, JL or MA do then you are wrong. I can only assume you didn't watch the Q&A that took place on social media earlier this month as they said we're in a great position in regards to FFP.

Having lost £9m last season I can see how he may think we're in trouble with FFP but this season we've made over £16m in transfer fees alone. 

@Robin1988

I know there is a lot more to FFP but SL has put a lot of work into making this club make money for itself, the idea that we're close to breaking FFP when we're talking about trying to get O'Dowda to stay and agreeing a fee for Dasilva is nonsensical. If we were really in that poor of a position we'd be looking to sell more, not hold onto current players and secure new ones. 

As Bessex said, the club has made it clear that we're in good standing, the only reason we're not splashing the cash is because that's not how the club is being run now. Sensible investments over gambles is very much the play of the club which in some cases is hugely frustrating because even the clubs that have made it have had to take the odd gamble. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

42 minutes ago, Robin1988 said:

Those unhappy we haven't had the luxury of spending more, as I'm sure we'd all enjoy, must have had a momentary lapse of memory about why we can't afford Madine or anyone of his ilk at the moment.

We  are  on  the  verge  of  breaching  FFP.

For those of us not au fait with everything OTIB (to our detriment), who is Jordan?

IMO- We were on the verge of breaching FFP- now I think we have a bit of wriggle room because of the restructuring this season. Maybe Assombalonga would have been unrealistic on loan but theoretically it could have been done maybe. Certainly had we kept hold of Flint,  Bryan, Reid plus Steele, Magnússon, and Djuric then even with no signings this summer, FFP would have been well and truly breached. I know not all were first teamers but they were a mix of pivotal and good squad players-but moving them on helped undoubtedly with the balance sheet. Profit on transfers, reduced wages (we'll have to see on that one) and reduced amortisation all contribute. Don't forget too, Diony, Kent and Woodrow all went back from whence they came and Leko half season loan. Mind you, loans this year...O'Neil off the balance sheet too- barely played last season but his wages were decent.

@Spike Lost £9m last season?

[Robin1988]

Guys, do yourselves a favour and look at the club’s accounts.

Kachina you yourself quoted Tweets from the same guy who has shown how we were within our FFP allowances by only a couple of million last summer. Why do you think we made comfortably over £20m in player sales last summer yet spent about half that?

Spike, the cost of any contract is spread over it’s duration in accounts. And DaSilva will not join us until next season, if he does sign. It’s not “nonsensical”, it’s a straight fact.

@Mr Popodopolous Assombalonga is on huge money. Middlesbrough spent nearly 15m on him and are still receiving parachute payments.

I’ve given LJ plenty of stick in the last couple of years but people sooner or later need to realise where we are. We aren’t even in the same ball park as first-teamers at clubs who’ve recently been in the PL.

[Mr Popodopolous]

@Robin1988 I believe according to figures quoted on here, Assombalonga loan for half season- @Kid in the Riot a while ago gave a projected cost of £3.5m- that's all costs, i.e. wages + loan fee. A big hit in one go of course, but based on the sales and the fact he (and his wages) likely wouldn't have been here next season it may have been feasible. I've been trying to calculate our FFP position for a while now based on amortisation etc, i.e. this seasons likely losses with the last 2 real losses.

[BessexRED]

4 minutes ago, Robin1988 said:

Guys, do yourselves a favour and look at the club’s accounts.

Kachina you yourself quoted Tweets from the same guy who has shown how we were within our FFP allowances by only a couple of million last summer. Why do you think we made comfortably over £20m in player sales last summer yet spent about half that?

Spike, the cost of any contract is spread over it’s duration in accounts. And DaSilva will not join us until next season, if he does sign. It’s not “nonsensical”, it’s a straight fact.

@Mr Popodopolous Assombalonga is on huge money. Middlesbrough spent nearly 15m on him and are still receiving parachute payments.

I’ve given LJ plenty of stick in the last couple of years but people sooner or later need to realise where we are. We aren’t even in the same ball park as first-teamers at clubs who’ve recently been in the PL.

You've just answered your own question for me. The fella I quoted looked into our accounts from last season, I don't think anybody disputed that we may have been close to the limit going into the summer but we made healthy profit in the summer and as things stand the club are sitting quite prettily by all accounts.

It's worth taking into account that sometimes clubs (like Derby this summer for example) let on that they have less than they actually do as a bargaining tool, there would be no objective to Ashton and Lansdown publicly saying we're in a good position FFP wise because it would cause fan unrest if we were to tighten the purse strings, so to speak.

[Robin1988]

14 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

@Robin1988 I believe according to figures quoted on here, Assombalonga loan for half season- @Kid in the Riot a while ago gave a projected cost of £3.5m- that's all costs, i.e. wages + loan fee. A big hit in one go of course, but based on the sales and the fact he (and his wages) likely wouldn't have been here next season it may have been feasible. I've been trying to calculate our FFP position for a while now based on amortisation etc, i.e. this seasons likely losses with the last 2 real losses.

Fair play for working that all out and @Kid in the Riot but if even then it's still 'may have been feasible' can you understand why the club didn't go for it?

13 minutes ago, BessexRED said:

You've just answered your own question for me. The fella I quoted looked into our accounts from last season, I don't think anybody disputed that we may have been close to the limit going into the summer but we made healthy profit in the summer and as things stand the club are sitting quite prettily by all accounts.

It's worth taking into account that sometimes clubs (like Derby this summer for example) let on that they have less than they actually do as a bargaining tool, there would be no objective to Ashton and Lansdown publicly saying we're in a good position FFP wise because it would cause fan unrest if we were to tighten the purse strings, so to speak.

Facts really aren't a strongpoint are they Kachina, no-one would have disputed it because it's down on paper in black and white, although if we do lie on our accounts as you suggest that would explain it. We still cannot afford to make a loss around half of what we lost last season if we don't want to come close to the line again, and even if we did push it to that degree, it would give us no wiggle-room (again) next season.

[BessexRED]

7 minutes ago, Robin1988 said:

Fair play for working that all out and @Kid in the Riot but if even then it's still 'may have been feasible' can you understand why the club didn't go for it?

Facts really aren't a strongpoint are they Kachina, no-one would have disputed it because it's down on paper in black and white, although if we do lie on our accounts as you suggest that would explain it. We still cannot afford to make a loss around half of what we lost last season if we don't want to come close to the line again, and even if we did push it to that degree, it would give us no wiggle-room (again) next season.

Big whoosh re: Kachina,

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, Robin1988 said:

Fair play for working that all out and @Kid in the Riot but if even then it's still 'may have been feasible' can you understand why the club didn't go for it?

Facts really aren't a strongpoint are they Kachina, no-one would have disputed it because it's down on paper in black and white, although if we do lie on our accounts as you suggest that would explain it. We still cannot afford to make a loss around half of what we lost last season if we don't want to come close to the line again, and even if we did push it to that degree, it would give us no wiggle-room (again) next season.

I can understand it (and not yet worked it out fully, still an ongoing estimation!) but if it may have been feasible I hope we don't regret it. Certainly not criticising the club though.

[Alessandro]

22 hours ago, 29AR said:

The trouble is BS3 this is not a new issue. I totally agree and acknowledge strikers are hot property and good ones are like 4-leaf clovers. However, one year ago we were looking at Diony, 2 years ago it was Matty Taylor, this summer it was Eisa. 3 windows we have been looking for that elusive striker. Before that we had Tammy as a stopgap. We make a lot of use of scouts, of analysts etc, it probably is getting to the point that it's not (quite) good enough to say 'strikers are hard to find'. We've been looking long enough, hard enough and wide enough and we knew this season we had to try to replace Reid's goals. We should have found one that ticks the boxes by now who we were willing to punt on and who was willing to come. 

I can't come up with a name for January, but I reckon if I had been looking for several seasons I probably would have had a dossier on quite a few I could have pointed to and said that's the one. 

One other thing to bear in mind also is that the more time we dither and dather, the higher the cost will ultimately be. Wage and transfer fee inflation show no signs of slowing down. What a 20 goal a season striker costs in 2019 will probably be a lot less than the cost in 2021. 

The club have come up with a whole load of names - but it's one thing having a dossier for a player, it's another to get him to sign - especially when the calibre of player we're looking at will be in huge demand and we have clubs in and around us who are willing and able to pay £10k, £20k more per week than us. Let's not forget the higher we get, the harder it gets.

We actually have a decent track record of "20 goal a season" forwards - this is the first season for a while we've not had one, but Fam may well get up to around 15:

13/14 Baldock

14/15 Wilbs

15/16 Kodj

16/17 Tammy

17/18 Bobby

 

[Ivorguy]

1 hour ago, Alessandro said:

The club have come up with a whole load of names - but it's one thing having a dossier for a player, it's another to get him to sign - especially when the calibre of player we're looking at will be in huge demand and we have clubs in and around us who are willing and able to pay £10k, £20k more per week than us. Let's not forget the higher we get, the harder it gets.

We actually have a decent track record of "20 goal a season" forwards - this is the first season for a while we've not had one, but Fam may well get up to around 15:

13/14 Baldock

14/15 Wilbs

15/16 Kodj

16/17 Tammy

17/18 Bobby

 

Am I correct in saying none of those were with us the following season?  

If correct, then that is certainly a problem to be addressed as this season shows

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Alessandro said:

The club have come up with a whole load of names - but it's one thing having a dossier for a player, it's another to get him to sign - especially when the calibre of player we're looking at will be in huge demand and we have clubs in and around us who are willing and able to pay £10k, £20k more per week than us. Let's not forget the higher we get, the harder it gets.

We actually have a decent track record of "20 goal a season" forwards - this is the first season for a while we've not had one, but Fam may well get up to around 15:

13/14 Baldock

14/15 Wilbs

15/16 Kodj

16/17 Tammy

17/18 Bobby

 

I'm merely highlighting the short-termism in the club's apparent approach. The market won't crash, wage and transfer fee inflation is only going to continue and so the true cost of a signing will continue to rise. Britt Assombalonga today will be less than what he'll cost in 2 years etc. 

I mean you only have to look at Jack Marriott, what he cost, for a player with a history no higher than League One and no real consistency. The prices of Hogan, Gayle and relative wages from a few years ago which looked eyewatering, look cheap now. 

[InCyder]

22 minutes ago, Ivorguy said:

Am I correct in saying none of those were with us the following season?  

If correct, then that is certainly a problem to be addressed as this season shows

Only Wilbs.

Not quite as influential on the pitch for the remainder of his time with us but he certainly was off it. 

[Major Isewater]

On 27/02/2019 at 08:14, JonDolman said:

We tried to sign Hogan, and sounds like we tried to sign others at the beginning of the window as LJ said something like 'it was clear early on that strikers we wanted were not available.' One of these could well have been Assombalonga who we were rumoured to be after. So we were after strikers so Lansdown was not stopping us from signing one.

If the money was good enough then we would , no doubt, have landed at least one of our targets .

Clearly , SL had his account’s head on and not the ‘ dreaming of the Prem ‘ one .

 

[Robin1988]

3 hours ago, BessexRED said:

Big whoosh re: Kachina,

Well don’t I feel like a fool now

[Alessandro]

3 hours ago, Ivorguy said:

Am I correct in saying none of those were with us the following season?  

If correct, then that is certainly a problem to be addressed as this season shows

Not sure that is much a problem as it is a result of our current 'position' as a club. The approach now is to sell those players that we add value to, to help develop the squad as a whole. Forwards generally command the highest fees and the greatest rises in value, so unsurprising we see more movement in that area. 

The list was does highlight though how we have, until this season, managed to replace an outgoing 20 goal a season striker for several years in a row.

2 hours ago, 29AR said:

I'm merely highlighting the short-termism in the club's apparent approach. The market won't crash, wage and transfer fee inflation is only going to continue and so the true cost of a signing will continue to rise. Britt Assombalonga today will be less than what he'll cost in 2 years etc. 

I mean you only have to look at Jack Marriott, what he cost, for a player with a history no higher than League One and no real consistency. The prices of Hogan, Gayle and relative wages from a few years ago which looked eyewatering, look cheap now. 

I wouldn't call the clubs approach short-termism at all. The opposite in fact. Semenyo, Eisa, Adelakun Walsh, Brownhill, COD, Eliasson, Kelly, Webster, Bakinson, O'Leary etc etc - all bought in or developed with the future in mind, both in terms of squad and transfer revenue.

I don't understand the relevance of your point about player values vs. the clubs strategy to sign a striker. From what I can see, we are constantly looking for the next big thing, Taylor or Eisa, someone cheaper who we can develop. But so is EVERYONE else = competition. 

And your point slightly contradicts itself in my opinion - as I say you don't know who the club has identified, and tried to sign, only for them to accept offers of "eyewatering" wages elsewhere, as you say.

Our wages structure is pretty rigid and sensible, a limit of around 20k a week. The names people band around are unfortunately pie in the sky, why? Because the likes of Hogan reportedly earn £35kpw - Gayle £40kpw - Assombalonga - £40kpw (60k if they go up). 

Jack Marriott another name you mentioned - we were in for by all accounts and simply got outbid. I'm sure we'd have made him our highest paid player, but first we had to outbid Derby and we couldn't, hence going for Eisa - a greater, but cheaper unproven gamble.

Is that short-term thinking or long term thinking? Or simply spending what we can afford to spend? There will be those who say, just spend that bit more Lansdown, it will pay off (with huge crossed fingers said player isn't a multimillion pound flop) or there will be those fans, like myself, who think spending within our means, not gambling the clubs future 'all on red' is actually the very opposite of short term thinking.

EDIT - Oh and FFP. Let's not forget that, something every single football fan should understand when talking about transfers.

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

Not sure that is much a problem as it is a result of our current 'position' as a club. The approach now is to sell those players that we add value to, to help develop the squad as a whole. Forwards generally command the highest fees and the greatest rises in value, so unsurprising we see more movement in that area. 

The list was does highlight though how we have, until this season, managed to replace an outgoing 20 goal a season striker for several years in a row.

I wouldn't call the clubs approach short-termism at all. The opposite in fact. Semenyo, Eisa, Adelakun Walsh, Brownhill, COD, Eliasson, Kelly, Webster, Bakinson, O'Leary etc etc - all bought in or developed with the future in mind, both in terms of squad and transfer revenue.

I don't understand the relevance of your point about player values vs. the clubs strategy to sign a striker. From what I can see, we are constantly looking for the next big thing, Taylor or Eisa, someone cheaper who we can develop. But so is EVERYONE else = competition. 

And your point slightly contradicts itself in my opinion - as I say you don't know who the club has identified, and tried to sign, only for them to accept offers of "eyewatering" wages elsewhere, as you say.

Our wages structure is pretty rigid and sensible, a limit of around 20k a week. The names people band around are unfortunately pie in the sky, why? Because the likes of Hogan reportedly earn £35kpw - Gayle £40kpw - Assombalonga - £40kpw (60k if they go up). 

Jack Marriott another name you mentioned - we were in for by all accounts and simply got outbid. I'm sure we'd have made him our highest paid player, but first we had to outbid Derby and we couldn't, hence going for Eisa - a greater, but cheaper unproven gamble.

Is that short-term thinking or long term thinking? Or simply spending what we can afford to spend? There will be those who say, just spend that bit more Lansdown, it will pay off (with huge crossed fingers said player isn't a multimillion pound flop) or there will be those fans, like myself, who think spending within our means, not gambling the clubs future 'all on red' is actually the very opposite of short term thinking.

EDIT - Oh and FFP. Let's not forget that, something every single football fan should understand when talking about transfers.

The club's approach is a bit like a few years ago saying I'm not going to buy a house because house prices are at an all time high, even though there was no correction in sight. 

It is abundantly clear we aren't solely looking for the 'next big thing'. LJ talks about experience, someone to hit the ground running, we were supposedly looking at BA, Hogan... these aren't 'next big things' but established players. 

I'd say it is short termism but at the same time I'm not at any point ever suggesting 'all on red' etc. Making hay whilst the sun shines is different.

It really grinds my gears when people ignore that players are investments, even at the top end. So and so cost £9m and £Xpw… 'Point being?' is my response.

If you expect the player to depreciate in value, he isn't the right one to buy. I don't put shares in my ISA I expect to go down in value. Just because a player isn't the right side of 22 doesn't mean he's topped out on value. We could have spent all that money and all those wages on Dwight Gayle, we'd have been laughing in the end. Probably made more than we'd make on O'Dowda etc. Look at Webster, £6m, we will make a good profit on him. 

[Eastendboy1965]

On 26/02/2019 at 23:25, Robbored said:

You have absolutely no idea about SLs sustainability and stability strategy, have you?

Unfortunately you’re not on your own............

You are easily convinced mate... 

[Alessandro]

2 hours ago, 29AR said:

The club's approach is a bit like a few years ago saying I'm not going to buy a house because house prices are at an all time high, even though there was no correction in sight. 

I personally think you're over simplifying the process and your analogies of house prices and ISA's couldn't be any further away from the reality of signing a human being to play football.

It is abundantly clear we aren't solely looking for the 'next big thing'. LJ talks about experience, someone to hit the ground running, we were supposedly looking at BA, Hogan... these aren't 'next big things' but established players. 

So you'd agree we have a long term strategy for the majority of our transfers? Of course there need to be some established signings from time to time. You can have both. 

I'd say it is short termism but at the same time I'm not at any point ever suggesting 'all on red' etc. Making hay whilst the sun shines is different.

So you're saying it's short termism, yet you're frustrated the club didn't go out and splash out on a big name like Gayle (below) in Jan?! You're contradicting yourself here. Making a big investment on a player in football is NOT a secure long term strategy..see next...

It really grinds my gears when people ignore that players are investments, even at the top end. So and so cost £9m and £Xpw… 'Point being?' is my response.

The problem with your argument is that players aren't always an investment.

If you expect the player to depreciate in value, he isn't the right one to buy. I don't put shares in my ISA I expect to go down in value. Just because a player isn't the right side of 22 doesn't mean he's topped out on value. We could have spent all that money and all those wages on Dwight Gayle, we'd have been laughing in the end. Probably made more than we'd make on O'Dowda etc. Look at Webster, £6m, we will make a good profit on him. 

Even with the best planning and research or player pedigree - there are no guarantees, so it's not as simply as deciding beforehand if they'll depreciate in value or not.

For example, the type of players you're talking about: Kodjia - Hogan and McCormack. All players signed by Villa and all players who you'd think would either A) Get you promoted B) Go up in value.  £35m + worth of signings. Not one has got Villa up and they will make a loss on Hogan and McCormack and I doubt anyone will pay more than £11m for Kodjia now. 

Villa now have short and long term financial issues because of the exact strategy you're suggesting - throwing money, hoping for the best, making hay while the sun shines. Whatever phrase you want to use. It's always a gamble. Great if it comes off - not so if it doesn't. 

What we are doing is making a budget, based around FFP and our revenue and sticking to that.