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Super computer prediction.


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I'm interested in why our offensive rating (number of goals we'd be expected to score against an average team) is so low, when we've scored the most goals outside of the top 6. Maybe as we're beating the bottom teams consistently that's skewed our stats a bit?

We are still out performing our strength though, which they calculate as the 4th worst in the division. It's based off previous seasons calculated strength (67%) and the value from transfermarkt (33%) it looks like - makes sense it's so low then.

At the start of the year they had as relegated, so we're out performing their model so far.

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21 minutes ago, IAmNick said:

I'm interested in why our offensive rating (number of goals we'd be expected to score against an average team) is so low, when we've scored the most goals outside of the top 6. Maybe as we're beating the bottom teams consistently that's skewed our stats a bit?

We are still out performing our strength though, which they calculate as the 4th worst in the division. It's based off previous seasons calculated strength (67%) and the value from transfermarkt (33%) it looks like - makes sense it's so low then.

At the start of the year they had as relegated, so we're out performing their model so far.

Beginning the season predicting us to be relegated was pretty fair if you based it purely on 2020/21s numbers. We were comfortably the worst team in the division from October onwards.

The only reason I had us 17th on 53 points was because although I expected us to be inconsistent, I thought that soft factors like Pearson, player contract changes, and other minor things that a computer algorithm won't factor in would lift us above the true dross at the bottom.

We've been trending towards the low 50s for a while now and it's looking like that's where we are going to land.

 

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4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Beginning the season predicting us to be relegated was pretty fair if you based it purely on 2020/21s numbers. We were comfortably the worst team in the division from October onwards.

The only reason I had us 17th on 53 points was because although I expected us to be inconsistent, I thought that soft factors like Pearson, player contract changes, and other minor things that a computer algorithm won't factor in would lift us above the true dross at the bottom.

We've been trending towards the low 50s for a while now and it's looking like that's where we are going to land.

 

I had 57 points in my results prediction league.  Probably 3-6 points too high.  We’ve had better player availability than last season, but still enough to not be able to field our strongest eleven more than a couple of times.  That’s hit us, and hit consistency.

I’d like to see us get a point a game for the remaining 14, and break 50.

I honestly couldn’t care less that the bottom 4 might be miles adrift…and that’s the only reason we are safe.  Toughski Shitski to them as they in Russia.

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1% chance of relegation (and <1% chance of the playoffs) sounds about right to be honest. I'm gonna start settling into enjoying the business end of the Champions League, the culmination of the FA Cup and the like. I'll still be watching us week in week out of course, but it's more about seeing how players develop and hopefully celebrating the odd good result. 

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6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I had 57 points in my results prediction league.  Probably 3-6 points too high.  We’ve had better player availability than last season, but still enough to not be able to field our strongest eleven more than a couple of times.  That’s hit us, and hit consistency.

I’d like to see us get a point a game for the remaining 14, and break 50.

I honestly couldn’t care less that the bottom 4 might be miles adrift…and that’s the only reason we are safe.  Toughski Shitski to them as they in Russia.

Yeh, 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses is about what I'd exepect from here. That would give us 15 more, landing on 52.

At the bottom...well really it's one of thsoe seasons where 4 should be relegated.

 

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1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh, 4 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses is about what I'd exepect from here. That would give us 15 more, landing on 52.

At the bottom...well really it's one of thsoe seasons where 4 should be relegated.

 

 

But if it was 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses we get the 55 points I predicted before the season started and I shall proclaim myself King of the World.

All we need is for the entire Boro squad to catch Lassa Fever this week. I mean them no harm. Just a mild bit of Lassa-ing. A vanilla epidemic.

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3 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

 

But if it was 5 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses we get the 55 points I predicted before the season started and I shall proclaim myself King of the World.

All we need is for the entire Boro squad to catch Lassa Fever this week. I mean them no harm. Just a mild bit of Lassa-ing. A vanilla epidemic.

Yeh and I need 16 to hit the 53 that I went for in @Nogbad the Bad's predictor game.

So really I want 5 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses. Or 7 wins,  7 losses and a 5 point deduction because Nige punches Vyner at some point.

Permutations. 

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