Alex Scott - £25m to Bournemouth- Confirmed

[Sir Geoff]

13 hours ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

I sort of agree with all of that, but wonder whether AS would be happy ‘not getting much game time for a season or two’.

Somehow, I just can’t see it, which brings me back to my desire to see him stay here for another season, at the end of which he may have to decide for which Premier League team he wishes to play.

Manchester City or the City that introduced him to the wider footballing world.

Cole Palmer seemed pretty happy on Saturday night with a Champions League medal round his neck.

[ScottishRed]

2 hours ago, BetterRedthanBlue said:

I'd say for West Ham it all depends on Declan Rice if he does go as many suspect I think they'll be in for him.

I do think Man City are keeping an eye on it but their hands are tied with the 115 charges. Spurs may step up their interest given they are not going to get Maddison (heading to Newcastle supposedly). Wolves can't afford it. Newcastle won't need him. I think there are definitely a few interes clubs we don't know about

Not sure how Man City’s hands are tied. They face charges but they are currently under no transfer restrictions.

As an aside, I read yesterday that their revenue from winning the CL was £180m in total.

[BetterRedthanBlue]

3 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

Not sure how Man City’s hands are tied. They face charges but they are currently under no transfer restrictions.

As an aside, I read yesterday that their revenue from winning the CL was £180m in total.

We don't know what the charges will amount to. They could be placed under am embargo which would ban them from registering anyone they signed in the summer it's just a bit of a cloud over their heads at the moment.

I personally think Man City and Pep would be the best place for him just look at how he dealt with Foden.

[Silvio Dante]

13 minutes ago, ScottishRed said:

Agreed. That is part of my thought process. If Pep sees Alex as potentially part of that next generation it would be a great move for him.

 

11 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

Yep, Pep, undeniably improves players, often not seen until their second season under him.

The bit that’s being missed here is that Pep has confirmed he’s only doing two more years at Man City. If AS did move there for Pep (in part) then he’s looking at season one on the sidelines and then in season two how much will Pep want to integrate youngsters and how much will he just want to win for a legacy?

Peps long term plan makes Man City a far less attractive option for Alex I’d say. He could quite easily waste two years up there.

[Mr Popodopolous]

33 minutes ago, hinsleburg said:

I know of at least one very interested club that hasn't been mentioned in the press as of yet. Whether or not a formal bid materialises remains to be seen but more clubs are putting feelers out there for him.

Gut feel with Scott is he stays this summer, I'm not sure people will be willing to pay what we want currently. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays for now but then there be a lot more interest in January. 

The January window is a weird one, but if he's playing well a club may gamble to get him before a 'bidding war' in the summer.

Do you know if price is a sticking point for said club? Seen it a few times in media reports and fans of said clubs or some fans of said clubs saying "Hmm, £25m a bit steep" etc.

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 hours ago, GrahamC said:

They do need to sell, but Ruben Neves would probably cover that on his own.

Lopetegui said in his recent conversation with their board that he accepts the FFP situation is difficult so wants to sign “young, Championship players” fairly obvious who he has in mind.

Ah yeah £50m hole can be taken a raw ways.

It could mean on track to fail by £50m or it could mean needing a £50m transfer profit. If it is the former then that would need to be filled just to get back to parity then thereafter £1 in £1 out kinda thing.

Also seen it suggested that they won't be going for fees of £25m this summer but it's still early. Plenty can happen.

[JoeAman08]

I am pretty relaxed about AS. Ask 25m maybe go as low as 22m. If not, we get another season of him. We’d still possibly fetch 12-15m for him next summer if he has a good season again. 25m helps more but don’t think FFP is much of an issue anymore. So 8 10 12 15 next summer will still go quite a ways. We don’t seem to be a club that will push FFP to the limit going forward anyway. 
 

I think if he can take another step forward in his game, then we can be a top 6 contender this season with the current squad(another 1-2 in as well). It may be more worth it to us having him play. 

[hinsleburg]

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Do you know if price is a sticking point for said club? Seen it a few times in media reports and fans of said clubs or some fans of said clubs saying "Hmm, £25m a bit steep" etc.

Sadly I do not!

I think it's the structure of the deal that is making clubs wary at the moment. We want 'x' amount plus add on's whereas I think post COVID clubs are relying more and more on add ons to finance deals over a longer period of time. If he goes this summer it'll be on terms we are happy with and unless Scott throws toys out (unlikely) we won't sell for the sake of selling

[slartibartfast]

49 minutes ago, hinsleburg said:

I know of at least one very interested club that hasn't been mentioned in the press as of yet. Whether or not a formal bid materialises remains to be seen but more clubs are putting feelers out there for him.

Gut feel with Scott is he stays this summer, I'm not sure people will be willing to pay what we want currently. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays for now but then there be a lot more interest in January. 

The January window is a weird one, but if he's playing well a club may gamble to get him before a 'bidding war' in the summer.

So who is this "alleged" club then ?  Hardly going to be a state secret ,is it .

[marcofisher]

Part of me wonders if he wants a move to Spurs, and would be willing to stay for a year and maybe even sign with a release clause to ensure that happens.

[chinapig]

3 minutes ago, hinsleburg said:

Sadly I do not!

I think it's the structure of the deal that is making clubs wary at the moment. We want 'x' amount plus add on's whereas I think post COVID clubs are relying more and more on add ons to finance deals over a longer period of time. If he goes this summer it'll be on terms we are happy with and unless Scott throws toys out (unlikely) we won't sell for the sake of selling

Thanks, a crucial point I think. For instance I understand that Palace were prepared to meet our price for Semenyo but not the payment terms.

[Mr Popodopolous]

11 minutes ago, hinsleburg said:

Sadly I do not!

I think it's the structure of the deal that is making clubs wary at the moment. We want 'x' amount plus add on's whereas I think post COVID clubs are relying more and more on add ons to finance deals over a longer period of time. If he goes this summer it'll be on terms we are happy with and unless Scott throws toys out (unlikely) we won't sell for the sake of selling

Thanks. So we want more in the bank now whereas some clubs may want a greater percentage in add-ons, targets hit etc?

Bellingham is an interesting case study for this. Think Borussia Dortmund were certainly wanting some £130m plus add-ons according to a report in March.

He went for £88.5m- but add-ons push it closer to that target fee. The remainder ie the further £29-30m seems to be linked to add-ons etc.

[hinsleburg]

7 minutes ago, slartibartfast said:

So who is this "alleged" club then ?  Hardly going to be a state secret ,is it .

Without wishing to be cryptic, I was told in good faith and don't feel comfortable sharing currently. The person that told me has been a good friend for a long time and works at the club in question so whilst unlikely to impact them I don't wish to take that chance.

I only posted as there's been a few comments that it seems really quiet currently on the AS front but think there's more happening than is currently being reported. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

43 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I am pretty relaxed about AS. Ask 25m maybe go as low as 22m. If not, we get another season of him. We’d still possibly fetch 12-15m for him next summer if he has a good season again. 25m helps more but don’t think FFP is much of an issue anymore. So 8 10 12 15 next summer will still go quite a ways. We don’t seem to be a club that will push FFP to the limit going forward anyway. 
 

I think if he can take another step forward in his game, then we can be a top 6 contender this season with the current squad(another 1-2 in as well). It may be more worth it to us having him play. 

FFP wise okay there will be some unknowns maybe if accepted Covid losses for 2021-22 exceed £2.5m but otherwise I would say best guess would be an allowable FFP loss not exceeding £13-14m this upcoming season. Which in accounting terms is £20-21m probably pre tax.

Will he interesting to see how much more we can spend independent of sales or sell on windfalls.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[PHILINFRANCE]

41 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Cole Palmer seemed pretty happy on Saturday night with a Champions League medal round his neck.

I didn't see that, but I'm sure he was, as, no doubt, was Kalvin Phillips; not forgetting Scott Carson, of course, who won his second Champions League medal following his part in Liverpool's victory - amazingly, his previous medal was also won in Istanbul.

Re. Kalvin Phillips, I am aware he suffered serious injury, but he has gone from being virtually ever-present in Leeds' team, and playing regularly for England, to very much a bit part player for Manchester City.

As I said, I am not sure whether Alex Scott would prefer medals or playing - preumably both, but unlikely at this stage of his career I would suggest.

[Roger Red Hat]

1 hour ago, ScottishRed said:

Yes, very much how he works. Ake is a great example of that.

And I’d suggest Grealish.

[Roger Red Hat]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/jun/13/top-transfer-targets-window-opens-osimhen-simakan

[Mr Popodopolous]

The thing is if you're a board in the PL, such is the pull of the PL for a few reasons.

You can get Scott who while hugely promising and we know how good he can be and may well shoot up further. However what percentage of that is potential and growth.

Scott or an established International top flight albeit elsewhere midfielder with CL experience from a European League for a similar price? You might be inclined to play it a bit safer. This is the concern I have with the £25m price tag vs the global pull of the PL.

PL clubs can very much afford Scott but will they play it safer at that price at this stage I wonder.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, Percy Pig said:

Risk and reward though. The English player premium means it is more likely than not that his value will double or treble in a very short space of time.

Counts towards the 8 homegrown players too.

£25m is a bargain. 

We should be getting £30m at least for what he is about to become. 

 

Liverpool!!!

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, Percy Pig said:

Risk and reward though. The English player premium means it is more likely than not that his value will double or treble in a very short space of time.

Counts towards the 8 homegrown players too.

£25m is a bargain. 

We should be getting £30m at least for what he is about to become. 

 

I'm not that convinced, not in terms of his ability but in terms of our ability to command the fee his ability and our development merits.

Ah yes the 8 home grown players rule. Just trying to extrapolate what we may get for him in this market, in theory he is optimum price time now.

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Liverpool!!!

McAllister and heavily linked with Kone and Thuram. Would they be looking to sign a 4th midfielder?

Edited June 13, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[George Rs]

With the amount of top quality midfielders moving this summer I can easily see Alex moving late in the window. If they weren’t idiots he would be on the list for just about every prem team and some in Europe too. 
 

As a lot of teams (dortmund, Madrid, Man City, Brighton, Chelsea) are losing their best midfielders they will be looking at first replacing them with proven top flight talent. Doesn’t mean they don’t respect or have interest in Scott it just means they have a different priority. Once those deals are done they may then come in for him. 
 

Can easily see a Brighton/wolves/spurs wait it out and meet our demands late on. What’s the point in starting bidding so early when there are so many interested. Will just significantly drive up his price which no potential suitors will want.

Edited June 13, 2023 by George Rs

[lenred]

42 minutes ago, Roger Red Hat said:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/jun/13/top-transfer-targets-window-opens-osimhen-simakan

Some incredibly heady company he’s being included with there.  Can only be helpful to see him being talked about in those terms.  

[Mr Popodopolous]

My mate who is a PL fan but sees a range of Bristol City game was debating this with them on weekend, fee etc. He reckons £15-20m, £20m being top end of the bids we will get. How would £25-30m sit in terms of all-time record fees at this level.

[slartibartfast]

9 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

My mate who is a PL fan but sees a range of Bristol City game was debating this with them on weekend, fee etc. He reckons £15-20m, £20m being top end of the bids we will get. How would £25-30m sit in terms of all-time record fees at this level.

Your mate is just a fan and knows no more than we do .

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, slartibartfast said:

Your mate is just a fan and knows no more than we do .

Agreed. His view is but one. I'm a little sceptical we will receive bids at the level we and Scott deserve but yeah just one view.

[George Rs]

27 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

My mate who is a PL fan but sees a range of Bristol City game was debating this with them on weekend, fee etc. He reckons £15-20m, £20m being top end of the bids we will get. How would £25-30m sit in terms of all-time record fees at this level.

It depends if you count teams coming down from the prem. If you do he’s around the top ten, but personally I don’t think they should count.

If you don’t and he goes for any amount between 25-30 he’s 4th highest championship departure fee.

1st: Joao Pedro - €34,200,000

2nd: Ollie Watkins - €34,000,000

3rd: Jude Bellingham - €30,150,000

4th: Alex Scott - €25-30,000,000

5th: James Maddison- €25,000,000

(Fees according to TransferMarkt)

Edited June 13, 2023 by George Rs

[RedRoss]

4 minutes ago, George Rs said:

It depends if you count teams coming down from the prem. If you do he’s around the top ten, but personally I don’t think they should count.

If you don’t and he goes for any amount between 25-30 he’s 4th highest championship departure fee.

1st: Joao Pedro - £34,200,000

2nd: Ollie Watkins - £34,000,000

3rd: Jude Bellingham - £30,150,000

4th: Alex Scott - £25-30,000,000

5th: James Maddison- £25,000,000

(Fees according to TransferMarkt)

Those figures are in euros.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, George Rs said:

It depends if you count teams coming down from the prem. If you do he’s around the top ten, but personally I don’t think they should count.

If you don’t and he goes for any amount between 25-30 he’s 4th highest championship departure fee.

1st: Joao Pedro - £34,200,000

2nd: Ollie Watkins - £34,000,000

3rd: Jude Bellingham - £30,150,000

4th: Alex Scott - £25-30,000,000

5th: James Maddison- £25,000,000

(Fees according to TransferMarkt)

Thanks. That appears to be in € however but yes can extrapolate from there. He would be up there as one of the top for sure.

[George Rs]

1 minute ago, RedRoss said:

Those figures are in euros.

Yea I don’t know how to change it on the website 

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 minutes ago, Percy Pig said:

Genuinely don't see the past or a fans perspective as relevant. How would he have any inclination of a clubs interest, valuation or where Alex sits on their recruitment priority list/squad depth chart? 

He's done more than Bellingham did at Birmingham. He moved for over £30m after sell ons. 

A fee is dependent on a multitude of factors, none of which are necessarily reflective of market value. 

Potential, home grown, 2 years left on a contract, professionalism (won't go on strike to force a move) the sale of Semenyo and 2 years of austerity meaning we are under no obligation to sell below our valuation will all be factors in driving the price up. Semenyo was the opposite story, diminishing value/contract, promise to let him leave, slowing interest meant we had to accept arguably less than he was "worth" if you were applying value as a stand alone concept (which it absolutely isnt). 

 

Take two identical players and put them in different scenarios and the fee will be wildly different. Circumstances are the main driver of value. We are in a strong position for once.

And if nobody meets our valuation we have the best young player in the division/country at our disposal for another year. Can't be a bad thing 

I get that although I wonder, the lack of concrete speculation is interesting, I do worry a bit as to whether he maybe priced out of a move which can happen.

Agreed with most of this although net of sales I wonder how much exactly we can spend. Two years of austerity certainly will have helped, has helped and we definitely don't need to sell (I also believe we may have breached FFP had we not sold Semenyo by end of May but that's another debate).

Feels like this summer would be the optimum time to sell for the biggest price but ideally he stays and develops further here for another year, with an improving side around him thst should also bring more out of him.