Mr Popodopolous Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 2 hours ago, cidered abroad said: 10 from 16 eh? That gives any club without parachute around 33% chance. If it was only one in sixteen, I'd agree with you but at those odds Pearson will be itching to get that one in three chance for us. Some sympathy with this but it can depend on how you measure it. I did some quick calculations for the last 5 seasons. Looks to me as if in the last 5 seasons, 7 of 10 have gone up automatically in receipt. A key percentage might be total sides in receipt of Parachute and the proportion who get top 2 vs the remainder as a proportion who don't. 7/30..23.333333% 3/90...3.3333% About 7 x as likely once broken down that way. I can look into it over 8 years, 10 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Hocca said: Why didn’t he just say ‘I have no idea what’s going on’ Tends to blow your credibility as ITK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 No-PP odds: 2015/16 - 3 in 14 chance / 1 in 14 actual 2016/17 - 3 in 16 / 2 in 16 2017/18 - 3 in 18 / 3 in 18 2018/19 - 3 in 16 / 2 in 16 2019/20 - 3 in 17 / 1 in 17 2020/21 - 3 in 17 / 1 in 17 2021/22 - 3 in 19 / 1 in 19 2022/23 - 3 in 19 / 1 in 19 Total - 24 in 136 / 12 in 136 percentage - 17.65% / 8.82% Odds worsening in recent years. In the last 4 seasons, 5 relegated clubs went straight back up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeez Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 I know the bean counters won’t like it but keeping AS this season might just be worth a go if he & his family are on board with the concept. There seems an excellent team spirit better than we can recall for some years, lots of emerging quality & a bit of experience. Everyone know their roles & to be fair last season results didn’t go our way but we were almost always on every game, injuries & ridiculous ref decisions did for us. Beyond the obvious qualities, the mental aspect of 20m+ player lining up every week will play on opposition coaches minds. What’s in it for Alex, another season as a main man in this team who know how to utilise him whereas there’s no guaranteed minutes in the Prem, lots of known, unknowns etc Who knows how it would pan out here but I would be confident of a top end finish. The group seem in a good place. I know we can’t compete financially but the make up of the squad being largely bedded in can be quite powerful against clubs in different degrees of transition. Just my half-cut holiday 10 pesetas worth. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Davefevs said: No-PP odds: 2015/16 - 3 in 14 chance / 1 in 14 actual 2016/17 - 3 in 16 / 2 in 16 2017/18 - 3 in 18 / 3 in 18 2018/19 - 3 in 16 / 2 in 16 2019/20 - 3 in 17 / 1 in 17 2020/21 - 3 in 17 / 1 in 17 2021/22 - 3 in 19 / 1 in 19 2022/23 - 3 in 19 / 1 in 19 Total - 24 in 136 / 12 in 136 percentage - 17.65% / 8.82% Odds worsening in recent years. In the last 4 seasons, 5 relegated clubs went straight back up. I think Cardiff and Fulham both had PP in 2017-18, at one point it was 4 years post relegation. I recall the system changed a few times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: I think Cardiff and Fulham both had PP in 2017-18, at one point it was 4 years post relegation. I recall the system changed a few times. Darn….yep you’re right, formula didn’t work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 11 minutes ago, Davefevs said: No-PP odds: 2015/16 - 3 in 14 chance / 1 in 14 actual 2016/17 - 3 in 16 / 2 in 16 2017/18 - 3 in 18 / 1 in 18 2018/19 - 3 in 16 / 2 in 16 2019/20 - 3 in 17 / 1 in 17 2020/21 - 3 in 17 / 1 in 17 2021/22 - 3 in 19 / 1 in 19 2022/23 - 3 in 19 / 1 in 19 Total - 24 in 136 / 10 in 136 percentage - 17.65% / 7.35% Odds worsening in recent years. In the last 4 seasons, 5 relegated clubs went straight back up. Corrected above, ta Mr P. So, a theoretical circa 1 in 6 chance of a non PP club getting promoted, and of that 1 in 6, about a 40% success rate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 22, 2023 Report Share Posted July 22, 2023 (edited) Excellent by the admin on Bristol City Twitter given all the speculation. Yes he may well still go but we're handling this impeccably as a club. Major xredit to Scott too so far, some players throw their toys out when there's speculation linking with higher paying or PL clubs. Edited July 22, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted July 23, 2023 Admin Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 5 hours ago, Hocca said: Why didn’t he just say ‘I have no idea what’s going on’ Because he sits on a throne of lies? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 There are some on this thread that really need to up their dosages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 So just for fun, let’s combine the two biggest sporting stories of the day: For how much of the day is it going to rain on Alex Scott? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedorDead BCFC Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 (edited) FLW are suggesting Finn Azaz as a replacement for Scott. https://footballleagueworld.co.uk/bristol-city-should-rival-plymouth-argyle-for-aston-villa-player-should-if-alex-scott-sale-goes-through-opinion/ What are other peoples view on him. I’m not going to lie, I know nothing about players below City players, and naive to other teams. And value what you lot tell me about players. Edited July 23, 2023 by RedorDead BCFC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grey Fox Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 10 hours ago, Davefevs said: Corrected above, ta Mr P. So, a theoretical circa 1 in 6 chance of a non PP club getting promoted, and of that 1 in 6, about a 40% success rate. Remind me, what four clubs contested the Play Offs last year? I love statistics, my favourite concerns drunk drivers, according to my local police 20% of drivers breathalysed after an accident had been drinking, which must mean , to a statician that if we can ban the 80% of sober bastards life would be a lot safer for the rest of us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocking Red Cyril Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 This topic needs jump leads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southport Red Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Grey Fox said: Remind me, what four clubs contested the Play Offs last year? I love statistics, my favourite concerns drunk drivers, according to my local police 20% of drivers breathalysed after an accident had been drinking, which must mean , to a statician that if we can ban the 80% of sober bastards life would be a lot safer for the rest of us A nice example of confirmation bias in action, but made me smile anyway 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Fred Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Rocking Red Cyril said: This topic needs jump leads 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nugget Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 Gotta say it’s the hope that kills you as each day passes he may stay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mihai Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 If he stays and we bring two more, I will be confident on a top 10 finish. This season is harder than the past one. The teams relegated from PL are top quality. The first two places are mostly decided. For top 6 is a very tough fight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Grey Fox said: Remind me, what four clubs contested the Play Offs last year? I love statistics, my favourite concerns drunk drivers, according to my local police 20% of drivers breathalysed after an accident had been drinking, which must mean , to a statician that if we can ban the 80% of sober bastards life would be a lot safer for the rest of us I thought you wanted us to keep our assets to get promoted? Playoffs is only a 1 in 4 chance. 11 minutes ago, Mihai said: If he stays and we bring two more, I will be confident on a top 10 finish. This season is harder than the past one. The teams relegated from PL are top quality. The first two places are mostly decided. For top 6 is a very tough fight. How do you know this season is harder? Who are your top 2 then? The Championship is hard every year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 (edited) Just one point on top 2 and Leicester in particular. Should we read anything into varied signings having the disclaimer "Subject to League/EFL Approval". Is there a potential issue with registration of some or all? If so that would be a blow.. Edited July 23, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Just one point on top 2 and Leicester in particular. Should we read anything into varied signings having the disclaimer "Subject to League/EFL Approval". Is there a potential issue with registration of some or all? If so that would be a blow.. No, it’s standard stuff, EFL process, that’s all. Same when they say “international clearance”, it’s just procedural. You do worry about things, don’t you! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Davefevs said: No, it’s standard stuff, EFL process, that’s all. Same when they say “international clearance”, it’s just procedural. You do worry about things, don’t you! I do a little yes! Nah just a little hope/straw to clutch at in terms of whether they're under special measured of any kind- definitely would boost our chances a bit then.. Probably routine as you say but most clubs don't state it. I do wonder if there could be some kind of EFL oversight or monitoring there. Edited July 23, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BritAbroad Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 The fact that everything has gone quiet makes me think that Wolves don't have enough to meet our demands. Also the fact that Bournemouth and Wolves fans were begging him to join shows that Premier League fans know how good he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 (edited) Wolves fans still seem a bit arrogant I must say. I digress, some on their forums think or the theory still persists with a few that they have put in an acceptable bid but that we are holding out for a bidding war or similar. Seen it suggested but take with lots of salt that he maybe submitting a transfer request soon- someone says they have been told that it's highly likely. Edited July 23, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Wolves fans still seem a bit arrogant I must say. I digress, some on their forums think or the theory still persists with a few that they have put in an acceptable bid but that we are holding out for a bidding war or similar. Seen it suggested but take with lots of salt that he maybe submitting a transfer request soon- someone says they have been told that it's highly likely. These scenarios are entirely possible. We literally have no idea what stance our club is taking, as much as we like to imagine that it's as simple as setting an asking price and waiting for it to be matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Seen it suggested but take with lots of salt that he maybe submitting a transfer request soon- someone says they have been told that it's highly likely. Another one who knows Nigel's father in law I assume? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, chinapig said: Another one who knows Nigel's father in law I assume? Yeah lots of salt needed, there are two Wolves forums so a different one I assume ha. Nothing really we as fans can do about it I guess except trust the club to get the best possible deal and trust Scott to continue to behave with top professionalism. Edited July 23, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rudolf Hucker Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 47 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Seen it suggested but take with lots of salt that he maybe submitting a transfer request soon- someone says they have been told that it's highly likely. The people suggesting this have as much knowledge on the matter as I have. BCFC, Alex and his agent have all been incredibly professional and there has been no leak throughout - other than what has emerged, I suspect, from bidding clubs. Everything on social media is therefore pure speculation - or bollocks, as I prefer to call it. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Rudolf Hucker said: The people suggesting this have as much knowledge on the matter as I have. BCFC, Alex and his agent have all been incredibly professional and there has been no leak throughout - other than what has emerged, I suspect, from bidding clubs. Everything on social media is therefore pure speculation - or bollocks, as I prefer to call it. Can never say never, someone on a forum may have sources or hear snippets which is why I'm reticent to rule it out 100 pct instantly but would've thought if any do have sources they would be closer to the Wolves perspective than Alex or us. Massive professionalism on the part of us, Alex and though I know little about him agent yeah agree. I suppose the bulk of alleged ITK on forums will be nonsense yeah. Hopefully Alex and his agent will continue to block out the noise until such time as an acceptable bid arises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted July 23, 2023 Report Share Posted July 23, 2023 (edited) I assume if this guy is going to Genoa he would be cheaper than Scott. Few possibilities at play here. Assuming broadly accurate of course. 1) Wolves truly got themselves into a huge FFP mess and are walking some sort of line maybe PL agreement to avoid falling foul. I dunno but this guy was or would be cheaper than Scott I expect. 2) Scott is deemed a higher priority so they're holding off on a striker for now. 3) Smokescreen for FOSUN not wishing to run at a loss or at least to make Wolves as self-sufficient as possible. 4) Political considerations in China, mean maybe FOSUN preparing the ground for a sale. 5) Cash flow issues, they recently had a Government loan of £99m after all! 6) Like point 7 but for commercial rather than political reasons. Although the 2 overlap in China. 6) Futureproofing to leave Wolves as self-sufficient as possible in case Chinese Government do something which incurs sanctions. Edited July 23, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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