World Cup 2006

[Guest pogue mahone]

Been studying the draw quite intensely over the last few days, and now I'll make a bold prediction - The two best runners-up will come from the France/Ireland/Switz (Gp4) and Portugal/Russia (Gp3) groups.

The way I see it, the runners-up in these groups should accumulate more points against the other relevant teams in their group, than the other eight runners-up.

Gp1 - The runner-up, probably Czechs or Holland, will drop points to the winner but also probably to Romania and Finland. Hence, their points tally won't be high.

Gp2 - Anyone can win this group, so probably very little points difference between first and fourth. Turkey, Denmark, Greece and Ukraine will all take points off one another, and some will drop points to Albania and Georgia. All of which leaves us with a runner-up who has dropped quite a few points.

Gp3 - Portugal and Russia to battle it out for top spot. Whoever finishes second will probably pick up near-maximum, if not maximum, points from the six games against Slovakia, Latvia and Estonia. Together with at least one point from the two games against the top team, this should ensure a high points tally.

Gp4 - Even if both Ireland and the Swiss lose both matches to France, it is very possible that they will pick up maximum points in the four matches with Israel and Cyprus. So, if one of them picks up four points against the other, that could be enough to make them one of the best two runners-up. Any points picked up against France would make it a certainty.

Gp5 - Italy should easily win, but there's little between Slovenia, Scotland and Norway. The latter three will share the points quite evenly among each other, and pick up little against Italy, so the runner-up won't return many points. Of course if one of these teams plays well, they could be good enough to beat the others and qualify automatically, but I don't see it happening.

Gp6 - For England see Italy, and for Poland, Austria and Wales see Slovenia, Scotland and Norway. Wales, if anyone, could pick up four points from six against the other contenders, but they might have to.

Gp7 - Lithuania and Bosnia are good enough to take points off Belgium and Serbia, who themselves will get little, if anything from Spain. Thus, another runner-up without a high return.

Gp8 - Possibly the most open group. Therefore the points will be spread out among the big three - Sweden, Croatia and Bulgaria - with the other two - Iceland and Hungary - winning a few points themselves. All of which means a runner-up who has dropped quite a few points.

So there you have it. Lots of probablys. None more so than in the presumption that Malta, San Marino, Faroe Islands etc finish outside of the top five, thus rendering their results meaningless in the runners-up qualification process. The trick is to land a weak fourth and fifth seed that can be beaten twice. Twelve points against Israel and Cyprus, and two five-nil hammerings by France is still better than two nil-nils with Spain along with two wins and two draws in the games against Bosnia and Lithuania. If you get what I'm saying.