Conversion rate- on the wane again

[Mr Popodopolous]

I occasionally look at this and tbh I use relatively basic metrics for this kinda thing. Our conversion rate, not digging out individuals, not pinpointing individual games but it's been on the side for a while.

Plus there was a period perhaps from QPR at home to say West Brom at home may be longer where it was on the floor a bit. Otoh there have been games where we have done a lot with little in terms of shots or possession or relatively outperformed the opposition.

Anyway, I'm maybe cherry picking a bit and its kinda averaging out at a baseline somewhat but...

Say Cardiff away to present.

10 games, 7 goals- 0 own goals in our favour, zero penalties so in a way it's a good sampling.

Cardiff (A)- 0 goals  (12 shots)

Huddersfield (A)- 0 goals (10 shots)

Blackpool (H)- 2 goals (18 shots)

Luton (A)- 0 goals (6 shots)

Swansea (A)- 0 goals (6 shots)

Reading (H)- 1 goal (18 shots)

Stoke (A)- 2 goals (5 shots)

Middlesbrough (H)- 2 goals  (16 shots)

Watford (A)- 0 goals (11 shots)

Sheffield United shots (A)- 0 goals (4 shots)

5 in 52 at home is alright if not quite there...shot and possession data is strong in all 3 and vs the two lesser sides respectively. Woodwork vs Middlesbrough and Reading at home. Cardiff away, and Watford once and once again on the road albeit it had been flagged for offside in the case of the one at 1-0.

2 in 54 is a shocker. 54 in 7 could be better but the conversion rate must be among the worst in the League. Stoke gsme aside which is clinical personified but completely not the norm despite the Wells miss.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

Xg per shot in those games is 0.11. Preceding games it's 0.13. that's a big drop in the quality of each shot.

Total xG is 11 for those games, 1.19 per game average. We've scored 7. So that's an underperformance against reasonable expectations, but over a small sample size such as 10 games it's not worrying.

[RedEd73]

Yes, conversation rates are down.

But 106 shots in 10 games. Really does reflect the work that Nige and the coaches have put in and how they have made this team more pleasant to watch. And if we're making chances at least we're likely to be more competitive.

Under Holden (and the final 12 months or so of LJ) we were lucky if we had 3 shots a game.

[ExiledAjax]

14 minutes ago, RedEd73 said:

Under Holden (and the final 12 months or so of LJ) we were lucky if we had 3 shots a game.

Holden was more like 8 shots a game, and in Johnson's final season we averaged just over 10 a game, which is pretty much the same as we've averaged under Pearson.

We just generally have been shot shy for years now. This season we're 5th lowest in the division for number of shots, 7th lowest last season, season before that we finished last and actually broke the record (by some margin) for the lowest number of shots in a season.

It's a perennial theme and has flowed through multiple managers.

Edited April 19, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[RedEd73]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Holden was more like 8 shots a game, and in Johnson's final season we averaged just over 10 a game, which is pretty much the same as we've averaged under Pearson.

We just generally have been shot shy for years now. This season we're 5th lowest in the division for number of shots, 7th lowest last season, season before that we finished last and actually broke the record (by some margin) for the lowest number of shots in a season.

It's a perennial theme and has flowed through multiple managers.

Fair enough. Didn't recall it being that many under previous managers but I haven't checked the stats.

[And Its Smith]

There’s a lack of conversation around Wells.  I always thought if he started more games he’d score more goals. A run of games would help him.  Since his last goal (from the bench) he’s started 9 games and not scored.  2 goals in his last 23 starts.  He actually scored two goals in his last two sub appearances.   Coincidence or better off the bench?
 

I’m not sure why he gets a bit of a free pass on here when other players are scape-goated.  Yes there is more to his game than scoring but they are dire stats.

[RedRock]

14 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

There’s a lack of conversation around Wells.  I always thought if he started more games he’d score more goals. A run of games would help him.  Since his last goal (from the bench) he’s started 9 games and not scored.  2 goals in his last 23 starts.  He actually scored two goals in his last two sub appearances.   Coincidence or better off the bench?
 

I’m not sure why he gets a bit of a free pass on here when other players are scape-goated.  Yes there is more to his game than scoring but they are dire stats.

It’s a strange one. We don’t seem to be getting into goal scoring positions as much as we did.

Bell’s wide on the left, Wells on the right, Cornick everywhere and Andi’s gone AWOL. We don’t seem to have a penalty box threat…and we’ve gone back to a set of attacking individuals with no pattern of play, rather than working as a unit. 

We know goals from elsewhere - midfield, defence are as rare as hen’s teeth. 

Quite how we adapt what is now a solid team back into a goal scoring machine is the challenge. Need a personel change and re-development of some partnerships

….and we all thought our defence and midfield was the problem!!! Vyner and Pring were exceptional last night btw and Dasilva and Tanner not far behind. Kingy and James just rolled back the years, bravo that pair as well.  

Edited April 19, 2023 by RedRock

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, RedEd73 said:

Fair enough. Didn't recall it being that many under previous managers but I haven't checked the stats.

It's understandable to have a slightly false recall. I think memory of Holden's final games is tricking you a little. In those final games it really was terrible. Averaging 5 or so shots a game and only 1 or 2 on target.

They were dark times indeed but it's important not to project them over the whole 12 months prior. In Holden's first 10 or so games we were putting up the same sort of numbers we are now in terms of attacking threat.

[Mr Popodopolous]

The shot data is interesting as under LJ in his last couple of years we were dominated often. Shot spread ie for v against is surely much improved on those days and indeed on early NP.

At home the data over the piece looks rather good but by no means perfect.

Away from home we are bound to have less of it anyway, all but the best do but while I see improvement 54 in 7 games...hmm.

We're better in so many areas though, as well as Shots for at home especially, Possession and shot spread we just feel more secure, cohesive and compact although this isn't always reflected in the numbers.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

Need to start thinking about why the numbers are lower, not just that the numbers are lower!

[Mr Popodopolous]

Injuries dont help, tougher run of fixtures- many factors feed in. We have positive shot ratio at home in the League for the first time since 2018-19 which is excellent. Bell, Conway, Mehmeti in different ways all inexperienced at the level. Scott at 19 is just well above many 19 year olds at Championship clubs.

At home I believe we are a match for most tbh. We are a work in progress, how can we not be with the required rebuilding and thin squad. Yet progressing reasonably overall.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Pezo]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Need to start thinking about why the numbers are lower, not just that the numbers are lower!

My putting of 2 and 2 together and probably making 5 is that these things seem to coincide with injury and Naismith seems to be the biggest effect.

[1960maaan]

I want us to shoot from the edge of the box more. We seem to  work space often enough , but always seem to move it wide. It took until the beginning of March to score a goal from outside the area, from a side that score from many crosses that's odd. I accept we probably score a reasonable percentage of our goals on the break or when the defence isn't set, but during a period when we are dominating a decent amount of possession, it seems criminal we don't try and make space for shots from 18 yards or so.

[Top Robin]

Our stikers are too inconsistent and lack real quality.

[WarksRobin]

3 hours ago, RedRock said:

It’s a strange one. We don’t seem to be getting into goal scoring positions as much as we did.

Bell’s wide on the left, Wells on the right, Cornick everywhere and Andi’s gone AWOL. We don’t seem to have a penalty box threat…and we’ve gone back to a set of attacking individuals with no pattern of play, rather than working as a unit. 

We know goals from elsewhere - midfield, defence are as rare as hen’s teeth. 

Quite how we adapt what is now a solid team back into a goal scoring machine is the challenge. Need a personel change and re-development of some partnerships

….and we all thought our defence and midfield was the problem!!! Vyner and Pring were exceptional last night btw and Dasilva and Tanner not far behind. Kingy and James just rolled back the years, bravo that pair as well.  

Could be that we can either be good in attack or solid in defence but haven’t been able to balance the two yet. 
I think Jason Euell has been quite influential in improving the attacking side of the team, and deserves some of the credit

[ExiledAjax]

50 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Need to start thinking about why the numbers are lower, not just that the numbers are lower!

Personally I think it's a combination of chance creation and finishing, and the two are linked.

As just one example, as a wide forward, Bell seems to cross the ball earlier and from a wider position than Semenyo would. This is especially true when Scott isn't playing as without Scott Bell receives the ball wider - because King/James don't tend to do the little through balls that Scott loves. So, instead of those byeline cut backs we saw in the early season, we get crosses from wide. The former is far easier to finish for a striker.

See also Pring's move to CB. No longer does he have licence to overlap with the wide forward or cut inside to link with the CM. We have lost his power and dynamism in that wide position, and so that threat is gone.

As we create less threat - in this example due to transfers and injuries changing the make up of our XI - the chances we create are weaker, and so harder to finish.

There's other examples and other factors at play, but this is one thing I've (anecdotally not statistically) observed.

Edited April 19, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[ExiledAjax]

43 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

I want us to shoot from the edge of the box more. We seem to  work space often enough , but always seem to move it wide. It took until the beginning of March to score a goal from outside the area, from a side that score from many crosses that's odd. I accept we probably score a reasonable percentage of our goals on the break or when the defence isn't set, but during a period when we are dominating a decent amount of possession, it seems criminal we don't try and make space for shots from 18 yards or so.

Again, this is something we've avoided for the best part of half a decade. Personally my suspicion is that it's a stats/data driven decision that all recent managers have happily accepted.

Taking long shots is statistically a very bad thing to do if you want to turn possession into goals. They're a great way of giving the ball back to your opponent for a goal kick, or for giving you a corner (which is also statistically a terrible way to try and score). Players like Lampard or Son who can consistently bang the ball into the top corner from 25 yards are few in number, expensive in wages, and generally don't play for mid table championship teams.

I love a long range top bin as much as the next guy, but I understand why we might avoid it.

[1960maaan]

39 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Again, this is something we've avoided for the best part of half a decade. Personally my suspicion is that it's a stats/data driven decision that all recent managers have happily accepted.

Taking long shots is statistically a very bad thing to do if you want to turn possession into goals. They're a great way of giving the ball back to your opponent for a goal kick, or for giving you a corner (which is also statistically a terrible way to try and score). Players like Lampard or Son who can consistently bang the ball into the top corner from 25 yards are few in number, expensive in wages, and generally don't play for mid table championship teams.

I love a long range top bin as much as the next guy, but I understand why we might avoid it.

I'm not talking lashing at a bouncing ball from 30 yards. We quite often lately, get controlled possession near the box, switch and move it. What I want to see is a more willingness to shoot. How many times have we seen a City player in a decent position, only to hesitate, then maybe pass or be closed out. If they were more willing and aware of shooting chances, they might be quicker when the opportunity comes. It's not just long shots, I'm talking no further than edge of the box really. I won't say buy a ticket (dammit) but IMO we don't get enough shots away when the chance appears .

[ExiledAjax]

9 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

I'm not talking lashing at a bouncing ball from 30 yards. We quite often lately, get controlled possession near the box, switch and move it. What I want to see is a more willingness to shoot. How many times have we seen a City player in a decent position, only to hesitate, then maybe pass or be closed out. If they were more willing and aware of shooting chances, they might be quicker when the opportunity comes. It's not just long shots, I'm talking no further than edge of the box really. I won't say buy a ticket (dammit) but IMO we don't get enough shots away when the chance appears .

Got you. I'd slightly misunderstood your point. I agree that a few more shots could be taken from the 12-18 yard range.

Fyi here's a table showing average distance of each team's shots this season. We're low down.

Note that this doesn't tell us a) how many shots we take, b) the spread of our shots, or c) success rate of shots from different ranges, but it does confirm that compared to our peers we shoot from close up.

Edited April 19, 2023 by ExiledAjax