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Bristol City - Dark Horses?


Davefevs

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2 hours ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

Or, perhaps, just a large, over enthusiastic fan base, happy to be back in the Championship and putting bets on getting out of it (in the right direction) straight away.

Not being a punter myself, I'm never sure whether, when these odds are announced, they are determined by the bookies, i.e. their forecast, or are they based on bets they've already received.

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8 hours ago, mozo said:

On what basis should Sheffield Wednesday be shorter odds than us?

Because they have more fans, and therefore more fans punting on their success, and therefore it will cost the bookies more if they get promoted, so the odds are cut to ensure the bookies still win.

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As for dark horses. I dunno- yes we are improving and the home performances especially have stepped up but it is a bit of a way- injuries we need to continue to trend in the tight direction  on although the increasing depth will help too. Away from home some good signs but are we creating enough on the road to be. A fairer share of penalties would also be very welcome.

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22 hours ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

The groundwork for this seasons squad has been set. The additions in defence of Dickie, McCrorie and potentially Roberts look to make us much harder to beat. There is now decent competition amongst our back-line.

My impression is that these deals were always our priority this summer. I feel additional business could centre around Alex Scott’s future.

If he were to leave for a big fee, I can see us reinforcing our centre midfield, and possibly a striker arriving (Conways goals alone might not be enough).

Overall, we look much stronger on paper. We look to have much more depth in certain positions, and the ability to rotate without weakening the starting 11.

Im excited for the season ahead.

Defensively stronger with additions so far but let’s not forget there were many games last season where we could not buy a goal (17 games) 

 

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7 minutes ago, Jeez said:

Defensively stronger with additions so far but let’s not forget there were many games last season where we could not buy a goal (17 games) 

 

I make it 14 league games? Still a good point and where we need to improve is spreading the goals around particularly from midfield where our goal return was poor. If Scott stays you would have to hope he does a lot better on that front next season. Alternatively his replacement needs to have half a dozen goals in him. We would also have scored a few more had Conway not got that injury imo.

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21 hours ago, big dosser said:

over the moon with are 2 signings now we have some good strength and height, still think we need a tall commanding goalkeeper even though max does a sound job and and a strong midfielder captain type player, the man you want in the trenches with you,i feel we have missed this type of player for far to long.im  cautious but slightly confident we could be the dark horse especially if we keep young alex for another year.

No way will we trouble the top six next season.

Should sneak into a top half finish.

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On 07/06/2023 at 12:10, mozo said:

It feels to me like we're still a year away from the stage of evolution required to be any kind promotion candidates, and for it to come in the 2023/24 season it will take an astonishing gathering of momentum, a bucket load of luck and some playoff drama. For us to be labelled dark horses I think confidence has to be a bit higher than that!

Probably by which time another or more than one team with a parachute payment will poach our best up-and-coming players and yet again we will be almost back to square one.

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13 minutes ago, pillred said:

Probably by which time another or more than one team with a parachute payment will poach our best up-and-coming players and yet again we will be almost back to square one.

Agh - I really hope not. Brentford managed to sell talent, hang on in there and get over the line eventually. It's a rare feat though.

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16 minutes ago, mozo said:

Agh - I really hope not. Brentford managed to sell talent, hang on in there and get over the line eventually. It's a rare feat though.

It is, we seem to be more susceptible to losing our better players over the past few seasons the list is a long one or maybe it's because we are more involved in our own team we notice it more, like you I really hope we can hang on to them I'm sick of being a feeder club for ex prem teams with Parachute payments and yes that's you Bournemouth etc. 

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19 hours ago, pillred said:

It is, we seem to be more susceptible to losing our better players over the past few seasons the list is a long one or maybe it's because we are more involved in our own team we notice it more, like you I really hope we can hang on to them I'm sick of being a feeder club for ex prem teams with Parachute payments and yes that's you Bournemouth etc. 

It is due to IMO a combination of factors.

Firstly trading of players was quite key to our strategy for some years, deemed pivotal in fact although our FFP meant we needed some sales in summer 2018 too.

Covid hit that model somewhat but only somewhat, the team running out of steam also played a role. Left us with a major hole to be filled.

The cost base being so high meant that we went into downsize mode, we had to for 18 months to two years. We are now and only now just emerging from this!

Lastly the trading model, fact of life although losing on a free if not promoted can be even more detrimental. Brentford obviously traded loads, Nottingham Forest seemed to sell with relative regularity, Stoke have started to- Bursik, Collins and Souttar all directly or otherwise from their academy, along with Campbell seen as jewels in the crown. Of those only Campbell remains.

Blackburn sold Armstrong but also took an approach to gamble a bit. They lost as a result:

Nyambe, Lenihan, Rothwell and Brereton-Diaz- plus in some ways you could also losing Ayala and Dack although both older on frees doesn't help.

However as luck would have it they get 12.5 pct of profit on David Raya as and when he moves! A few clubs have lucked out on sell on clause recently- Birmingham Bellingham, possibly Adams too if he moves on, Blackburn Raya should it materialise. Eze has been in sparkling form lately, wonder if he could move for good money- lucky QPR if so! Stoke also benefited from Collins sell on.

We have 3 potential sell on clauses pending and have for over a year. However as (bad) luck has it, Kelly Bournemouth went up and stayed up, Webster signed until 2026 which makes an imminent sale less likely and Brownhill was declared not for sale last summer among the many that Burnley sold and went back up! Wonder when our luck with sell on clauses shall materialise.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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We're all feeling pretty buoyant at the moment - and rightly so - with the progress the club has made thus far under NP, and most recently of course in the transfer market. May the good business continue!

As for next season, well it looks as though the Championship is going to be a very competitive, tough and exciting place to be.

I'm not anticipating a play-off place finish for us, but would like to see a top ten finish. 

COYR!

OTIB

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