Gab Sutton's predictions

[1960maaan]

Got a lot of time for him and he does seem to know his stuff, but there are a few oddities in his Championship predictions .

City 14th , Hull 6th ?

https://blog.betvictor.com/en-gb/sports/football/championship-2023-24-season-preview-1-24/?_gl=1*1i4f6z0*_ga*MTA3MDc0ODM2Ny4xNjg3NjI3MTAx*_ga_B1JTVFFX3P*MTY5MDE3ODkwNC4yNi4wLjE2OTAxNzg5MDQuMC4wLjA

 

[supercidered]

My view is that outside of people who are close to each club then so called experts, podcasters etc haven't a clue about where a club is in it's quest for success and where they are likely to be come May 2024. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Ipswich, Blackburn despite financial restriction (not FFP) questions and even Birmingham to finish above us, as well as the aforementioned Hull example.

Swansea to finish playoffs too.

Meanwhile Stoke to continue to fall down to 19th, Preston 21st and Norwich and Watford bottom half despite being in 2nd albeit final year of Parachute Payments.

[Mr Popodopolous]

He overstates our reliance on older players a bit too IMO.

[chinapig]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

He overstates our reliance on older players a bit too IMO.

As did 442, also out of apparent ignorance. They presumably regard O'Leary, Tanner, Vyner, Pring, Roberts, Knight, Scott, Bell, Mehmeti, Conway etc as on the verge of retirement.

[cidered abroad]

Just one person's opinion of which clubs will do what when it starts for real.

Perhaps it's better for us to be one of the dark horses!

[chinapig]

3 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Just one person's opinion of which clubs will do what when it starts for real.

Perhaps it's better for us to be one of the dark horses!

I have no problem with people having opinions I may not agree with. But those opinions should be based on proper research, which is rarely the case.

[Leveller]

16 minutes ago, chinapig said:

I have no problem with people having opinions I may not agree with. But those opinions should be based on proper research, which is rarely the case.

But I don’t think that’s true of Gab Sutton. He knows his stuff, but is predicting some rapid improvements at other clubs while feeling we will continue to tread water. Personally I think he’s optimistic about turnarounds at eg QPR Hull and Birmingham, and wrong about us, but we’ll see.

[chinapig]

3 minutes ago, Leveller said:

But I don’t think that’s true of Gab Sutton. He knows his stuff, but is predicting some rapid improvements at other clubs while feeling we will continue to tread water. Personally I think he’s optimistic about turnarounds at eg QPR Hull and Birmingham, and wrong about us, but we’ll see.

Yet he claims we are too reliant on older players which, as per my post above, suggests he is not well informed about our squad. There is every chance that our starting 11 against Preston will contain only 1 or 2 players who fall into that category.

And I doubt QPR fans would agree with him. Does he have no idea of the state they are in?

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, chinapig said:

Yet he claims we are too reliant on older players which, as per my post above, suggests he is not well informed about our squad. There is every chance that our starting 11 against Preston will contain only 1 or 2 players who fall into that category.

And I doubt QPR fans would agree with him. Does he have no idea of the state they are in?

I think it's very hard to be totally across each of 24 clubs to the extent that a dedicated fan might be. It is of course his job to be that, but he'll still get things wrong.

Through some friends I've a bit of insight into Leicester's preparations - he's pretty accurate with the formation description and spot on with how Pereira is being adapted. So he does have some insight in places and is well informed there.

But I also accept that knowing about Leicester doesn't prove that he will know about us. He can absolutely be spot on with the Foxes but absolutely not know anything about us.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Thing is we do have several older players but:

Naismith- Will be competing with James in midfield or Atkinson and perhaps Dickie for LCB. By the way he can give us a real dimension when he plays.

King- Squad player, indeed partial player coach role isn't he.

James- Important to the team although he is 33.

Weimann- More than happy to have him on the books but he's not a regular starter anymore.

Wells- Competing with Conway up front. Besides he's quite a clever player or can be so age isn't such a limiting factor.

On the flipside if Scott goes and we get two or three more in, I expect they will all be under 30 and could be under 25.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[cidercity1987]

I've seen a few predictions placing Hull very high in the table

Finished below us last season with poorer form over a sustained period of time.

Have they recruited well or what's that all about?

Edited July 24, 2023 by cidercity1987

[fisherrich]

Followed Gab for a while now and generally he knows his stuff. One of the few worth following IMO.
I also think mid table is about right for City in what looks like a very competitive Championship next season. There will always be a few surprise teams and I hope City is one of them. But been hoping for quite a few years now …..
Only time will tell.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Swansea are another I would raise as surprisingly high.

Why would they be suddenly tipped to go back to the top 6. Yates is a strong addition  and Duff maybe more varied in his tactical approach than Martin but Latibeaudiere and Manning have gone, Piroe may well do likewise and they're no longer in a cycle where Parachute Payments are a factor, relatively low income too.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[GrahamC]

7 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

I've seen a few predictions placing Hull very high in the table

Finished below us last season with poorer form over a sustained period of time.

Have they recruited well or what's that all about?

Not really, Delap (4 goals last season) is seen as something far better than he’s shown.

I will be very surprised if they finish above us & no way will QPR finish above Preston or Huddersfield, they’ll do very well to avoid relegation.

Edited July 24, 2023 by GrahamC

[Mr Popodopolous]

14 minutes ago, fisherrich said:

Followed Gab for a while now and generally he knows his stuff. One of the few worth following IMO.
I also think mid table is about right for City in what looks like a very competitive Championship next season. There will always be a few surprise teams and I hope City is one of them. But been hoping for quite a few years now …..
Only time will tell.

Agree Gab is pretty good but some of the predictions, not just talking us but the League...they're bold. Time will tell as you say, midtable wouldn't surprise too much for us but I'd hope top half.

[chinapig]

14 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think it's very hard to be totally across each of 24 clubs to the extent that a dedicated fan might be. It is of course his job to be that, but he'll still get things wrong.

Through some friends I've a bit of insight into Leicester's preparations - he's pretty accurate with the formation description and spot on with how Pereira is being adapted. So he does have some insight in places and is well informed there.

But I also accept that knowing about Leicester doesn't prove that he will know about us. He can absolutely be spot on with the Foxes but absolutely not know anything about us.

Agreed, anyone in his position is going to know much more about the bigger clubs than the likes of us.

I'm not bothered where he or anybody else predicts we will finish, it's of no consequence. My point is that he is making a categorical statement in support of his prediction that is not supported by the facts.

Were I to predict the table I would rely on relative wage bills to do so but then Luton showed that is not a guarantee. So I don't make predictions, especially about the future.

[Davefevs]

38 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Yet he claims we are too reliant on older players which, as per my post above, suggests he is not well informed about our squad. There is every chance that our starting 11 against Preston will contain only 1 or 2 players who fall into that category.

And I doubt QPR fans would agree with him. Does he have no idea of the state they are in?

Gab sent me his draft through last week, asking is there was anything glaringly wrong.  There wasn’t.  I don’t agree with his opinion, but it’s just that, his opinion.  It’s also quite easy to get carried away with signings of one club and not another, whilst also ignoring who’s gone out the door.  There are inconsistencies in his rationale.

Nobody knows about our club and it’s nuances like we do, just like we don’t of other clubs.

So I just let them have their take on it.

[ExiledAjax]

15 minutes ago, chinapig said:

Agreed, anyone in his position is going to know much more about the bigger clubs than the likes of us.

I'm not bothered where he or anybody else predicts we will finish, it's of no consequence. My point is that he is making a categorical statement in support of his prediction that is not supported by the facts.

Were I to predict the table I would rely on relative wage bills to do so but then Luton showed that is not a guarantee. So I don't make predictions, especially about the future.

These are the offending words yes?

Pearson’s side leant heavily, last season, though on a core of defender Kal Naismith, midfielders Matty James and Andy King, plus forwards Andreas Weimann and Nahki Wells, all the other side of 30, who played in on average 75% of league games.

I think it's fair to question this. Our squad age profile is something that's concerned me for a few seasons now. In the last two seasons we've lacked outfield players aged 26-30.

Time and signings means that this season we have 4 (Vyner, Dickie, Cornick, Williams) in that window right now, and another 4 (McRorie, Pring, Sykes, Atkinson) will turn 26 during the course of 23/24. So that's better, and should reduce the need to play the guys in their 30s. With a bit of a formation shuffle it's possible that come season end (January transfer notwithstanding) all 8 of those, plus 26/27 year old O'Leary, could start a game. That's a pretty prime-age first XI potentially.

Should Sutton know this ...tbh yes as it's just gleaned from transfermarkt.

Edited July 24, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Davefevs]

20 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

These are the offending words yes?

Pearson’s side leant heavily, last season, though on a core of defender Kal Naismith, midfielders Matty James and Andy King, plus forwards Andreas Weimann and Nahki Wells, all the other side of 30, who played in on average 75% of league games.

I think it's fair to question this. Our squad age profile is something that's concerned me for a few seasons now. In the last two seasons we've lacked outfield players aged 26-30.

Time and signings means that this season we have 4 (Vyner, Dickie, Cornick, Williams) in that window right now, and another 4 (McRorie, Pring, Sykes, Atkinson) will turn 26 during the course of 23/24. So that's better, and should reduce the need to play the guys in their 30s. With a bit of a formation shuffle it's possible that come season end (January transfer notwithstanding) all 8 of those, plus 26/27 year old O'Leary, could start a game. That's a pretty prime-age first XI potentially.

Should Sutton know this ...tbh yes as it's just gleaned from transfermarkt.

There is playing “in” 75% of league matches, and playing “in” 75% of minutes.

Matty James 34 (74%) / 33 / 2961 (71.5%)

Kal Naismith 25 (54%) / 23 / 1974 (46.7%)

Andy King 26 (57%) / 15 / 1380 (33.3%)

Andreas Weimann 43 (93%) / 31 / 2984 (72.1%)

Nahki Wells 45 (98%) / 32 / 2819 (68.1%)

Average appearances: 376% / 5 = 75.2%

Average mins: 291.7% / 5 = 58.3%

 

edit: of course it’s possible for 16 players to play each game, I’m just commenting on Gab’s simplistic method - that’s his choice)

Edited July 24, 2023 by Davefevs

[GrahamC]

28 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

These are the offending words yes?

Pearson’s side leant heavily, last season, though on a core of defender Kal Naismith, midfielders Matty James and Andy King, plus forwards Andreas Weimann and Nahki Wells, all the other side of 30, who played in on average 75% of league games.

I think it's fair to question this. Our squad age profile is something that's concerned me for a few seasons now. In the last two seasons we've lacked outfield players aged 26-30.

Time and signings means that this season we have 4 (Vyner, Dickie, Cornick, Williams) in that window right now, and another 4 (McRorie, Pring, Sykes, Atkinson) will turn 26 during the course of 23/24. So that's better, and should reduce the need to play the guys in their 30s. With a bit of a formation shuffle it's possible that come season end (January transfer notwithstanding) all 8 of those, plus 26/27 year old O'Leary, could start a game. That's a pretty prime-age first XI potentially.

Should Sutton know this ...tbh yes as it's just gleaned from transfermarkt.

With Naismith & King that’s definitely not the case, is it?

Naismith only started half our league games (plus 2 sub appearances), King only started 15, plus came on in 11 as sub.

We actually leaned on Vyner as our first choice defender & in midfield on some lad called Scott..

I do think our recruitment has looked to address the imbalance between a group with those who were very inexperienced & those over 30 & whilst not perfect due to our financial constraints we are in a far better place.

No one is always going to agree but Sutton is far better than many so called experts, I think we can finish around 10th myself whether Scott stays or not but so many variables make it a mug’s game really.

Edited July 24, 2023 by GrahamC

[bcfc01]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

There is playing “in” 75% of league matches, and playing “in” 75% of minutes.

Matty James 34 (74%) / 33 / 2961 (71.5%)

Kal Naismith 25 (54%) / 23 / 1974 (46.7%)

Andy King 26 (57%) / 15 / 1380 (33.3%)

Andreas Weimann 43 (93%) / 31 / 2984 (72.1%)

Nahki Wells 45 (98%) / 32 / 2819 (68.1%)

Average appearances: 376% / 5 = 75.2%

Average mins: 291.7% / 5 = 58.3%

 

edit: of course it’s possible for 16 players to play each game, I’m just commenting on Gab’s simplistic method - that’s his choice)

Similarly, saying Conway scored 12 last season doesn't take into account that the minutes he played equated to 23 games. So he was effectively a one in two striker last season and there's not many of those around. I don't expect anyone who writes about 24 teams to go into that detail for every team, but if people don't go into a little bit of detail it makes it superficial and a pretty pointless exercise really.

 

[chinapig]

29 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

These are the offending words yes?

Pearson’s side leant heavily, last season, though on a core of defender Kal Naismith, midfielders Matty James and Andy King, plus forwards Andreas Weimann and Nahki Wells, all the other side of 30, who played in on average 75% of league games.

I think it's fair to question this. Our squad age profile is something that's concerned me for a few seasons now. In the last two seasons we've lacked outfield players aged 26-30.

Time and signings means that this season we have 4 (Vyner, Dickie, Cornick, Williams) in that window right now, and another 4 (McRorie, Pring, Sykes, Atkinson) will turn 26 during the course of 23/24. So that's better, and should reduce the need to play the guys in their 30s. With a bit of a formation shuffle it's possible that come season end (January transfer notwithstanding) all 8 of those, plus 26/27 year old O'Leary, could start a game. That's a pretty prime-age first XI potentially.

Should Sutton know this ...tbh yes as it's just gleaned from transfermarkt.

Yes, the part you quote shows the problem of relying on the past to predict the future. It takes no account of the squad as it now is or indeed what it might be at the end of the window.

Which makes prediction difficult even for a respected person like this guy. Not that it matters in the slightest of course.

[ExiledAjax]

13 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Similarly, saying Conway scored 12 last season doesn't take into account that the minutes he played equated to 23 games. So he was effectively a one in two striker last season and there's not many of those around. I don't expect anyone who writes about 24 teams to go into that detail for every team, but if people don't go into a little bit of detail it makes it superficial and a pretty pointless exercise really.

Goals/mins he was excellent as you say.

30 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

There is playing “in” 75% of league matches, and playing “in” 75% of minutes.

Thanks, this is a point I wanted to make but didn't have the desire to write out the figures on my phone. King is especially misleading in that bit of Sutton's predictions.

22 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

I do think our recruitment has looked to address the imbalance between a group with those who were very inexperienced & those over 30 & whilst not perfect due to our financial constraints we are in a far better place.

I think we've recruited very well when looking purely at age profile. We've gone from 2 starters in their prime (Bentley and Kalas) at the end of 2021/22, to potentially 9 at the end of 2023/24. If that comes to pass then it will very good progress both in terms of bringing in new talent and retaining/developing the likes of Pring, Vyner and O'Leary.

[Bristol Rob]

For balance, as much as we comment that those making the predictions don't know City well enough, I'll bet the vast majority of those questioning where people think we might finish would struggle to name the last 2 players Plymouth signed, or who Coventry released in the summer.

We are all pretty blinkered views on things.

[chinapig]

11 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

For balance, as much as we comment that those making the predictions don't know City well enough, I'll bet the vast majority of those questioning where people think we might finish would struggle to name the last 2 players Plymouth signed, or who Coventry released in the summer.

We are all pretty blinkered views on things.

Fair comment. I certainly don't have in depth knowledge of the other clubs but then again I don't claim any expertise so don't make public predictions on where clubs are going to finish.

Though it's all pretty trivial stuff and doesn't really matter.

[cotswoldred2]

I cannot for the life of me see us below 10th...the strike force we have assembled and the defensive woes seemingly repaired surely we are on the cusp of some exciting times....at last.