Another Prediction 1-24

[1960maaan]

This time the other Pod that I enjoy. Benjamin Bloom Football Channel is one of the better ones, and he does take time to explain why he has a team where he has them . For you benefit I have written out the League as he has it, but he is worth a listen. 

There are a few teams that differ massively , but he has us the same as Gab Sutton, which is interesting , but not surprising.
Probably BB is nearer how I see the Division shaping up, I do expect (hope?) we will be several places higher though.
Thoughts on this one ?

 

BB's 1-24 on the left & Gab Sutton had the important spots right

01. Leicester.    CHAMPS     ...... Leicester

02. Middlesboro     ........ Sunderland
***********

03. Leeds     .................M'boro

04. Southampton    ......Leeds

05. Coventry       ......... Swansea

06. Watford.   ............. Hull
*******************

07. Millwall

08. Sunderland

09. Norwich

10.  Birmingham

11.  Swansea

12.  Ipswich

13.  Blackburn

14.  Bristol City  .......  Bristol City

15.  PNE

16.  Stoke

17.   Hull C

18.  WBA

19.  Huddersfield

20.  Plymouth

21.  Cardiff
*****************

22.  QPR. ......... Sheff W

23.  Rotherham. .... Huddersfield

24.  Sheff Weds. .....Rotherham

 

 

 

[pl00peh91]

It feels suspiciously similar to last season’s table, with the only real outlier being Birmingham who he has put in 10th because of their summer signings. Feels too safe to me!

[Stockwood gate]

I reckon 16/17 with Pearson gone by Christmas. 

[!james]

13 minutes ago, Stockwood gate said:

I reckon 16/17 with Pearson gone by Christmas. 

that's the spirit! 

[Spike]

I think mid-table is what most people will say for us. I mean when you look at the other teams and the kind of signings some of them are making, we're still not hitting the headlines because our transfer business has been shrewd. I also think we'll struggle to make top 6 unless we have one hell of a run of form by finding a lineup that is consistent and performs very well, something that would be all the more likely if we didn't already have 6 injuries going into the season.

I know I may sound negative but I like to think I don't get carried away, I'm a little over 40 and I think I can already count 15 seasons of our fans talking about having the standout season only for us to achieve it once out of all 15 and even then we fell short at the end. I think this season will be a case of getting the squad working well with each other in different set ups and then maybe if we're still pushing along well come the end of it the next window will allow us to make the final few signings, maybe a marquee signing Scott goes and the finances allow it.

I'm still hoping we perform above expectations but I don't think any of these predictions are insulting... well, unless you're WBA maybe.

[Garland-sweden]

Im optimistic, top six. Other teams not better than ours, ok , Leicester, Leeds, Southampton. We got young hungry players, also Weimann, Wells, King. We got lots of goals in our team, key will be midfield, defence. Hard working team all over the pitch, avoid defence errors as mutch as possible. Maybe we got luck with the refs, pens he he. Its hard to predict offcause but this season its not only my heart to believe in top six. The new Derby player, Mehmeti or someone else of our good players can be the different. Competion for starting eleven makes our stronger. 

[Supersonic Robin]

I think that with some of these predictions we're the victims of stereotype.

Many neutrals see us as *the* classic midtable Championship team, and stick us around 11th - 15th with no real thought beyond that. 

That's not to say that they're necessarily wrong, just that the thought process doesn't extend far beyond "They're Bristol City, so they'll finish about 14th".

 

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by Supersonic Robin

[chinapig]

His channel is excellent. At least when he makes predictions he seems to actually know about the clubs and usually applies some logic. Not always the case with others.

[Stockwood gate]

29 minutes ago, !james said:

that's the spirit! 

35 years of following city it’s the hope that kills you 

[bcfc01]

For me (as it stands) ;

Promotion and Relegation in bold, playoff losers underlined, rest in no particular order.

1st -8th Leicester Leeds Southampton Boro Norwich Coventry Sunderland WBA

9th - 16th Millwall Watford Ipswich City Birmingham Huddersfield Blackburn Hull

17th - 24th QPR Swansea Stoke Plymouth PNE Cardiff Rotherham Sheff.W.

 

[LondonBristolian]

I think the thing is that there are a lot of teams that someone somewhere thinks will finish in the top six. It's hard to make a case for Rotherham, QPR, Cardiff or Wednesday (although any of them could surprise us) but you could probably make a case for why any other club could be seen as a dark horse. And there's probably 15 teams whose fans fancy them for the play-offs, us included. The reality is some of those teams will overachieve and some will underachieve but, when making predictions, people unsurprisingly tend to tips those with parachute payments or access to resources.

I think we've recruited well and I think, if we avoid bad luck with injuries and bouts of inconsistency, we're a good bet to do better than those outside the club think. However I'm not going to blame those outside the club for looking at our finish last season and our unglamorous (although hopefully shrewd) signings and putting us mid-table. It's the team's job to demonstrate that they've underestimated us. 

[Supersonic Robin]

9 minutes ago, chinapig said:

His channel is excellent. At least when he makes predictions he seems to actually know about the clubs and usually applies some logic. Not always the case with others.

Really? I often find his comments a bit surface level. Obviously can't expect him to know everything about every team, but there does feel like there's a lack of depth to it a lot of the time. Wouldn't say he's awful, but he's far from excellent IMHO.

For me, Not the Top 20 are miles ahead of everyone else re Championship content.

[Monkeh]

I'm.going with 8th this season, we still aren't strong enough for a sustained push, but its improving all the time

[Bryans Left Peg]

A season where we don’t have to look nervously behind us at all and at times could have some optimism of what we might achieve will do me fine. 

[italian dave]

29 minutes ago, Spike said:

I think mid-table is what most people will say for us. I mean when you look at the other teams and the kind of signings some of them are making, we're still not hitting the headlines because our transfer business has been shrewd. I also think we'll struggle to make top 6 unless we have one hell of a run of form by finding a lineup that is consistent and performs very well, something that would be all the more likely if we didn't already have 6 injuries going into the season.

I know I may sound negative but I like to think I don't get carried away, I'm a little over 40 and I think I can already count 15 seasons of our fans talking about having the standout season only for us to achieve it once out of all 15 and even then we fell short at the end. I think this season will be a case of getting the squad working well with each other in different set ups and then maybe if we're still pushing along well come the end of it the next window will allow us to make the final few signings, maybe a marquee signing Scott goes and the finances allow it.

I'm still hoping we perform above expectations but I don't think any of these predictions are insulting... well, unless you're WBA maybe.

I’m not sure “shrewd” is a judgement you can make this early!

But absolutely agree with you about the importance of those unpredictables: a season without (major) injuries, a settled side, confidence (which is what usually drives those good runs). Absolutely critical. And will make the difference. Or not!

And the other thing that contributes is that little 1% of luck: getting into the habit of scoring last 5 minutes, not conceding. Getting the 50/50 penalty shouts. The ball that goes in off the inside of the post, not out. I know people say they even themselves out but I’m not always sure they do 100%. And that few % can make a lot of difference. . 

[italian dave]

1 minute ago, Bryans Left Peg said:

A season where we don’t have to look nervously behind us at all and at times could have some optimism of what we might achieve will do me fine. 

That was last season for me. I’m hoping for a little more than that this. Looking ahead more than behind, and optimism about what we could achieve. 

[chinapig]

8 minutes ago, Supersonic Robin said:

Really? I often find his comments a bit surface level. Obviously can't expect him to know everything about every team, but there does feel like there's a lack of depth to it a lot of the time. Wouldn't say he's awful, but he's far from excellent IMHO.

For me, Not the Top 20 are miles ahead of everyone else re Championship content.

He's doing short videos. They would have to be a lot longer to go into depth about 24 clubs.

In our case at least he commented on our reset and our young players, two key points. Compared with others who appear to be ignorant of either. Not to mention ignorant of the state the likes of QPR and WBA are in and so on.

Agreed on Not the Top 20 though.

[robinforlife2]

I must say, I would be somewhat disappointed if we can only finish 14th. I'm not saying we will go up, but I think we are well enough positioned and more than capable of being in the mix and definitely expect us to be in the top 10. If we can keep hold of Scott, Conway, Bell and Pring for the whole season, I see no reason, why we can't go very close to making the playoffs.

[2015]

This guy's youtube channel is brilliant. Always pretty fair and neutral, although he is an Ipswich fan. Miles better than the Second tier Pod

[cidercity1987]

14th without Scott and no replacement is probably about fair. We saw last night a lack of creativity.

With Scott, or with some of his money invested wisely then we have to be looking much higher in the table and certainly above the likes of Blackburn, Birmingham, Swansea, Ipswich

[City oz]

1 hour ago, Stockwood gate said:

I reckon 16/17 with Pearson gone by Christmas. 

Whatever pulls your pud mate. Too many bad beers in the Concorde pub maybe have affected your brain.

[TheReds]

I'm gonna go all out and say 6th with my heart, but 8-10th with my head.

I think we are in the best position as a club for years (not too hard).

Getting close to the start of the season it feels like we are where we want to be with the players in early and overall squad (even if Scott goes). The youngsters have a Championship season under their belt and a lot more experience, as a club we all seem to be pulling in the same direction and more cohesive, some great additions to the squad and more/better competition for places. A great blend of experience and hungry youngsters trying to prove themselves. Mehmeti and Cornick hopefully are now more on board with the system(s) we will play, and a preseason under their belts.

I am pretty positive and would be disappointed if we are not in the top 10, and with a bit of luck and a few less injuries here and there then we could push for the top 6. An extra couple of wins last season would have had us top 10, and I don't see why we cannot achieve that as a minimum. Can we get another 10-12 points, maybe it is too much to ask, but I honestly don't think it is unachievable.

Plus we may be in the position to spend and strengthen in January.

Edited July 26, 2023 by TheReds
Added last sentence

[lenred]

Top 12 this year will be an expected finishing position for me, with playoffs still dream land for this season and top 2 a miracle. Miracles do happen though!   

[OneTeamInBristol]

Coventry won't be that high again, they'll be bottom half this season.

Surprised at people putting Leeds so high as well.

[City oz]

Why are there still so many negative comments on OTIB that predict we will only be mid table. Jesus Christ why are they on OTIB.

[City oz]

5 minutes ago, lenred said:

Top 12 this year will be an expected finishing position for me, with playoffs still dream land for this season and top 2 a miracle. Miracles do happen though!   

I suppose you are not a season ticket holder this season. Top 12 why would you be. 

[SecretSam]

Top half fine by me. 

We always lose in the play-offs, so no point in getting our hopes up there!

[lenred]

26 minutes ago, City oz said:

I suppose you are not a season ticket holder this season. Top 12 why would you be. 

Sorry? 

[ExiledAjax]

49 minutes ago, lenred said:

Top 12 this year will be an expected finishing position for me, with playoffs still dream land for this season and top 2 a miracle. Miracles do happen though!   

Pretty much my thinking. I reckon 11th is my expectation, but really anywhere between 8th and 12th realistic.

Ultimately I just want us to improve. Improve GD, improve points, improve position in the table.

If by some miracle we improve enough to break into the top 6 or even top 2 then brilliant, but that's not what I expect or predict to happen!

[Davefevs]

4 hours ago, Spike said:

I think mid-table is what most people will say for us. I mean when you look at the other teams and the kind of signings some of them are making, we're still not hitting the headlines because our transfer business has been shrewd. I also think we'll struggle to make top 6 unless we have one hell of a run of form by finding a lineup that is consistent and performs very well, something that would be all the more likely if we didn't already have 6 injuries going into the season.

I know I may sound negative but I like to think I don't get carried away, I'm a little over 40 and I think I can already count 15 seasons of our fans talking about having the standout season only for us to achieve it once out of all 15 and even then we fell short at the end. I think this season will be a case of getting the squad working well with each other in different set ups and then maybe if we're still pushing along well come the end of it the next window will allow us to make the final few signings, maybe a marquee signing Scott goes and the finances allow it.

I'm still hoping we perform above expectations but I don't think any of these predictions are insulting... well, unless you're WBA maybe.

Firstly I really like BB’s stuff, haven’t watched yet, will do next.

The thing a lot of people do when they do these things is look at who each club has signed, but not enough duty is paid to who has left.

Its why I do my churn table:

(for info any player who left but has re-signed isn’t included, so it’s fair, e.g. Sanderson)

(for any player who’s been offered a contract but yet to sign, they are included, e.g. Kalas)

And in particular Birmingham, who are getting a bit of backing based on their incomings.

But to delve deeper:

They’ve lost the equivalent of 4.5/10 outfield players.

Sanderson, Long and Bielik were already here, so they’ve brought in:

Laird, Anderson, Myoshi, Dembele and Roberts

whilst losing:

Chong, Trusty, Hannibal, Deeney, etc.

 

Now, maybe it’s me, but do Brum look stronger than last season….not to me they don’t.  Yet I bet most pundits will have them higher than last season’s 17th.  I don’t think the evidence is there.

 

Whereas for us, we’ve only really lost Dasilva, yet brought in four.  Not just numbers, but I think we look stronger as a result.

 

It’s a pretty much impossible job to predict right, but there is the usual big-club bias in amongst it.