Another Prediction 1-24

[j1974]

19 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Firstly I really like BB’s stuff, haven’t watched yet, will do next.

The thing a lot of people do when they do these things is look at who each club has signed, but not enough duty is paid to who has left.

Its why I do my churn table:

(for info any player who left but has re-signed isn’t included, so it’s fair, e.g. Sanderson)

(for any player who’s been offered a contract but yet to sign, they are included, e.g. Kalas)

And in particular Birmingham, who are getting a bit of backing based on their incomings.

But to delve deeper:

They’ve lost the equivalent of 4.5/10 outfield players.

Sanderson, Long and Bielik were already here, so they’ve brought in:

Laird, Anderson, Myoshi, Dembele and Roberts

whilst losing:

Chong, Trusty, Hannibal, Deeney, etc.

 

Now, maybe it’s me, but do Brum look stronger than last season….not to me they don’t.  Yet I bet most pundits will have them higher than last season’s 17th.  I don’t think the evidence is there.

 

Whereas for us, we’ve only really lost Dasilva, yet brought in four.  Not just numbers, but I think we look stronger as a result.

 

It’s a pretty much impossible job to predict right, but there is the usual big-club bias in amongst it.

 

 

Agree with this. 

Feel as though there is a lot to be positive about going into this season. Not only the 4 signings which I think will all add benefit to the squad but also the likes of Tanner, Bell, Conway and if he stays Scott all being wiser, stronger and more championship streetwise plus Mehmeti with a full pre season behind him. 

[REDOXO]

I think we will be competitive. If you can maintain the competition of the squad and on match day anything can happen over a season. 
 

Predictions in the most part are just the nature of the off season. People are bored and no one remembers anyway! 
 

I’ll just remain (very) hopeful!

[aa_bcfc]

4 hours ago, OneTeamInBristol said:

Coventry won't be that high again, they'll be bottom half this season.

Surprised at people putting Leeds so high as well.

I thought that with Luton last season. Couldn’t have been more wrong. 

[aa_bcfc]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Firstly I really like BB’s stuff, haven’t watched yet, will do next.

The thing a lot of people do when they do these things is look at who each club has signed, but not enough duty is paid to who has left.

Its why I do my churn table:

(for info any player who left but has re-signed isn’t included, so it’s fair, e.g. Sanderson)

(for any player who’s been offered a contract but yet to sign, they are included, e.g. Kalas)

And in particular Birmingham, who are getting a bit of backing based on their incomings.

But to delve deeper:

They’ve lost the equivalent of 4.5/10 outfield players.

Sanderson, Long and Bielik were already here, so they’ve brought in:

Laird, Anderson, Myoshi, Dembele and Roberts

whilst losing:

Chong, Trusty, Hannibal, Deeney, etc.

 

Now, maybe it’s me, but do Brum look stronger than last season….not to me they don’t.  Yet I bet most pundits will have them higher than last season’s 17th.  I don’t think the evidence is there.

 

Whereas for us, we’ve only really lost Dasilva, yet brought in four.  Not just numbers, but I think we look stronger as a result.

 

It’s a pretty much impossible job to predict right, but there is the usual big-club bias in amongst it.

 

 

 

I wish I had this level of insight. 

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Firstly I really like BB’s stuff, haven’t watched yet, will do next.

The thing a lot of people do when they do these things is look at who each club has signed, but not enough duty is paid to who has left.

Its why I do my churn table:

(for info any player who left but has re-signed isn’t included, so it’s fair, e.g. Sanderson)

(for any player who’s been offered a contract but yet to sign, they are included, e.g. Kalas)

And in particular Birmingham, who are getting a bit of backing based on their incomings.

But to delve deeper:

They’ve lost the equivalent of 4.5/10 outfield players.

Sanderson, Long and Bielik were already here, so they’ve brought in:

Laird, Anderson, Myoshi, Dembele and Roberts

whilst losing:

Chong, Trusty, Hannibal, Deeney, etc.

Now, maybe it’s me, but do Brum look stronger than last season….not to me they don’t.  Yet I bet most pundits will have them higher than last season’s 17th.  I don’t think the evidence is there.

Whereas for us, we’ve only really lost Dasilva, yet brought in four.  Not just numbers, but I think we look stronger as a result.

It's a pretty much impossible job to predict right, but there is the usual big-club bias in amongst it.

It's tough though. Is there a correlation between churn and table placement? I've looked at it briefly in seasons past and iirc the answer is "not really".

It's correct that you need to consider who has left as much as who signs, and the easiest way to tabulate that and reduce it to numbers is by looking at minutes played. 

But you've really got to, as you have here, dove into each team's particular players. For example losing a goal keeper might well see 4,000 minutes walk out of the door, and that shows a high churn. But if your new keeper is excellent then it's no issue.

"Churn" also, as I understand, doesn't account for academy promotion to first team as they don't show up as a new signing. So that's a consideration.

It's something to consider and look at, but as with everything it can't be done in isolation.

I agree on Brum though - I think they'll struggle. 

[Davefevs]

14 minutes ago, aa_bcfc said:

I wish I had this level of insight. 

No, you don’t….it’s a effing curse, I’ll tell you!  Don’t go there, you’ll never come back from Geeksville!

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's tough though. Is there a correlation between churn and table placement? I've looked at it briefly in seasons past and iirc the answer is "not really".

It's correct that you need to consider who has left as much as who signs, and the easiest way to tabulate that and reduce it to numbers is by looking at minutes played. 

But you've really got to, as you have here, dove into each team's particular players. For example losing a goal keeper might well see 4,000 minutes walk out of the door, and that shows a high churn. But if your new keeper is excellent then it's no issue.

"Churn" also, as I understand, doesn't account for academy promotion to first team as they don't show up as a new signing. So that's a consideration.

It's something to consider and look at, but as with everything it can't be done in isolation.

I agree on Brum though - I think they'll struggle. 

Some guy who supports QPR did some analysis of the last 5 years, and it basically said “if you’re crap and you churn, you stay crap, if you’re a relegated PP team, churn is ok”.  I guess you can read into that the PP clubs can replace with good players and the crap clubs are just replacing crap with crap.  Does that make sense?

[1960maaan]

Just one more opinion , and as we all know opinions are like arseholes , everybody has one. 

Really hope I'm right and I prove all the "experts" wrong . 

 

One thing I'll add though, it would be nice to have a full squad to pick from for most of the Season. If we can do that, I really think we have a chance to shake things up . I'd say top 10 would be possible and with a run of luck who knows, we could trouble 6th. 

Edited July 26, 2023 by 1960maaan

[ExiledAjax]

29 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Some guy who supports QPR did some analysis of the last 5 years, and it basically said “if you’re crap and you churn, you stay crap, if you’re a relegated PP team, churn is ok”.  I guess you can read into that the PP clubs can replace with good players and the crap clubs are just replacing crap with crap.  Does that make sense?

Birmingham were crap, and have churned...soooooo.

[1960maaan]

17 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Birmingham were crap, and have churned...soooooo.

Crapper ?

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by 1960maaan

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, 1960maaan said:

Crapper ?

Churn the crapper?

[1960maaan]

5 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Churn the crapper?

We've all had nights like that 

[supercidered]

Firstly, I need be clear on one thing. I really don't like Luton. I don't like the Town, I don't like the football club and I don't like Luton fans (and probably in that order).

All the fairy tale stuff spouted about Luton really boiled my p!ss last season.

However, I feel our squad and general feel around the place is as good as it's been for some time. Is our squad and management  /coaching team for this season inferior to Luton Town FC of last season?

I'm not proclaiming that we are going to finish top 6 and or then get promoted but I do think we could surprise a lot of people this season, even some of our own supporters.

Praying that what is happening now is the beginning of something special and not another false dawn. I know, it's the hope that kills you. 

 

 

[Not Banksy]

9 hours ago, chinapig said:

His channel is excellent. At least when he makes predictions he seems to actually know about the clubs and usually applies some logic. Not always the case with others.

Yeah.. knows his stuff for sure.. listening to everything he was saying I was like.. “yeah, fair play”

[Davefevs]

I watched it earlier.  I loved his ending too…so true.

I like his rationale / logic, don’t agree with everything (who would?) but not off the cuff stuff is it?

[Bedred31]

League as a whole looks a fair bit stronger than in recent years. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Leicester fall away and I think Southampton could really struggle. Don’t think any team will run away like Burnley last year, and I would be surprised if any team is seriously adrift at the bottom. Keep an eye on Coventry and Millwall, and Norwich and Stoke could bounce back. I genuinely think we could struggle with relegation or just as easily mount a real challenge. Championship next season is  really everything a competitive league should be and I haven’t looked forward to a new season as much in years.

 

[Ostrich]

Maybe I spend too much time around fellow Leicester fans/reading what our fans say and you’d find many a happier funeral but I’m surprised so many of these predictions put us up at the top. I always think Southampton currently look stronger, they spent last couple of summers building a Championship squad.

I don’t really see that the league is particularly strong and expect much of it to turn out to be dogshit which gives me some hope but right now we’ll at least be slow to start I think. We’re pissing around playing pub sides in Thailand ffs, week late on pre-season, fewer pre-season games, have no wide players, a lack of creativity, uncertainty over a ton of players that didn’t want to be here anyway, a relatively expensive CB injured for the first time in his career, a multi-season history of piling up injuries. 

We will see but there’s so much still to do in the transfer market in and out that I’ll have no idea on us until September 

[Cityboy1954]

11 hours ago, Spike said:

I think mid-table is what most people will say for us. I mean when you look at the other teams and the kind of signings some of them are making, we're still not hitting the headlines because our transfer business has been shrewd. I also think we'll struggle to make top 6 unless we have one hell of a run of form by finding a lineup that is consistent and performs very well, something that would be all the more likely if we didn't already have 6 injuries going into the season.

I know I may sound negative but I like to think I don't get carried away, I'm a little over 40 and I think I can already count 15 seasons of our fans talking about having the standout season only for us to achieve it once out of all 15 and even then we fell short at the end. I think this season will be a case of getting the squad working well with each other in different set ups and then maybe if we're still pushing along well come the end of it the next window will allow us to make the final few signings, maybe a marquee signing Scott goes and the finances allow it.

I'm still hoping we perform above expectations but I don't think any of these predictions are insulting... well, unless you're WBA maybe.

I agree some good signings but still lacking in a few places back up keeper a  centre back attacking midfielder and a ball winner upfront if things not working out with Tommy an Bell .

[Nugget]

Such a tough league this Year, I love the Championship, the 23/24  emotional rollercoaster is nearly here keep the squad fit & we’ll have a good go 

[Davefevs]

My 1-24.

Very tough.

[Show Me The Money!]

This blog seems pretty close i think to a lot of fans current feelings on our success this season.

The72.co.uk

 

[aa_bcfc]

8 hours ago, Davefevs said:

My 1-24.

Very tough.

I’d be delighted with that. A season not looking over our shoulder would suit me just fine. 

[Silvio Dante]

I think the thing for me here is that I can’t make a coherent case for an “absolute” top six. Sunderland’s success last year was based on loanees who have gone, Blackburn either won or lost and look weaker and Boro have had huge turnover. Of the relegated sides, Soton and Leicester look well placed, but Leeds look transitional. Coventry, despite the loss of VG, look the best bet for me of last years top 8 to make a renewed run.

I can however make a decent case for the bottom third - Wednesday look weak, QPR have done nothing to address their free fall, Rotherham lack quality, Huddersfield seem questionable as post the Warnock firefight can he build? Preston also seem lacking as do Cardiff and I’d put Blackburn as a dark horse to be there. JDT has threatened to leave and Ennis is no Diaz. They either won or lost and were in a false position last year IMO.

I don’t get the media obsession with Hull as a dark horse and I think it’s coloured by Rosenior being a hugely popular figure in the media. Plymouth and Ipswich I think will be fine but lack top half quality.

What I’m saying is scratch below the surface and you can make a case for 10-12 clubs hitting top six. We’re in that pack, it’s just where you land.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Silvio Dante said:

I think the thing for me here is that I can’t make a coherent case for an “absolute” top six. Sunderland’s success last year was based on loanees who have gone, Blackburn either won or lost and look weaker and Boro have had huge turnover. Of the relegated sides, Soton and Leicester look well placed, but Leeds look transitional. Coventry, despite the loss of VG, look the best bet for me of last years top 8 to make a renewed run.

I can however make a decent case for the bottom third - Wednesday look weak, QPR have done nothing to address their free fall, Rotherham lack quality, Huddersfield seem questionable as post the Warnock firefight can he build? Preston also seem lacking as do Cardiff and I’d put Blackburn as a dark horse to be there. JDT has threatened to leave and Ennis is no Diaz. They either won or lost and were in a false position last year IMO.

I don’t get the media obsession with Hull as a dark horse and I think it’s coloured by Rosenior being a hugely popular figure in the media. Plymouth and Ipswich I think will be fine but lack top half quality.

What I’m saying is scratch below the surface and you can make a case for 10-12 clubs hitting top six. We’re in that pack, it’s just where you land.

It’s definitely easier to pick 5 or 6 of the teams you think will struggle.  But after that it’s really hard.  Coventry are spending rather than loaning, Birmingham too.  Cov just spent £3.4m tonight on a RB / RWB.

[cidercity1987]

13 hours ago, Davefevs said:

My 1-24.

Very tough.

This one looks as sensible as any tbf. Just intrigued why Stoke are so high when they finished quite a way below us and have struggled to recruit so far?

[Davefevs]

11 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

This one looks as sensible as any tbf. Just intrigued why Stoke are so high when they finished quite a way below us and have struggled to recruit so far?

1) they’ve signed a goalkeeper rather than have a bombscare in Lumley between the sticks.

2) Neil is gradually rebuilding his squad into one that will grind out results.

3) I don’t see some of the players that have left being any great loss

But that’s just me.