Tapping the nest egg for Manning

[Mr Popodopolous]

Putting aside justified criticism of the potential difference in NP v Manning, how much of this nest egg will be tapped open, released.

I will look at the 4 years of Lee Johnson and see if it offers a guide, it's quite a long post yes. Using Additions plus wage increase minus Profit on Disposal and taking a % reinvested back in.

2016-17

Additions- £13,648,280

Profit on Disposal- £13,603,739

Wage Increase- £2,458,880

% Reinvested in the side- 118%

2017-18

Additions- £11,985,356

Profit on Disposal- £296,625

Wage Increase- £5,187,960

% Reinvested in the side- 5,789%

2018-19

Additions- £10,153,500

Profit on Disposal- £38,159,454

Wage Increase- £1,536,670

% Reinvested in the side- 30.635%

2019-20

Additions- £26,279,102

Profit on Disposal- £25,587,872

Wage Increase- £2,736,720

% Reinvested in the side- 113.39%

Gross Fees and I assume loan fees etc paid

£62,066,238

Gross Profit on Disposal

£77,647,690

Gross increase in wages on the Football Club side

£11,920,230

Total % Reinvested in the side

95.561%!

Of course there were income rises too at BCFC Holdings level and if anyone wants to do that side and a wider calculation..good luck and please do!

We really were quite expansive weren't we.

Edited November 8, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

Minor point - should you also include total wage increase, ie take the starting position and add each year’s increase from the baseline?

E.g. baseline 15/16 - £15.437m x 4 years = £61.748m

Total 16/17 to 19/20 = £92.956m

Therefore increased wage spend of £31.208m

 

Thoughts?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Yea perhaps.

Could also do it in % terms, both year on year or as an average.

That was surely the most expansive era in our history, NP was largely fiscal retrenchment and firefigjting. Cotts might and I stress the term might have gained benefits of the stadium completion, rising T.V. and commercial revenue from summer 2016 had things come differently there, perhaps he displays a touch more pragmatism during that first season. 

What will Manning get now though, this will be intriguing to see.

Kinda thinking, as a %, how much.. 

Should be reinvested back in

And perhaps more realistically

Will be reinvested back in.

ie £10m Profit on Disposal, £7-8m across gross fees.and wages? (Yes I know amortisation and ongoing commitments with wages). Plus offsetting vs wage savings obvs.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Starting wage for the FC in 2015-16, was.

£15,436,725

By end of 2019-20, it was.

£27,356,955

I must also apologise, think it was 95.28% having put the numbers in again.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[robinforlife2]

Listening to Lansdown's piece yesterday and him saying there will be little activity in January, I suspect very little money will be offered to Manning. Perhaps if we finish top 10 this season, then some may be released in the summer. But, I get the impression, that he has to work with this squad and whilst he may be able to add one or two in January, nothing of any significance would happen until the summer, and I suspect that a higher earner like Williams will be let go, Weimann will move on and King will retire, to free up wages, to bring in 3/4 promising young players with sell on value. 

[GrahamC]

26 minutes ago, robinforlife2 said:

Listening to Lansdown's piece yesterday and him saying there will be little activity in January, I suspect very little money will be offered to Manning. Perhaps if we finish top 10 this season, then some may be released in the summer. But, I get the impression, that he has to work with this squad and whilst he may be able to add one or two in January, nothing of any significance would happen until the summer, and I suspect that a higher earner like Williams will be let go, Weimann will move on and King will retire, to free up wages, to bring in 3/4 promising young players with sell on value. 

Pretty much my thoughts.

Unless they’re lying it looks like he’s getting no more money than Pearson would have.

Tinnion said in his interview last week that only 3 players are out of contract next summer, which suggests as @Davefevs has been hinting, that Weimann has triggered another year, meaning that is presumably Williams, James & King.

Pretty sure the likes of Idehen & Wiles-Richards are too, but assume he meant the senior pros.

[johnbytheriver]

JL seemed very unsure of himself in the press conference,why is he chairman? Oh yeah ! his dad owns the club.The biggest case of nepotism since pope Alexander 2nd(Rodrigo Borgia) made his son CAESARE a cardinal in the late 15th century.

[cheese]

31 minutes ago, johnbytheriver said:

JL seemed very unsure of himself in the press conference,why is he chairman? Oh yeah ! his dad owns the club.The biggest case of nepotism since pope Alexander 2nd(Rodrigo Borgia) made his son CAESARE a cardinal in the late 15th century.

And followed by Charlotte Owen's trip to the Lord's. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Will watch the JL and Manning intro later. A tightish budget then we think, similar parameters to NP? Perhaps TGH permanently in January?

TV money goes up by several million next season, that is irrespective of any wider redistribution agreement.

46% rise in TV money albeit that is separate to the Solidarity Payment aspect I believe.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

Pretty much my thoughts.

Unless they’re lying it looks like he’s getting no more money than Pearson would have.

Tinnion said in his interview last week that only 3 players are out of contract next summer, which suggests as @Davefevs has been hinting, that Weimann has triggered another year, meaning that is presumably Williams, James & King.

Pretty sure the likes of Idehen & Wiles-Richards are too, but assume he meant the senior pros.

I think much will depend on whether 23 man squad is sufficient to cover a normal amount of injuries, and whether LM thinks the Academy players can cover if needed.

Heres my view of the 23 - don’t get too fixed on positions though:

Posn: Senior / Academy

GK: O’Leary, Bajic / Wiles-Richards (Thomas covering his injury)

RB: Tanner, McCrorie / J.James, Leeson

LB: Pring, Roberts

CB: Vyner, Dickie, Naismith, Atkinson / Knight-Lebel

DM: M.James, King / Taylor-Clarke

AM: Knight, Williams, Weimann, Gardner-Hickman, Benarous / Backwell (assumes TGH remains here either on loan or perm)

RF: Sykes, Cornick / Yeboah

CF: Conway, Wells / Palmer-Houlden

LF: Bell / Mehmeti

As it stands we have 20 players if you remove the 3 long-term injured, who don’t have a true return date yet.  Those 3 might dictate what happens in January.

[Major Isewater]

2 hours ago, johnbytheriver said:

The biggest case of nepotism since pope Alexander 2nd(Rodrigo Borgia) made his son CAESARE a cardinal in the late 15th century

You should have seen the uproar on their forum. 

[bcfc01]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think much will depend on whether 23 man squad is sufficient to cover a normal amount of injuries, and whether LM thinks the Academy players can cover if needed.

Heres my view of the 23 - don’t get too fixed on positions though:

Posn: Senior / Academy

GK: O’Leary, Bajic / Wiles-Richards (Thomas covering his injury)

RB: Tanner, McCrorie / J.James, Leeson

LB: Pring, Roberts

CB: Vyner, Dickie, Naismith, Atkinson / Knight-Lebel

DM: M.James, King / Taylor-Clarke

AM: Knight, Williams, Weimann, Gardner-Hickman, Benarous / Backwell (assumes TGH remains here either on loan or perm)

RF: Sykes, Cornick / Yeboah

CF: Conway, Wells / Palmer-Houlden

LF: Bell / Mehmeti

As it stands we have 20 players if you remove the 3 long-term injured, who don’t have a true return date yet.  Those 3 might dictate what happens in January.

Just to add Raphael Araoye to your list that I think could be good cover, coming back from injury.

Really like the look of him, big and strong, but also very good on the ball. 

Left sided defender has played first team football from age 17 albeit not in a competitive game, always on the radar of NP, 19 now so this and next season should hopefully break through.

[Mendip City]

20 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think much will depend on whether 23 man squad is sufficient to cover a normal amount of injuries, and whether LM thinks the Academy players can cover if needed.

Heres my view of the 23 - don’t get too fixed on positions though:

Posn: Senior / Academy

GK: O’Leary, Bajic / Wiles-Richards (Thomas covering his injury)

RB: Tanner, McCrorie / J.James, Leeson

LB: Pring, Roberts

CB: Vyner, Dickie, Naismith, Atkinson / Knight-Lebel

DM: M.James, King / Taylor-Clarke

AM: Knight, Williams, Weimann, Gardner-Hickman, Benarous / Backwell (assumes TGH remains here either on loan or perm)

RF: Sykes, Cornick / Yeboah

CF: Conway, Wells / Palmer-Houlden

LF: Bell / Mehmeti

As it stands we have 20 players if you remove the 3 long-term injured, who don’t have a true return date yet.  Those 3 might dictate what happens in January.

Agree, I really hope we don’t grow the squad too much. 
Looking at your list, I’d think Benarous is a space - he’s played senior football but if/when he comes back (let’s hope he does but it’s been a very long time) he’ll likely be back to “prospect” status rather than first teamer. 
A bit off topic but seeing that list graphically explains to me just how off the mark JL’s assessment of us being play-off quality is…. I think we’re still where we have been for a while, lower-mid-table and slowly improving to genuine mid-table, with a fair wind and bit of injury luck we could be top 8. 
I hope I’m wrong and Manning can get the extra 20%+ out of this squad that’s going to be required to hit the ownership’s target.  

 

[GrahamC]

21 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Just to add Raphael Araoye to your list that I think could be good cover, coming back from injury.

Really like the look of him, big and strong, but also very good on the ball. 

Left sided defender has played first team football from age 17 albeit not in a competitive game, always on the radar of NP, 19 now so this and next season should hopefully break through.

Araoye has played a fair number of 21 games of late, so not sure when this injury was.

Pearson said (without naming him) that one or two who had been on the bench had been struggling for the 21s so needed to take a step back.

Obviously that is history now & presumably everyone there has a fresh start, so will be interesting to see if anyone in the ignored category (which is 5 or 6) do feature in the squad.

Certainly the case that at Cardiff with a decimated squad none of them were thought to be worthy of a place on the bench by NP despite it being one short & also including a second goalkeeper.

[Davefevs]

48 minutes ago, bcfc01 said:

Just to add Raphael Araoye to your list that I think could be good cover, coming back from injury.

Really like the look of him, big and strong, but also very good on the ball. 

Left sided defender has played first team football from age 17 albeit not in a competitive game, always on the radar of NP, 19 now so this and next season should hopefully break through.

@GrahamC already covered.  From watching bits and pieces he appears to be one who’s got a “bit big for his size”, ie filled out (boy, he’s a unit) but is t strong, agile enough to carry that frame…if that makes sense.  I saw Joe Low similarly.  He was more Lloyd Kelly’s athletic build at the start of last season.  He’ll come good, but I think he’s stopped back because of the body stuff.

35 minutes ago, Mendip City said:

Agree, I really hope we don’t grow the squad too much. 
Looking at your list, I’d think Benarous is a space - he’s played senior football but if/when he comes back (let’s hope he does but it’s been a very long time) he’ll likely be back to “prospect” status rather than first teamer. 
A bit off topic but seeing that list graphically explains to me just how off the mark JL’s assessment of us being play-off quality is…. I think we’re still where we have been for a while, lower-mid-table and slowly improving to genuine mid-table, with a fair wind and bit of injury luck we could be top 8. 
I hope I’m wrong and Manning can get the extra 20%+ out of this squad that’s going to be required to hit the ownership’s target.  

 

I wavered on putting Benarous to the right of the “slash”, but he made a big impact in his early games, I left him as senior.

[bcfc01]

2 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

@GrahamC already covered.  From watching bits and pieces he appears to be one who’s got a “bit big for his size”, ie filled out (boy, he’s a unit) but is t strong, agile enough to carry that frame…if that makes sense.  I saw Joe Low similarly.  He was more Lloyd Kelly’s athletic build at the start of last season.  He’ll come good, but I think he’s stopped back because of the body stuff.

 

Yeah, It happens to a lot of young players. He's been a big lad since 17 when I saw him in pre-season at Bournemouth a year or two ago, couldn't believe he was 17. He's probably now fully grown and I do expect him to kick on this or start of next season. 

 

[bcfc01]

36 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Araoye has played a fair number of 21 games of late, so not sure when this injury was.

Pearson said (without naming him) that one or two who had been on the bench had been struggling for the 21s so needed to take a step back.

Obviously that is history now & presumably everyone there has a fresh start, so will be interesting to see if anyone in the ignored category (which is 5 or 6) do feature in the squad.

Certainly the case that at Cardiff with a decimated squad none of them were thought to be worthy of a place on the bench by NP despite it being one short & also including a second goalkeeper.

I saw that as a message to the younger players that you don't automatically get on the bench, you have to earn it.

The only two that came out of that game with any credit were Pearson and Araoye imo. Francois came into the game later on, but too little too late. A lot of those players are playing for their future so it was a disappointing game from that perspective.

[Fjmcity]

6 hours ago, johnbytheriver said:

JL seemed very unsure of himself in the press conference,why is he chairman? Oh yeah ! his dad owns the club.The biggest case of nepotism since pope Alexander 2nd(Rodrigo Borgia) made his son CAESARE a cardinal in the late 15th century.

At least you didn’t go over the top