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who are these GHOST experts who say refs get 85% right?


Never to the dark side

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A panel - introduced this season - is made up of five ex-players and coaches, as well as a representative from the EFL and refereeing body, the PGMOL.

Saying officials get 85 per cent correct.

Don't think they have attended any Bristol City games,as the "correct rate" would then fall below 50 per cent

Me thinks its like marking your own homework

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26 minutes ago, Never to the dark side said:

A panel - introduced this season - is made up of five ex-players and coaches, as well as a representative from the EFL and refereeing body, the PGMOL.

Saying officials get 85 per cent correct.

Don't think they have attended any Bristol City games,as the "correct rate" would then fall below 50 per cent

Me thinks its like marking your own homework

Could you highlight one game J?

 

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1 hour ago, Never to the dark side said:

A panel - introduced this season - is made up of five ex-players and coaches, as well as a representative from the EFL and refereeing body, the PGMOL.

Saying officials get 85 per cent correct.

Don't think they have attended any Bristol City games,as the "correct rate" would then fall below 50 per cent

Me thinks its like marking your own homework

Refereeing decision are  subjective John and because of that referees get criticised largely by the fans who frequently see various decisions differently.

Managers these days are financially gagged by the PGMOL if they publicly criticise a referee.

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2 hours ago, Never to the dark side said:

A panel - introduced this season - is made up of five ex-players and coaches, as well as a representative from the EFL and refereeing body, the PGMOL.

Saying officials get 85 per cent correct.

Don't think they have attended any Bristol City games,as the "correct rate" would then fall below 50 per cent

Me thinks its like marking your own homework

I’ll share the article to help https://www.efl.com/news/2023/december/19/key-match-incidents-panel-reveals-correct-referee-decisions-at-85--so-far-this-season/

It’s key incidents, not all incidents and averages about 2.5 per game.

It’s an independent panel of ex players and coaches so don’t think it’s “marking your own homework”.

I don’t really think this figure necessarily tells us much by itself though.

It’s easy for a few people to watch several different angles and slow motion of an incident and come up with a judgement.

You’d need to investigate the decision making, and consider positioning and speed of play for each one.

If the refs got a decision wrong because his positioning or keeping up with the game was at fault then that needs dealing with.

If he’s got it “wrong” because the one angle he had was a very different view to the cameras then it’s a little unfair to judge.

Either way I don’t think its anything like 50% or less, always have to include supporter bias in these discussions too.

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3 hours ago, Never to the dark side said:

A panel - introduced this season - is made up of five ex-players and coaches, as well as a representative from the EFL and refereeing body, the PGMOL.

Saying officials get 85 per cent correct.

Don't think they have attended any Bristol City games,as the "correct rate" would then fall below 50 per cent

Me thinks its like marking your own homework

Do you mean the PGMOL who look after the Premier League?

Referees, About PGMOL | Premier League

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It’s an easy claim, I guess over 85% of decisions are obvious (striker shoots , sends ball 20 foot over the stand, decision , goal kick), it’s getting the 15% of contested decisions 100% wrong that is the problem.

To solve the problem, however,you need to begin by getting the players to improve their behaviour. If they are going to try and cheat by diving , feigning injury etc then you can’t blame the referee for occasionally getting duped. Do you blame the householder or the burglar for the crime ?

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13 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

It’s an easy claim, I guess over 85% of decisions are obvious (striker shoots , sends ball 20 foot over the stand, decision , goal kick), it’s getting the 15% of contested decisions 100% wrong that is the problem.

To solve the problem, however,you need to begin by getting the players to improve their behaviour. If they are going to try and cheat by diving , feigning injury etc then you can’t blame the referee for occasionally getting duped. Do you blame the householder or the burglar for the crime ?

Worth reading the article…it’s not 85% of all decisions, it’s 85% of key decisions….what is deemed a key decision is in the link.

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56 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Worth reading the article…it’s not 85% of all decisions, it’s 85% of key decisions….what is deemed a key decision is in the link.

Before VAR and during the trials I heard (may have been Mike Dean) claim that during VAR trials ref's were getting 96% of key decisions right and VAR would be the difference to 100%.

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30 minutes ago, Sir Geoff said:

Before VAR and during the trials I heard (may have been Mike Dean) claim that during VAR trials ref's were getting 96% of key decisions right and VAR would be the difference to 100%.

Mike Dean says a lot of things...most of which is complete rubbish. (Just quoting for the Mike Dean reference).

I have a perception that VAR probably has about a 50:50 rate of overturning bad decisions to overturning good decisions. Rendering it pointless.

I see that the article is about EFL so is not really about VAR, but also looking at tge criteria in the article it doesn't include some shocking bits of officiating from prevous games:

Norwich game, the linesman 1st half Norwich player stretches for a ball that no exegeration was about a yard out of play (I had as good a view as you can have at the top of the Lansdown) I look down to see where the linesman is and he's runing along not even at the 18 yard box by then with over half the players on the pitch closer to the line than him all looking over in disbelief that a goalkick hasn't been given.

The incident vs Sunderland where ref plays advantage when there was none (isolated player with about 3 defenders around him), then makes it 2for1 by not going vack and booking the player for a clear bookable offence).

Its that type of decision that is just so obviously and bafflingly bad that wont be picked up by these stats.

There are certain referees, Andy Davies and James Linnington spring to mind that whenever you see them Ref any game they just seem to be so consistant with their bad decisions that you question how on earth they can be considered a competant referee. I do think for the most part most refs are ok and that the 85% metric is probably about right and acceptable.

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1 hour ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Getting 15% of decisions wrong seems a bit frightening to me.  5%?  Maybe just acceptable…

Refs do not get 15% of decisions wrong.

What was studied here were key decisions, not all decisions. Amongst the study were subjective decisions because some laws of the game are subjective. 

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7 hours ago, Grey Fox said:

It’s an easy claim, I guess over 85% of decisions are obvious (striker shoots , sends ball 20 foot over the stand, decision , goal kick), it’s getting the 15% of contested decisions 100% wrong that is the problem.

To solve the problem, however,you need to begin by getting the players to improve their behaviour. If they are going to try and cheat by diving , feigning injury etc then you can’t blame the referee for occasionally getting duped. Do you blame the householder or the burglar for the crime ?

 

3 minutes ago, Grey Fox said:

I did read it, wether you say “key” or “contested”, it is basically the same thing.

Your original post above for reference. It’s 15% of the contested decision wrong. Let’s say 85% of all decisions are trivial / uncontested, then it’s 15% of the remaining 15% (2.25%) they are getting wrong. 

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When left to their own devices and without external interference such as VAR I would of thought the percentage of correct decisions made by referees is above 90%. I certainly believe that to be true of linesmen too who are capable of determining offsides without the need to draw gridlines. it will never be 100% as some decisions will be subjective or contentious and these can skew the perception of performance. It would be interesting to know the actual level of VAR performance whose accuracy seems barely above 50%. 

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1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

 

Your original post above for reference. It’s 15% of the contested decision wrong. Let’s say 85% of all decisions are trivial / uncontested, then it’s 15% of the remaining 15% (2.25%) they are getting wrong. 

It’s Christmas, the perfect time to get out more.

Enjoy the season, Merry Christmas to you and yours

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16 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

Your original post above for reference. It’s 15% of the contested decision wrong. Let’s say 85% of all decisions are trivial / uncontested, then it’s 15% of the remaining 15% (2.25%) they are getting wrong. 

Were you cheating? Refs have been assessed as being correct 98% of the time.

Referee myth-busting: How many decisions do officials get right? | Football News | Sky Sports

 

 

 

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On 22/12/2023 at 09:32, Robbored said:

 

Managers these days are financially gagged by the PGMOL if they publicly criticise a referee.

Managers are publicly frequently criticise refs and their not not gagged by the pgmol. This should be stopped by the EPL and FA as Managers are putting refs ion danger with their abuse. 

On 22/12/2023 at 08:06, Never to the dark side said:

Don't think they have attended any Bristol City games,as the "correct rate" would then fall below 50 per cent

Me thinks its like marking your own homework

Bullshit.

You get 50% of your work on the choo choo wrong. Doesnt happen does it?

 

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29 minutes ago, Three Lions said:

Managers are publicly frequently criticise refs and their not not gagged by the pgmol. This should be stopped by the EPL and FA as Managers are putting refs ion danger with their abuse. 

What!? You must be joking. Nige was fined last season for criticising the referee’s performance. The next time he was unhappy with the refs performance he widened his criticism to the poor standard of refereeing rather than the match official.

Plenty of other managers who’ve done the same have been fined by the PGMOL - that’s pretty much a gagging order and why we don’t see it anywhere near as often as we used to. We all remember Neil Warnock - he must have paid thousands in fines!

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28 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Plenty of other managers who’ve done the same have been fined by the PGMOL

 

It is not within the PGMOL's power to gag or fine Managers.

31 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Plenty of other managers who’ve done the same have been fined by the PGMOL

Fined by? The FA.  

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Haha, nah, lucky guess!

Could you explain how these figures are calculated? I could not. Subjective decisions cannot have a unequivocal right. 

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