The Play Offs & Points Needed

[Bristol Boy]

OK.

Lots of people are posting & talking about the play offs.Usual questions, points needed, feasible or not etc, etc.

So:

Based on the previous fours seasons, the teams finishing 6th have needed the following points and lost this many games in acheiving that total:

01-02 78 L10

02-03 81 L11

03-04 73 L13

04-05 71 L17

One stat is that the games lost is increasing, which is just as well as we've lost 12 already

We don't draw many under GJ and that could be important.

This divison is far worst than in previous years IMHO,so I think it's fair to say that the points total will be closer to 70 than 80 points and could even be just 70.

On that basis we need 40 points from 20 games.

9H Poss 27 11A Poss 33 = 60.

IF we can win all the home games including Swansea & Brentford that would give us 57 points and we would need between 13-16 points from the 11 away games to reach what I think would be 5/6th place.

13 from 33 might not sound a lot, but it's 39% of the points total away or 27 points a season from away games.

Swansea are top and averaging 48% from away games and Barnsley are 6th and they're on 36%, so, whilst not impossible, it's tough.

No one in the Division has a 100% home record, so that compounds it.

My view?

We'll continue winning at home, with the odd draw and win away and reach upper mid table respectability-10th-13th.

Whilst not impossible to reach the play offs, unless GJ has some very special players coming in, that assimilate very quickly and the ones we have play out of their skin, it's very unlikely.

Based on the above, GJ's advice to the players is simple-"Just Keep Winning & You'll Be Champions"

Still, there's always next year

[budbcfc]

christ!...... i got a headache already.

[Rednready]

The last 2 DW seasons and the Tinnion season it was the silly draws that kept us from promotion.

It will be no different this year, in fact 2 draws in the last 6 ?