Bubble Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 This makes an interesting readR Points = Relegation ie 4th from bottomp Points = Play off points ie 6thVar = variance between Play off points and relegation PointsSeason Games R Points P Points Var2006 29 32 45 132005 46 51 71 202004 46 50 73 232003 46 48 81 332002 46 44 78 34First thing that sticks out is how much tighter the division has got over the years.Based on the above table the average points per game needed areSeason Games R Points P Points2006 29 1.10 1.552005 46 1.11 1.542004 46 1.09 1.592003 46 1.04 1.762002 46 0.96 1.70Therefore if this trend continues then the following will be the outcome of thisseason and the number of points that will result in R (relegation) and P (P Off)will beSeason R Points P Points2006 51 71Ok now over to the current situation and what we need 39 Points from 17 gamesI am not even going to calculate that out!!More importantly and lets put this in perspective with our goal difference we need20 Points from 17 Games to ensure safetySomeone can now plot the fixtures left against this and then we can open upthe debate.May be we should look at this again weekly?Let battle commence, as we have always said we are the perceived "Big" boys inthis divsion (not the only ones) so when the smaller clubs come and no disrespectto any of them, they raise their game. You can imagine the managers of theopposition now come lets send those arrogant (place yuor own word) down!Without doom or glum coming into this I reckon we have a tough battle ahead, theteam need to roll there sleeves up and sod the beautiful game, and we as fanshave to treat it like a promotion seaon and get right behind them and now!Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mnporter2001 Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 ive done the calcs its simple we win all 17 games +51 pts and safety but no seriously bumble that is good and i see what you mean aboutt the table tighting i think it could even be more than 51 pts to stay up. but tell you want did catch my eye was that in your prediction theres just 20 points between play off and relegation that is not alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Posted January 25, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 Good point about the diffrence of 20 oints I meant to add that in my summary so apologies. If as you say it will be more than 51 points needed, then the difference between P off and relegation will be even closer!!!It just shows you in this division at the start of the season it could be anyone who wins it or goes down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thornbury Red Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 More importantly and lets put this in perspective with our goal difference we need20 Points from 17 Games to ensure safety6 Wins, 2 Draws, 9 DefeatsShould be attainable i would think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red_Mat Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 6 Wins, 2 Draws, 9 DefeatsShould be attainable i would think!Well worked out, Bubble! And as Thornbury Red states: 6 wins and 2 draws. Against who, though?Let's look at this pessimistically:At home: Swindon and Gillingham - we should be good for a couple of wins there. Yeovil and Bournemouth (once they've both sold all their players) - we should be good for at least one win against them, too.The rest of our home games (Swansea, Brentford, Forest and Oldham) are going to be more difficult. Maybe a win against one of those and at least one draw, too.That's four wins and one draw, so far.Now away:Barnsley and Southend - nope, they'll be too good for us.S****horpe, Rotherham, MK Dons and Hartlepool - they way they're all playing, we could get a couple of wins and a draw there.Bradford and Walsall - reckon we could get at least a draw there.And Tranmere - well, we always seem to play well there...So I make that six wins and three draws, at the very least.Well, it's going to be very tight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Posted January 25, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 21 Points hey! that would be a little to close for comfort, lets hope we don't need points on the last game of the season, I could not handle that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loderingo Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 The bookies are a bit more upbeat on our chances anyway. Now rated only 8th most likely for the drop from 4th/5th last month.Stan James:MK Dons 2/9Swindle 4/9Roth'm 4/7Black 8/11Hartp 9/4Gills 9/4Scun 11/4City 7/2Vale 4/1Wall 11/2Tran 13/2Yeov 8/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Posted January 25, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 Trust me I am not being pessimistic just stating the possibilities, i remain unconvinced as to this supposed we have turned the corner. No doubt the football is better but we all need to drive it forward and quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Boy Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 I did two posts yesterday and came to almost the same conclusion.50 points could be enough, although, as everyone is beating everyone else, it's an awful division, I said 53 safe and it could be less than 70 to achieve the play offs.The bookies are a bit more upbeat on our chances anyway. Now rated only 8th most likely for the drop from 4th/5th last month.Stan James:MK Dons 2/9Swindle 4/9Roth'm 4/7Black 8/11Hartp 9/4Gills 9/4Scun 11/4City 7/2Vale 4/1Wall 11/2Tran 13/2Yeov 8/1The Gills home form which is almost the best in the Division, only Forest have won more games, will keep them up and, if they ever start winning away don't write them off for the play offs.Yeovil could be a good bet as they have lost key players and have Skiverton, their Sean Taylor out for two months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Dolman Posted January 25, 2006 Report Share Posted January 25, 2006 I did two posts yesterday and came to almost the same conclusion.50 points could be enough, although, as everyone is beating everyone else, it's an awful division, I said 53 safe and it could be less than 70 to achieve the play offs.The Gills home form which is almost the best in the Division, only Forest have won more games, will keep them up and, if they ever start winning away don't write them off for the play offs.Yeovil could be a good bet as they have lost key players and have Skiverton, their Sean Taylor out for two months.I think that Yeovil & Hartlepool could plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubble Posted January 30, 2006 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 Update!To avoid relegation based on last weeks calculations 16 games left 17 Points relegation should be avoided, 36 Points for play offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 About ######** 20 to many for your lot Oh go away you bitter, bitter, little man. Be a sport and admit that on this occasion you were beaten by the better team which kept it's discipline better, and move on. 1 win in 10 and disrupting your squad by buying so many players so quickly, should be of more concern than whether we can stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sheepie Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 Oh go away you bitter, bitter, little man. Be a sport and admit that on this occasion you were beaten by the better team which kept it's discipline better, and move on. 1 win in 10 and disrupting your squad by buying so many players so quickly, should be of more concern than whether we can stay up.BubbleConcern, just a dip in form which a couple of home wins will put right (still 4th mind you).Already stated "the better team won on the day". Wanted it more than us.However it was one of the days when the underdogs raised their game whilst the superiorfootballing team had an "off day". Think you may find it difficult to raise your "fighting game"to that level each week.However we're not bitter, I wish you the best of luck itnyour fight against relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 BubbleConcern, just a dip in form which a couple of home wins will put right (still 4th mind you).Already stated "the better team won on the day". Wanted it more than us.However it was one of the days when the underdogs raised their game whilst the superiorfootballing team had an "off day". Think you may find it difficult to raise your "fighting game"to that level each week.However we're not bitter, I wish you the best of luck itnyour fight against relegation. Thank you for the more considered post, on your penultimate point 1 defeat in the last 10 for us suggests that we can "raise our game". I actually thought that what we did was fight for our right to play football, I believe you need to do both things at this level.Oh and I am not Bubble, he started the thread I just contributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sheepie Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 Thank you for the more considered post, on your penultimate point 1 defeat in the last 10 for us suggests that we can "raise our game". I actually thought that what we did was fight for our right to play football, I believe you need to do both things at this level.Oh and I am not Bubble, he started the thread I just contributed.Apologies for getting your name wrongAnd I agree with your statement, "you need to fight for your right to play".Didn't think there was a great deal of football played.As you rightfully said, time to move on.Good luck in your relegation fight.Swansea Jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red_Mat Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 However it was one of the days when the underdogs raised their game whilst the superiorfootballing team had an "off day". Think you may find it difficult to raise your "fighting game"to that level each week.However we're not bitter, I wish you the best of luck itnyour fight against relegation. You clearly haven't watched us play over the last few weeks, have you?Since around mid-December, that kind of performance has been standard-fare for us. Since the God-knows-how-many-straight defeats, we've really turned it around, and on current form, we're one of the best teams in the division. So thanks for your concern, but I don't think we need it.However, may I offer you my best wishes in your continuing effort to remain in the play-off positions. And to think, not so long you were firm favourites to walk away with this division..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedTop Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 Think you may find it difficult to raise your "fighting game" to that level each week.I doubt we'll have to raise uour 'fighting' game to that level for the rest of the season. I've not seen a dirtier side more hell-bent on cheating than you lot all year.And on the basis of that display I can't see you staying in the play-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE23Red Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 Concern, just a dip in form which a couple of home wins will put right (still 4th mind you).That'll be an eight game dip in form will it? Good to see you taking up a relegation position in the form table with us comfortably in the playoffs From:http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D2/oform.html1 Colchester United (2) 8 6 1 1 15 6 9 1.87 0.75 2.37 19 WWwWwlWd 2 Southend United (1) 8 5 3 0 12 4 8 1.50 0.50 2.25 18 WdWdwWwD 3 Tranmere Rovers (14) 8 3 5 0 9 3 6 1.12 0.37 1.75 14 dDdDWwWd 4 Bristol City (19) 8 3 4 1 13 8 5 1.62 1.00 1.62 13 lWdlDWdWd 5 Blackpool (16) 8 4 1 3 12 10 2 1.50 1.25 1.62 13 wWDlWLlw ....21 Swansea City (4) 8 1 4 3 7 8 -1 0.87 1.00 0.87 7 lDdWDdll 22 Rotherham United (23) 8 1 4 3 8 12 -4 1.00 1.50 0.87 7 dDlDlWlD 23 Hartlepool United (21) 8 0 4 4 5 12 -7 0.62 1.50 0.50 4 LdDlDlLd 24 Milton Keynes Dons (24) 8 0 2 6 4 15 -11 0.50 1.87 0.25 2 lDlLldlLp.s. Unfortunately they seem to have our next away game down as a loss already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loderingo Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 I did two posts yesterday and came to almost the same conclusion.50 points could be enough, although, as everyone is beating everyone else, it's an awful division, I said 53 safe and it could be less than 70 to achieve the play offs.The Gills home form which is almost the best in the Division, only Forest have won more games, will keep them up and, if they ever start winning away don't write them off for the play offs.Yeovil could be a good bet as they have lost key players and have Skiverton, their Sean Taylor out for two months.City now out to 5/1 for relegation and 9th favourites. Port Vale now 8th favourites.Sporting Index gives a current spread of 56-57.5 points for City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thornbury Red Posted January 30, 2006 Report Share Posted January 30, 2006 Update!To avoid relegation based on last weeks calculations 16 games left 17 Points relegation should be avoided, 36 Points for play offs5 Wins, 2 Draws & 9 Defeats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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