Look at it this way ...

[RedUn]

At the start of every season 2pts per game is quoted as a reasonable target for a team that wants to achieve promotion.

After the first half-dozen games or so very few clubs will be up to that mark and those that are will either be in the top spots or have games in hand. So, throughout the season it provides a very useful yardstick against which to measure promotion expectations (or pretensions?). For example, the number of points a team is short of that target is the number of consecutive victories it needs to get back to it; thus City's high water mark this term was after the win at Bournemouth when we had gleaned 21pts from 11 matches (1pt or 1 win behind schedule).

Much has been made of the recent unbeaten run (including 11 league matches) but at its start we were 5pts behind schedule and at its end still 4pts short, courtesy of drawing too often ... perhaps we might do well to remember Geoff Boycott's advice about cricket scores - "just imagine two quick wickets fall for a better idea of the match situation" - because two defeats on the trot has put us eight straight wins off target (the only good news is that even the leaders are four behind it).

I'm sorry to say that my perception is that results have been somewhat better than performances all season; dramatic improvement is needed if we are to mount a serious challenge for automatic promotion ... only four times in the last 16 league matches have we scored the first goal of the match that as previously mentioned is a significant sympton of the real problem ... which (to quote Gary Johnson today!) is a lack of quality in front of the opponents' goal.

[exiledinwatford]

At the start of every season 2pts per game is quoted as a reasonable target for a team that wants to achieve promotion.

After the first half-dozen games or so very few clubs will be up to that mark and those that are will either be in the top spots or have games in hand. So, throughout the season it provides a very useful yardstick against which to measure promotion expectations (or pretensions?). For example, the number of points a team is short of that target is the number of consecutive victories it needs to get back to it; thus City's high water mark this term was after the win at Bournemouth when we had gleaned 21pts from 11 matches (1pt behind schedule).

Much has been made of the recent unbeaten run (including 11 league matches) but at its start we were 5pts behind schedule and at its end still 4pts, courtesy of drawing too often ... perhaps we might do well to remember Geoff Boycott's advice about cricket scores - "just imagine two quick wickets fall for a better idea of the match situation" - because two defeats on the trot has put us eight straight wins off target (the only good news is that even the leaders are four behind it).

I'm sorry to say that my perception is that results have been somewhat better than performances all season; dramatic improvement is needed if we are to mount a serious challenge for automatic promotion ... only four times in the last 16 league matches have we scored the first goal of the match that as previously mentioned is a significant sympton of the real problem ... which (to quote Gary Johnson today!) is a lack of quality in front of the opponents' goal.

And who would have thought we lacked quality in front of goal after watching our cup games against Gills, Coventry (H & A) and Middlesbrough? Could it be that we approach these games as one-off must win games? Seems to me that our league games will be like this soon enough.

[robins72]

Face it we don't kill off teams. When do we ever use our physical presence when it matters? When have we turned teams over at the gate this season? Only game I remember is Chesterfield when we won 3-1 and obviously the fantastic win at Oldham. The other matches have been won narrowly by a goal. A wins a win in my eyes but would be nice to see us hurt teams more than we usually do.

[RedUn]

Face it we don't kill off teams. When do we ever use our physical presence when it matters? When have we turned teams over at the gate this season? Only game I remember is Chesterfield when we won 3-1 and obviously the fantastic win at Oldham. The other matches have been won narrowly by a goal. A wins a win in my eyes but would be nice to see us hurt teams more than we usually do.

Good example Lisa - Chesterfield is one of only four matches this season where our shots per goal ratio has been better than what (IMHO) a promotion team's attack will average all season! ... the others being Gillingham and Tranmere at AG and Oldham away.

[robins72]

My comments on radio Bristol on boxing day may come back to haunt me again come May. I mentioned how we would suffer if we didnt buy a prolofic goalscorer this season. Sadly with injuries to Jevons and Brooker and also Enoch we have not had a settled strikeforce. Scunny have Sharp, Oldham Porter, Forest Tyson, we don't have that. This could cost us dearly come the end of the season unless we can manage to get Brooker playing more than 2 games without getting injured/sick. Is this possible?

[RedUn]

My comments on radio Bristol on boxing day may come back to haunt me again come May. I mentioned how we would suffer if we didnt buy a prolofic goalscorer this season. Sadly with injuries to Jevons and Brooker and also Enoch we have not had a settled strikeforce. Scunny have Sharp, Oldham Porter, Forest Tyson, we don't have that. This could cost us dearly come the end of the season unless we can manage to get Brooker playing more than 2 games without getting injured/sick. Is this possible?

"It is possible, just very very unlikely" (as someone once said in Hitch-hikers Guide to the Galaxy) ... I'm pretty sure we won't get far playing midfielders like Betsy as a "fox in the box".

[robins72]

"It is possible, just very very unlikely" (as someone once said in Hitch-hikers Guide to the Galaxy) ... I'm pretty sure we won't get far playing midfielders like Betsy as a "fox in the box".

Well if you play a right winger upfront what do you expect? Murray never looks the biz upfront either. He didnt look comfortable playing as a striker either. So I hope that Jevons is fit enough to play on Saturday and BEtsy can then move back to his favoured position on the wing. Or even on the bench if Johnson chooses to use Wilson on the left and Murray on the right wing.

[PhatWill]

Forget the 2 points a game target. It matters not when the league is as tight as it is. It's turning into a 4/5 horse race for two spots. Victory on Saturday and we are right back in the hunt, fact. This league will be won in April when we have 2/3 six-pointers...and luckily they will all be at Ashton Gate.

If we're playing the guessing game, then I'd suggest 84+ points will be good enough for a top 2 spot. We need to win 9/10 of our last 16 games.

It's going to go to the wire!

[Bristol Boy]

We have 16 games left, thus 48 points to play for and, based on the average number of points needed for second place over the last five seasons, 84 points should do it, with last seasons 79, by Colchester, being the lowest and 86 in two previous seasons, being the highest.

That means we need 32 points-or we can drop 16, depending on how you look at it-As the original poster said, two points a game from here on in should just about do it.

P16 W10 D3 L3 Pts..33..Final Total 85......and that seems realistic to me.

Of the teams in the top ten, we have to play those 3/5/6th (Forest, Yeo, Swansea) at home & 7/8/10th (Blackpool, Doncaster, Carlisle)away having played 7/10 home & away.Mind you, given our form against some of the bottom teams, that may not be a comfort.

It's definetly on. but we need more Oldham performances than Cheltm & S****horpe.

It's OK assking the fans to believe-The players are the ones who really need to convince them.

[RedUn]

We have 16 games left, thus 48 points to play for and, based on the average number of points needed for second place over the last five seasons, 84 points should do it ... that means we need 32 points-or we can drop 16, depending on how you look at it-As the original poster said, two points a game from here on in should just about do it.

Exactly right BB - even to reach 84 pts we need to be hitting the 2pts per game target that has proved beyond us so far ...

It's OK assking the fans to believe-The players are the ones who really need to convince them.

... right again, you're on a roll!

[Nibor]

I'm sorry to say that my perception is that results have been somewhat better than performances all season;

Agree with everything you've posted but this most of all.

We've had flashes of brilliance this season and shown a doggedness on occasion to fight back from behind, however we've also shown a propensity for loss of concentration in defence and to bottle it when we have the chance to put some distance behind us.

If we don't go up this season it won't be the last two games I'll look back on. It will be the time around Xmas in the middle of our unbeaten run when we had disappointing draws with Cheltenham and Bournemouth. That was a real opportunity to hit the 2 points per game target and put real pressure on our immediate rivals who all had harder fixtures and mediocre results.

[CiderJar]

Exactly right BB - even to reach 84 pts we need to be hitting the 2pts per game target that has proved beyond us so far ...

... right again, you're on a roll!

However, last year after 30 games we had 35 points and finished on 65 - another couple of points on that run (for example if we had beaten Swindon instead of drawing) and that is your 84 points.

You should note that at the end of January in the last three seasons the eventual champions Southend, Luton and Plymouth had 54, 59 and 59 points respectively. Wigan had an exceptional season in having 68 points at the end of January.

This season is close but 80 points may yet be enough.

This time last year - ish

[Eddie]

Agree with everything you've posted but this most of all.

If we don't go up this season it won't be the last two games I'll look back on. It will be the time around Xmas in the middle of our unbeaten run when we had disappointing draws with Cheltenham and Bournemouth. That was a real opportunity to hit the 2 points per game target and put real pressure on our immediate rivals who all had harder fixtures and mediocre results.

If we do go up this season It wont be the last 2 games I'll look back on. It will be games like Tranmere at home where we pulled it out the bag from 2-0 down.

We are not as good as many of you lot were saying after the Oldham game, and not as bad as you are saying after the last 2 games.

There are too many knee jerk posts flying around for my liking, we are in the shake up and have a good enough team to get out of this league-and I would have taken that back in August.

[mossey]

My comments on radio Bristol on boxing day may come back to haunt me again come May. I mentioned how we would suffer if we didnt buy a prolofic goalscorer this season. Sadly with injuries to Jevons and Brooker and also Enoch we have not had a settled strikeforce. Scunny have Sharp, Oldham Porter, Forest Tyson, we don't have that. This could cost us dearly come the end of the season unless we can manage to get Brooker playing more than 2 games without getting injured/sick. Is this possible?

agreed, disappointing isn't it, after the money we've made from the sale of cotterill, cup run etc, how much did we spend, not much, fun though they are , i think these cup comp could get in the way and ruin our chance of promotion, my view the best we can hope for, after not signing a goal scorer is a top 6 finish.

[Socrates]

I'm not too worried about the last 2 games as that always happens in League One. A team can be as good as they want for 2-3 months, but there's always a couple of stinking performances around the corner. Get back on track on Saturday with a good result against Huddersfield and the last 2 games will be quickly forgotten.

84 points may be the benchmark that everyone is talking about, but it could be less with teams constantly dropping points at the top. It's so tight up there and everyone is dropping points against everyone else. We can only wait and see.

I still believe.

[Port Said Red]

I'm not too worried about the last 2 games as that always happens in League One. A team can be as good as they want for 2-3 months, but there's always a couple of stinking performances around the corner. Get back on track on Saturday with a good result against Huddersfield and the last 2 games will be quickly forgotten.

84 points may be the benchmark that everyone is talking about, but it could be less with teams constantly dropping points at the top. It's so tight up there and everyone is dropping points against everyone else. We can only wait and see.

I still believe.

I agree, no one else is hitting 2 points a game either and we only have to do better than 22 others to get auto. The Oldham fans were ready to crown us champions after the game up there so things can change rapidly for everyone else as well.

This is similar to those people who said after we recorded our fourth defeat that we couldn't go up if we lost more than 6/7 games, well there isn't any side likely to achieve that in this league now.

[RedUn]

We are not as good as many of you lot were saying after the Oldham game, and not as bad as you are saying after the last 2 games. There are too many knee jerk posts flying around for my liking ...

Yet the original post on this thread specifically addressed performance patterns across all 30 league games (31 now).

... we are in the shake up...

True

... and have a good enough team to get out of this league.

That remains to be seen doesn't it?

[RedUn]

We have 16 games left, thus 48 points to play for and, based on the average number of points needed for second place over the last five seasons, 84 points should do it

... now, of course, to achieve even 84pts requires better than 2pts/game over the remaining matches! ... and I'm afraid I can't see where the missing sharpness in attack is supposed to come from ... any ideas anyone?